Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[gerrym51]

1.9 million saturday in China

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Kinda OT but not really...I wouldn't be surprised if XMA comes under it's 82.2 4-day projection.

Well based on Friday's numbers I might be right.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

How many theaters did CW lose this weekend? And how will that play into it's quest for 400 dom?

 

[JB33]

How many theaters did CW lose this weekend? And how will that play into it's quest for 400 dom?

It's down to 3,395 theatres this weekend so it lost 831.

 

[Iceman]

Taking its time to get to the $400m mark. Hope it can move up in the all time worldwide list before it slows down too much.

 

[JB33]

Taking its time to get to the $400m mark. Hope it can move up in the all time worldwide list before it slows down too much.

My guess is it will sit between $390M and $392M by the end of next weekend. It will definitely pass $400M but we're already close to the crawl stage.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah, I thought it might have a little more momentum left but the crawl stage will soon be upon us.

 

[Spiderine]

I would say it has done extremely well to cross that 400 mil domestic mark. And its well over a billion. About what I expected being on the heels of BvsS.

 

[SamWinchester]

Deadline predicts that Civil War will end up with $425 million domestic revenue before it's pulled from Theaters. That would be a solid number if it actually hits $425. The only other Super Hero films that would have passed that amount would be Avengers, Dark Knight, Avengers Age of Ultron, and Dark Knight Rises. My Prediction was $440 million and $800.00 million world wide I wasn't off too bad if it hits $750 world wide and $425 domestic. I thought it was silly people was saying $500 million plus and $900 million or a billion over seas. I figured the ceiling was 1.4 world wide due to Age of Ultron not being well liked, a Cap film in name, saturation and BVS being polarizing that the ceiling was Age of Ultron numbers.

 

[Iceman]

The film was so good that I thought there would be more rewatches. Although they should have done a better job of containing leaks.

 

[SamWinchester]

Do you think Civil War would have made more money if it swapped places with BVS?

 

[SamWinchester]

The film was so good that I thought there would be more rewatches. Although they should have done a better job of containing leaks.

My Dad who is 59 years old who saw the movie is going to buy the Bluray when it's comes out for home release and he is a man that only purchases a movie if it's really good. Last movie he bought was Django Unchained. My Dad is not the type to go watch the film again in the theatre. I think the Home Video sales are going to be really good when it comes out for DVD, BluRay, and Digital.

 

[Iceman]

Do you think Civil War would have made more money if it swapped places with BVS?

Possibly, it's hard to tell. Even if it did there's no way of knowing how other films are going to do. BvS could easily have done really well and made people more excited to see another big superhero film.

My Dad who is 59 years old who saw the movie is going to buy the Bluray when it's comes out for home release and he is a man that only purchases a movie if it's really good. Last movie he bought was Django Unchained. My Dad is not the type to go watch the film again in the theatre. I think the Home Video sales are going to be really good when it comes out for DVD, BluRay, and Digital.

I'm sure this will do amazingly on all those formats.

 

[meanmc]

Maybe it sounds silly, but i am a bit disappointed with the numbers...

It is a great film, lots of buzz, Cap vs. Iron Man, "almost all Avengers (and more)", Spider-Man in the MCU, Black Panther first time on the big screen...

I do not get it, that the movie already slowed down a lot...
I have no idea WHY!?

 

[SamWinchester]

Maybe it sounds silly, but i am a bit disappointed with the numbers...

It is a great film, lots of buzz, Cap vs. Iron Man, "almost all Avengers (and more)", Spider-Man in the MCU, Black Panther first time on the big screen...

I do not get it, that the movie already slowed down a lot...
I have no idea WHY!?

In my opinion Super Hero saturation, BVS not being liked by the general audience (I thought it was average not the best superhero movie not the worst on par with Age of Ultron) and people feeling that they don't want to get burned and Age of Ultron the last big Marvel movie being a let down.

 

[Spiderine]

A high profile movie that basically had the same premise being released about a month before played a big role. One that was disappointing with critics and audiences alike.

Civil War did well to get what its getting.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

You guys are just being ridiculous. I think many of us MCU fanboys have completely unrealistic expectations for these films. CW made a billion and looks like a lock for at least $400M DOM. Those are insanely good numbers, specifically considering that regardless of who else is in this film it is still a Cap film. Summer blockbusters and, CBMs in general, are always predominately front-loaded. IMO BvS in no way hurt this film because the GA is not that dumb, they are capable of understanding 2 different studios made each film and most are well aware of what to expect with a Marvel Studios product.

it seems we have reached the plateau of where we can expect this single outing films to gross. The downside of having the connected universe is there are going to be those who don't want to watch the individual movies because they haven't watched the other films in the MCU so they don't feel they would get the most enjoyment out of it. Plain and simple. The longer we have this connected universe the more films people will feel like they have to watch to really get what is going on and that's what puts a cap on the MCU. It's a double-edged sword.

 

[JB33]

Deadline predicts that Civil War will end up with $425 million domestic revenue before it's pulled from Theaters. That would be a solid number if it actually hits $425. The only other Super Hero films that would have passed that amount would be Avengers, Dark Knight, Avengers Age of Ultron, and Dark Knight Rises. My Prediction was $440 million and $800.00 million world wide I wasn't off too bad if it hits $750 world wide and $425 domestic. I thought it was silly people was saying $500 million plus and $900 million or a billion over seas. I figured the ceiling was 1.4 world wide due to Age of Ultron not being well liked, a Cap film in name, saturation and BVS being polarizing that the ceiling was Age of Ultron numbers.

