Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Kanon]

Also, it should cross 300M today to become the 6th fastest to 300M

Currently projecting a 420M DOM total

1-Star Wars: The Force Awakens (5 days to $325,438,146)
2-Jurassic World (8 days to $325,326,090)
3-Marvel's The Avengers (9 days to $342,148,409)
4-The Dark Knight (10 days to $313,781,677)
5-Avengers: Age of Ultron (10 days to $313,402,397)
6-Captain America: Civil War (11 days to a proyected $300M, or 12 days to a proyected 305.5M-306M)
7-The Dark Knight Rises (12 days to $304,045,972)
8-The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (12 days to $303,708,162)
9-Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (14 days to $305,522,774)
10-Iron Man 3 (14 days to $301,891,883)

 

[Kanon]

59%, actually - and considering it's the eighth-largest second weekend of all-time, and is on a similar track as Iron Man 3 and Avengers: Age of Ultron, I'd say it's pretty ideal.

59.5% is the exact same drop than Furious 7, and with a bigger OW. I think we are OK. It's not great, it's not a tragedy. It's a very, very decent 2nd weekend drop.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Per Gitesh it looks like the final weekend number will be around $72.8 million, or -59.4%. Prior May releases AoU and IM2 also dropped 59.4% on their sophomore weekends, and IM3 dropped 58.4%. So pretty much par for the course.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Hoping CW holds up better in the next few weeks before the next big blockbuster aka X Men

 

[Iceman]

It's looking decent, maybe not spectacular, but nothing negative either.

 

[Erzengel]

Before X-Men opens in the States, CW will probably get another $65M.

 

[Kanon]

Before X-Men opens in the States, CW will probably get another $65M.

Yeah, and the drops from then on will determine if it gets to 400M (I think 450M if pretty much off the table now, unless everything else flops big time and CW has a magical second wind)

 

[Tony Stark]

I'm curious with the new films this week if CW can stay no. 1 for 3 weeks. I think Neighbors 2 looks like a flop. Angry Birds is teetering on being rated rotten on RT. Nice guys is getting good reviews, but I don't see it being a big draw.

Both AoU and IM3 had 50% drops in week 3, if that holds for CW we'd be looking around 36-37M. That should be a low number to beat, but the only film I think capable would be Angry Birds, but I don't have tracking numbers for any of the new films this week.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yeah, and the drops from then on will determine if it gets to 400M (I think 450M if pretty much off the table now, unless everything else flops big time and CW has a magical second wind)

Well, CW was $5 million ahead of IM3 (total $409 million domestic) after the first weekend and will be about $11 million ahead after this weekend, so I think $400 million is still safe. But yeah, 450 is gone unless something weird happens. My guess right now is that it ends up in the 420s.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Yeah, and the drops from then on will determine if it gets to 400M (I think 450M if pretty much off the table now, unless everything else flops big time and CW has a magical second wind)

Right. $450M isn't a guarantee. This magical second wind is called Memorial Day weekend. Also once summer vacation starts, that may give CW longer legs and possibly even a slight boost. Anything is possible. The newer films coming out may suffer in quality and may lead audiences to be more picky with what they spend their money watching. This would lend a boost and long legs to the movies we are seeing having a very healthy weekly BO. Ironically enough all of them are from the House of Disney.

 

[samsnee]

I think Neighbors 2 will do well. First one was a hit and we haven't had a good r-rated comedy in awhile.

 

[AvengerPA]

 

[ImSGirl95]

I think Neighbors 2 will do well. First one was a hit and we haven't had a good r-rated comedy in awhile.

"Sisters" was pretty good!

 

[Chesterfield]

Beautiful but I think it belongs in a different thread, buddy.

 

[Kanon]

Gitesh Pandya @GiteshPandya

#CaptainAmericaCivilWar finished wknd $250k above #Disney estimates at about $72.8M. Wknd drop inched lower from 59.5% to 59.4%.

