Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Iceman]

I think the positive reviews for Civil War is going to help pave the way for Infinity War. I do think the mixed reactions to AOU might have hurt CW's box office a little bit, but I think the strong reception of CW along with Russo Bros. helming AOU will pay dividends down the road. And CW will gross over 1 billion when it's all said and done, and as we can see from this year ago, 1 billion is by no means guaranteed.

I enjoyed AoU but it did take a bit of the sheen off the MCU and I think capped the potential of it to the GA. Hopefully CW and the next few Phase 3 films can get that back. Will happen if the other films are as good as CW.

 

[I Am The Knight]

It's entertaining to see Ajeje grasping for straws.

Heh, yeah. Even when casually reading the JL boards you can find him making some kind of derogatory comment about the MCU

 

[Stark Bauer]

I'm hoping CW somehow beats AoU's $459M total. CW was overall a better film in so many ways. And I think the quality should reflect this with longer legs and as a result, a higher BO. I updated (lowered) my prediction.

Weekly Total (Not Weekend) Prediction
W2 100 (-55%)
W3 55 (-45%)
W4 35 (-36%) Memorial Day weekend
W5 20 (-43%)
W6 10 (-50%)
W7 5 (-50%)
W8 4 (-27%)
W9 3 (-22%)
W10-W20 5M

237 remaining weeks + 223.3

Final prediction total: 460.3 M

 

[brandeezy89]

I'm hoping CW somehow beats AoU's $459M total. CW was overall a better film in so many ways. And I think the quality should reflect a higher BO. I updated (lowered) my prediction.

Weekly Total (Not Weekend) Prediction
W2 102 (-54%)
W3 51 (-50%)
W4 30 (-41%)
W5 15 (-50%)
W6 8.5 (-43%)
W7 4.4 (-50%)
W8 3.2 (-27%)
W9 2.5 (-22%)
W10-W20 4M

220.6 remaining weeks

Final prediction total: 443.9 M

I would go lower, Angry Birds and Neighbors 2 come out next week then X-Men and Alice after. If it's already dropping lower than the predictions then I would assume that it will drop harder because of those movies unfortunately. I think the WW total will end up around 1.2M, maybe a little lower

 

[Johnny-Oh]

I think the positive reviews for Civil War is going to help pave the way for Infinity War. I do think the mixed reactions to AOU might have hurt CW's box office a little bit, but I think the strong reception of CW along with Russo Bros. helming AOU will pay dividends down the road. And CW will gross over 1 billion when it's all said and done, and as we can see from this year ago, 1 billion is by no means guaranteed.

Let's not use this as an excuse, please! AoU was a huge success, it underperfomed domestically but it did amazingly well overseas. If your logic that previous films affect the newer ones was true, AoU wouldn't have debuted with lower numbers than TA. But now y'all wanna blame AoU for your unreasonable expectations for Civil War

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Let's not use this as an excuse, please! AoU was a huge success, it underperfomed domestically but it did amazingly well overseas. If your logic that previous films affect the newer ones was true, AoU wouldn't have debuted with lower numbers than TA. But now y'all wanna blame AoU for your unreasonable expectations for Civil War

I wonder how much Civil War will end up with overseas. I mean it's made much more than what Avengers 1 made in 12 days. Maybe it'll end up getting in between Avengers 1 and 2 overseas.

 

[Stark Bauer]

I would go lower, Angry Birds and Neighbors 2 come out next week then X-Men and Alice after. If it's already dropping lower than the predictions then I would assume that it will drop harder because of those movies unfortunately. I think the WW total will end up around 1.2M, maybe a little lower

I think IM3 is the floor and AoU is the ceiling for CW. $433 would be a safe prediction. I adjusted my prediction to $460 M domestic. International has way more legs it seems.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I think IM3 is the floor and AoU is the ceiling for CW. $433 would be a safe prediction. I adjusted my prediction to $460 M domestic. International has way more legs it seems.

Agreed. Things seem to better for Civil War overseas than in the US, surprisingly.