Good call on the $800M foreign gross. A lot of people - I was one of them - thought $900M or even $950M foreign was agiven.

I think what threw a lot of us off was the opening in China happening at the same time as here in NA. It had a $200M foreign opening, which is right on par with A: AoU and IM3, but the big difference is the CW opening INCLUDED China, whereas the other films opened to $200M with China still to come. That means the opening in foreign markets minus China was not nearly as big as the other billion dollar Marvel films, which is I guess what I would have expected in the first place, given its a CAPTAIN AMERICA film.

 

[JB33]

You guys are just being ridiculous. I think many of us MCU fanboys have completely unrealistic expectations for these films. CW made a billion and looks like a lock for at least $400M DOM. Those are insanely good numbers, specifically considering that regardless of who else is in this film it is still a Cap film. Summer blockbusters and, CBMs in general, are always predominately front-loaded. IMO BvS in no way hurt this film because the GA is not that dumb, they are capable of understanding 2 different studios made each film and most are well aware of what to expect with a Marvel Studios product.

it seems we have reached the plateau of where we can expect this single outing films to gross. The downside of having the connected universe is there are going to be those who don't want to watch the individual movies because they haven't watched the other films in the MCU so they don't feel they would get the most enjoyment out of it. Plain and simple. The longer we have this connected universe the more films people will feel like they have to watch to really get what is going on and that's what puts a cap on the MCU. It's a double-edged sword.

I respect your opinion but nobody is being ridiculous at all. These are all fair comments.

 

[JB33]

Maybe it sounds silly, but i am a bit disappointed with the numbers...

It is a great film, lots of buzz, Cap vs. Iron Man, "almost all Avengers (and more)", Spider-Man in the MCU, Black Panther first time on the big screen...

I do not get it, that the movie already slowed down a lot...
I have no idea WHY!?

It's not silly at all. It doesn't mean the movie isn't still doing fantastic business, but the legs for this movie are indeed lower than a lot of us thought.

That's the part that some of you don't get. Nobody is complaining about the pure amount of money. We're just surprised at the drops. That's a totally different discussion than pure dollars.

 

[KangConquers]

Didn't this movie, despite it's superior critic reviews, get the same cinescore as AoU and IM3?

When you consider that, it's legs are more understandable. People liked this movie, but not to the level of the original Avengers. The big difference between Avengers/ AoU was probably repeat viewing. I imagine the number of individuals domestically that saw Avengers, but not AoU is not as big as the gap would suggest, and is probably more akin to the difference between their OWs than the difference between their domestic totals.

I know I personally saw IM3 once, Civil War twice, AoU twice, and Avengers 5 times in theaters. I'm past the point in my life where I want to sit in a theater 4-5 times and see the same film, no matter how much I like it.

 

[JB33]

Didn't this movie, despite it's superior critic reviews, get the same cinescore as AoU and IM3?

When you consider that, it's legs are more understandable. People liked this movie, but not to the level of the original Avengers. The big difference between Avengers/ AoU was probably repeat viewing. I imagine the number of individuals domestically that saw Avengers, but not AoU is not as big as the gap would suggest, and is probably more akin to the difference between their OWs than the difference between their domestic totals.

I know I personally saw IM3 once, Civil War twice, AoU twice, and Avengers 5 times in theaters. I'm past the point in my life where I want to sit in a theater 4-5 times and see the same film, no matter how much I like it.

Yeah, that's probably it right there. Maybe there isn't necessarily any fatigue. The same amount of people are going to see this movie, but repeat viewing is down.

Combine that with the theory that IM3's numbers were inflated, both in terms of pure dollars and legs, and it puts this movie's box office performance into perspective.

All that to say, it's doing great and I'm satisfied, especially when I don't compare it to the outlier that is IM3 and with the knowledge that this is the 13th film in the MCU, which means repeat viewing is going to be down.

 

[gerrym51]

Deadline predicts that Civil War will end up with $425 million domestic revenue before it's pulled from Theaters. That would be a solid number if it actually hits $425. The only other Super Hero films that would have passed that amount would be Avengers, Dark Knight, Avengers Age of Ultron, and Dark Knight Rises. My Prediction was $440 million and $800.00 million world wide I wasn't off too bad if it hits $750 world wide and $425 domestic. I thought it was silly people was saying $500 million plus and $900 million or a billion over seas. I figured the ceiling was 1.4 world wide due to Age of Ultron not being well liked, a Cap film in name, saturation and BVS being polarizing that the ceiling was Age of Ultron numbers.

i do not believe this movie will get much over 400 million domestic or 750 million overseas

thats still a lot of money though

 

[StormC]

Avengers could be watched as a totally stand alone and be understood, which definitely helped contribute to its BO. AOU and CW are both too deep into the MCU plotlines to have that privilege; whoever said these movies are going to play more like the Harry Potter films from here on out was on the money.

Personally, I saw this four times in theaters, and the only MCU movies I saw more than once otherwise was IM and Avengers - both twice. I'm sure there are still plenty of people who see it tons of times, but the franchise is in so deep that it's going to be harder to get non-fans interested at this point. Thankfully, the fanbase for the MCU, even casual fans, is very massive.

My only hope was it would beat Iron Man 3, but seeing Iron Man 3 as the exception to the rule has made it more understandable.

 

[Mysteryman]

i do not believe this movie will get much over 400 million domestic or 750 million overseas

thats still a lot of money though

I think 425 million is doable.