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/732213444578054145

China Box Office ‏@ChinaBoxOffice

CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR earned est. $3.0M on Monday. China's total stands at $158.9M. #CaptainAmerica #CivilWar

https://***********/ChinaBoxOffice/status/732222624839966720

 

[third3ye]

Probably looking at somewhere around a $400m DOM and around $900m OS for final cume, so neighborhood of $1.3b WW, about 5% below AoU. Looks like the pre-release tracking reports were way too optimistic. Still a small chance this could reach $1b OS but another extra $100m taking this up to $1.4b and matching AoU is probably the most this will reach on the high side.

It's interesting that a Captain America title is playing much stronger OS than what's to be expected, the DOM/OS split is more or less like an Avengers title.

 

[KangConquers]

Well, CW was $5 million ahead of IM3 (total $409 million domestic) after the first weekend and will be about $11 million ahead after this weekend, so I think $400 million is still safe. But yeah, 450 is gone unless something weird happens. My guess right now is that it ends up in the 420s.

This is almost exactly at the same figure as Hunger Games: Catching Fire domestic, which wound up at $424 M.

 

[Logan0327]

I'm curious with the new films this week if CW can stay no. 1 for 3 weeks. I think Neighbors 2 looks like a flop. Angry Birds is teetering on being rated rotten on RT. Nice guys is getting good reviews, but I don't see it being a big draw.

Both AoU and IM3 had 50% drops in week 3, if that holds for CW we'd be looking around 36-37M. That should be a low number to beat, but the only film I think capable would be Angry Birds, but I don't have tracking numbers for any of the new films this week.

The Angry Birds Movie has opened at #1 in 3 international markets with $43 million. It set a record for the opening of an original animated film in May. The film opens this weekend in the United States, China and South Korea.

so i wont count Angry Birds out

 

[Tony Stark]

I figured the branding of Angry Birds would be enough to be a draw, although the ratings are abysmal, but the production value on this one looks high, so that will probably put butts in the seats.

I just see Neighbors 2 as being a big flop. It's a sequel that no one asked for, and again dangerously close to being rotten after sitting at 66% with only 41 reviews in hand.

If Angry Birds opens over 45M it's going to be no. 1, if it's below 45, CW might have a chance, but really it needs to open under 40 for CW to have a real shot as I'm guessing it's following a AoU/IM3 tracking.

There's a chance Neighbors could tussle with CW at no 2, but I think CW will come out on top.

 

[warcam]

My point was, as far as DOM goes: despite having higher ratings than AoU and IM3, CW still opened with less and experienced a similar drop in its second week. Perhaps these characters have simply reached their zenith. I predict $32 mil +/- this weekend, despite LucDisfilm19's best efforts.

 

[JB33]

My point was, as far as DOM goes: despite having higher ratings than AoU and IM3, CW still opened with less and experienced a similar drop in its second week. Perhaps these characters have simply reached their zenith. I predict $32 mil +/- this weekend, despite LucDisfilm19's best efforts.

I'm hoping for around $36M to $37M over its 3rd weekend.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Current global total for Civil War is $943.1M. I'm hoping it ends up with $1.32B WW and that it ends its global run with $430M domestically.

 

[Logan0327]

I figured the branding of Angry Birds would be enough to be a draw, although the ratings are abysmal, but the production value on this one looks high, so that will probably put butts in the seats.

I just see Neighbors 2 as being a big flop. It's a sequel that no one asked for, and again dangerously close to being rotten after sitting at 66% with only 41 reviews in hand.

If Angry Birds opens over 45M it's going to be no. 1, if it's below 45, CW might have a chance, but really it needs to open under 40 for CW to have a real shot as I'm guessing it's following a AoU/IM3 tracking.

There's a chance Neighbors could tussle with CW at no 2, but I think CW will come out on top.

RT dont really affect kids films too much go look at 2015's animated film Home it has a 46% on RT and had a 52 million opening weekend

 

[JB33]

$72.64M 2nd weekend for Captain America: Civil War

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya 9m9 minutes ago
Final wknd gross for #CaptainAmericaCivilWar comes in at $72,637,142. Decline of 59.5% from opening wknd. $295,966,220 cume.

That's the 8th biggest 2nd weekend of all time, narrowly ahead of Iron Man 3 and about $1.5M behind The Hunger Games: Catching Fire.

 

[Iceman]

Yep, it's in the chasing pack for 2nd weekend. Only TFA, JW & TA are significantly ahead of it.