 

[Solaire]

Let's not use this as an excuse, please! AoU was a huge success, it underperfomed domestically but it did amazingly well overseas. If your logic that previous films affect the newer ones was true, AoU wouldn't have debuted with lower numbers than TA. But now y'all wanna blame AoU for your unreasonable expectations for Civil War

Is it just the Internet forums that sees AoU as some kind of huge failure? I thought that film had a pretty good RT and audience score. You'd think the movie was Spider-Man 3, Fantastic 4 type of bad the way some speak about it. It also lead to this Whedon hate which I find so ridiculous.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I think IM3 is the floor and AoU is the ceiling for CW. $433 would be a safe prediction. I adjusted my prediction to $460 M domestic. International has way more legs it seems.

I'm also gonna agree with $433M domestically for Civil War as well, just because if it reaches that number it's earned all its budget and P&A marketing money back.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Is it just the Internet forums that sees AoU as some kind of huge failure? I thought that film had a pretty good RT and audience score. You'd think the movie was Spider-Man 3, Fantastic 4 type of bad the way some speak about it. It also lead to this Whedon hate which I find so ridiculous.

I thought AoU was a more intelligent movie than TA, however it suffered from being a less enjoyable popcorn flick. It is mostly the hardcore fan base that thinks AoU was "disappointing". I wouldn't compare it with Spider Man 3 and F4...those were failures. AoU is closer to TDKR as it was still a decent follow up but not as bang for your buck and lost a bit of the newness and novelty factor from its predecessors.

 

[Iceman]

Let's not use this as an excuse, please! AoU was a huge success, it underperfomed domestically but it did amazingly well overseas. If your logic that previous films affect the newer ones was true, AoU wouldn't have debuted with lower numbers than TA. But now y'all wanna blame AoU for your unreasonable expectations for Civil War

This effect is well known for franchises domestically, don't know how long you've been following box office.

 

[TheVileOne]

Looks like 74%.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...ps-74-still-tops-800m-worldwide/#6a2656c62698

No it's not. I'm referring to weekend 1 drop to weekend 2.

 

[Johnny-Oh]

This effect is well known for franchises domestically, don't know how long you've been following box office.

I know that, but that isn't what I was talking about.

 

[kosh33]

32.6-32.8 m for saturday
http://deadline.com/2016/05/captain-america-money-monsterthe-darkness-box-office-weekend-1201755869/

 

[StormC]

I thought AoU was a more intelligent movie than TA, however it suffered from being a less enjoyable popcorn flick. It is mostly the hardcore fan base that thinks AoU was "disappointing". I wouldn't compare it with Spider Man 3 and F4...those were failures. AoU is closer to TDKR as it was still a decent follow up but not as bang for your buck and lost a bit of the newness and novelty factor from its predecessors.

I dunno about intelligent. To me it's a movie that is content to repeat many of the same beats as the first movie, but with way more subplots shoved in (and ironically too much cut leaving the audience to have to fill in the gaps) that sometimes kinda toys with deeper themes but only barely. TA is a simpler, but overall more effective movie.

And I liked AOU, but to me it had some very amateurish mistakes. I think the overall lack of ambition kept it from taking pop culture by storm like the first movie did; its BO got helped big time by growing international markets.

 

[spider-neil]

I dunno about intelligent. To me it's a movie that is content to repeat many of the same beats as the first movie, but with way more subplots shoved in (and ironically too much cut leaving the audience to have to fill in the gaps) that sometimes kinda toys with deeper themes but only barely. TA is a simpler, but overall more effective movie.

And I liked AOU, but to me it had some very amateurish mistakes. I think the overall lack of ambition kept it from taking pop culture by storm like the first movie did; its BO got helped big time by growin international markets.

After AoU I thought Marvel were well rid of Whedon. Making Ultron a snarky child was unforgivable as far as I'm concerned. The Russo brothers have shown that humur doesn't have to come at the expense of drama and tension. Also from a narrative and pacing stand point AoU was a MESS. Imagine Whedon on IW.

 

[spiderman2]

So before this movie came out I was thinking it was going to do 600m USA and 1billion OS for 1.6WW. Now has ever one can see it is not going to do 600m USA and 500m may not even be likely. So my question is how likely is it that this movie can at least do the 1 billion OS thing?

 

[spiderman2]

http://***********/ChinaBoxOffice/status/731513012612411393/photo/1

Is that good? Also with it being only about 55m short of 200m now and after only 2 weekends it should hit 200m right?

 

[StormC]

After AoU I thought Marvel were well rid of Whedon. Making Ultron a snarky child was unforgivable as far as I'm concerned. The Russo brothers have shown that human doesn't have to come at the expense of drama and tension. Also from a narrative and pacing stand point AoU was a MESS. Imagine Whedon on IW.

I thought Whedon was the perfect man for the job for TA, but I think he had trouble playing ball with Marvel's grand plan, and for some reason doubled down on the snarky humor (I guess because humor was a big part of TA's success?). I really enjoy the movie scene-by-scene, but altogether it's kind of a mess. The Russos are just blatantly better directors. CW makes AOU seem downright childish.

A three hour AOU could potentially have been great, but it shouldn't need to be three hours.

 

[spider-neil]

I thought Whedon was the perfect man for the job for TA, but I think he had trouble playing ball with Marvel's grand plan, and for some reason doubled down on the snarky humor (I guess because humor was a big part of TA's success?). I really enjoy the movie scene-by-scene, but altogether it's kind of a mess. The Russos are just blatantly better directors. CW makes AOU seem downright childish.

A three hour AOU could potentially have been great, but it shouldn't need to be three hours.

AoU turned out being what I 'thought' TA was going to be. A total mess.
TA works but AoU is all over the ********* place. I was confused a lot of the time and I've seen all the MCU movies AND I read the comics so who knows what the general audience were thinking watching that mess. The Russo brothers made a more coherent story with more characters, whilst introducing two new characters.

 

[Johnny-Oh]

Is it just the Internet forums that sees AoU as some kind of huge failure? I thought that film had a pretty good RT and audience score. You'd think the movie was Spider-Man 3, Fantastic 4 type of bad the way some speak about it. It also lead to this Whedon hate which I find so ridiculous.

Unfortunately with fanboys, movies are either awful or perfect, there is no in-between for them even though in reality movies are much more complicated than that. All the hate Whedon got is insane and the way so many try to undermine what he achieved with the Avengers is really stupid.

I thought AoU was a more intelligent movie than TA, however it suffered from being a less enjoyable popcorn flick. It is mostly the hardcore fan base that thinks AoU was "disappointing". I wouldn't compare it with Spider Man 3 and F4...those were failures. AoU is closer to TDKR as it was still a decent follow up but not as bang for your buck and lost a bit of the newness and novelty factor from its predecessors.

Yeah AoU was far more ambitious but unfortunately it didn't live up to its potential, it was good but it has a lot of flaws, some which were because of the studio forcing scenes into the film and stuff. Imagine the pressure of making the sequel to the highest grossing superhero movie of all time(which was already a huge challenge to begin with), nevermind that Whedon wrote and directed the movie on his own, why else do you think he's being replaced by 4 guys?

32.6-32.8 m for saturday
http://deadline.com/2016/05/captain-america-money-monsterthe-darkness-box-office-weekend-1201755869/

They're estimating a 61% drop which is a bit disappointing, still hoping for a <60% drop

 

[SomeOldGuy]

32.6-32.8 m for saturday
http://deadline.com/2016/05/captain-america-money-monsterthe-darkness-box-office-weekend-1201755869/

Better. That puts it on course for a "normal" 59% drop. I'm still hoping for a better than expected Sunday number too.

 

[Tilapia]

I think it is on to IW in terms of box office. You don't want to see AoU type numbers for part I, and then fall off a cliff domestically in part II, barely scratching Civil War numbers. You want to see growth, unlike what we saw with PoTC 3 and Matrix 3, which were massive disappointments critically and somewhat financially. You want to see LoTR OT type of growth, although that's a bit unrealistic as I consider that to be the best trilogy of all time. Sorry Star Wars fans.

There are just too many characters and stories to follow. Ultron was a bit silly. I think the audience just might be losing interest in this crop of characters. And shoving RDJ down our throats is going to hurt. I've posted elsewhere that I'd be really disappointed if he has a significant role in Spidey. Got to keep things fresh. I honestly think this group of Avengers will have run its course by Infinity War. Going two parts is a mistake. Time will tell.

 

[ernesth100]

You can't tell the story of Infinity Wars in one movie unless that movie is like 4+ hours long and no one in their right state of mind will sit through a 4 hour film.