Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[JB33]

Any chance CW can win its 3rd week?

Not a chance, not unless it has ridiculously good weekday holds in the realm of a 10% drop.

 

[Kanon]

What's going on is obvious. It's the dreaded and long expected "SUPERHERO FATIGUE."

 

[Ozbridge]

I think using the term "superhero fatigue" atm is too early. It's simply an inevitable downward trend after the peak that was The Avengers, TDKR and IM3 in 2012-2013. Though I'm sorry that that peak didn't last longer.

 

[gerrym51]

I think using the term "superhero fatigue" atm is too early. It's simply an inevitable downward trend after the peak that was The Avengers, TDKR and IM3 in 2012-2013. Though I'm sorry that that peak didn't last longer.

if you are at the point that you wait for PPV you have fatigue-lol

 

[Lilbaz]

How much money will superhero films take this year? I bet it's higher than any previous year.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Seems like "crappy box office weekend" is still the most likely explanation. Deadline's late-night update bumped CW up to $33 million again, but just about everything else saw slight declines. AB is now looking around $38 million, Neighbors 2 is down about a million from the last estimate, TJB now in the $10 million range, etc. if anything CW seems to be slightly bucking the trend as Sunday dawns. It'll be interesting to see how thing shake out.

http://deadline.com/2016/05/angry-birds-neighbors-2-the-nice-guys-weekend-box-office-1201760146/

 

[StormC]

How much money will superhero films take this year? I bet it's higher than any previous year.

Naturally, when you have the year with the highest amount of big superhero movies... ever, really.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

All this superhero fatigue talk makes me laugh. The genre is here to stay for the foreseeable future. A Captain America movie made a billion dollars. The MCU will be just fine.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

All this superhero fatigue talk makes me laugh. The genre is here to stay for the foreseeable future. A Captain America movie made a billion dollars. The MCU will be just fine.

Yeah, not seeing the SH fatigue thing. I do think you may be able to make a case for a sort of blockbuster fatigue at the moment. If you look at the top movies so far this year:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?view2=worldwide&yr=2016&p=.htm

the top 5 have all come out in a relatively short span, about 11 weeks, from Feb 12 to May 1. And they've all done summer mega hit numbers. And that's after TFA spent the last two weeks of December and January drawing an astonishing $2 billion out of global moviegoers' pockets.

In short people have spent a lot of money on movies this year already and it's not even summer yet. If they are little less willing to spring for repeat viewings I would not be surprised.

 

[JOE]

Yeah, superhero fatigue... Tell that to the 10B Marvel has made in the past 8 years.

 

[Raiden]

Yeah, superhero fatigue... Tell that to the 10B Marvel has made in the past 8 years.

Moviegoers do have fatigue...against bad superhero movies. Make it great and they will go see it, over and over again.

 

[JtheDreamer]

I really wish people would pay close attention to what's being discussed. Nobody's going over the top with the superhero fatigue thing (at least speaking for myself). We're commenting on the fact that, AL though it's far from a failure, the legs for Civil War are surprisingly underwhelming compared to Marvel's last two big May releases (AoU and IM3), especially when you consider CW's superior quality and critical reception.

Again, people are aware that this is still a huge, commercially successful movie. We get it. However, it's tracking to have a smaller 3rd weekend than even IM3, which is surprising and somewhat disappointing, at least for us box office gurus. This is a perfectly reasonable discussion.

It's no use man, they don't want to read between the lines. They'll just continue to mock it with sarcastic comments about superhero fatigue. Look at the BO performance of Marvel's big Avengers-style ensemble movies (i.e. Avengers, AOU, CW) - it's trending downward at the moment.

There is a distinct possibility that some "fatigue" can develop from certain characters overstaying their welcome, particularly in the MCU. The movie-going audience isn't the same as the comic book one in that regard.

 

[Ozbridge]

CW dropped 54.4% in 3rd weekend, estimated $33.114 million weekend and $347.39 million *** domestic.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2016&wknd=21&p=.htm

 

[SomeOldGuy]

It's no use man, they don't want to read between the lines. They'll just continue to mock it with sarcastic comments about superhero fatigue. Look at the BO performance of Marvel's big Avengers-style ensemble movies (i.e. Avengers, AOU, CW) - it's trending downward at the moment.

There is a distinct possibility that some "fatigue" can develop from certain characters overstaying their welcome, particularly in the MCU. The movie-going audience isn't the same as the comic book one in that regard.

Maybe, but I'm not sure the situations (CW vs. AoU and IM3) are comparable. Again, there have been an unprecedented number of huge hits so far this year. CW follows four movies that have made at least $763 million WW: Deadpool, Zootopia, The Jungle Book and BvS. Zoo may still hit $1 billion and TJB should top $900 million. Oh, and that doesn't count TFA, which did something like $700 million of its box office in 2016

To put it another way, in 2015 only 7 movies made more than Deadpool all year. This year we have 5 in 5 months (and 6 in 5 months if you count TFA's 2016 haul).

In 2015 AoU was preceded by just one smash, F7, and its box office was a bit odd in that it was driven by China. In 2013 IM3 was the first big hit of the year. The biggest movie before it was A Good Day to Die Hard, which did just $67 million domestic and $305 million WW.

I think what we're looking at here is more blockbuster fatigue than SH fatigue

 

[hafizbat]

I don't believe there's any superhero fatigue, Marvel is doing extremely well at the BO, and it'd be foolish to lose perspective of that when looking only at OW records and the difference between how much MORE than a billion.

At the same time, the shiny new toy feel has definitely worn off. You'll see that with all the huge BO record-breakers, they were either brand new and fresh (Avatar, The Avengers), or riding a huge wave of nostalgia and freshness (JW and TFA).

Now imagine having a Jurassic movie every summer, or Avatar or even Star Wars. That same level is just unsustainable. I mean, look at how "disappointing" CW is doing

If any CBM this year had a chance of doing better than TA, it probably would have been BVS. I think Marvel has reached the upper level in terms of BO. They've probably already foreseen this and are now focused on maintaining their current level (making billion dollar movies with their big guns) while bringing up their lower tier stuff (Thor is primed for that). We as fans should also adjust our expectations and realize that expecting new records and that cultural phenomenon feel is setting up for disappointment. While someday a Marvel movie might break the 2 Bil mark, their current model doesn't facilitate that, and that's completely okay.

Putting out consistently good-great movies that are doing very well at the BO and pleasing fans with their ever-expanding universe is a best case scenario, IMO.

 

[hafizbat]

Maybe, but I'm not sure the situations (CW vs. AoU and IM3) are comparable. Again, there have been an unprecedented number of huge hits so far this year. CW follows four movies that have made at least $763 million WW: Deadpool, Zootopia, The Jungle Book and BvS. Zoo may still hit $1 billion and TJB should top $900 million. Oh, and that doesn't count TFA, which did something like $700 million of its box office in 2016

To put it another way, in 2015 only 7 movies made more than Deadpool all year. This year we have 5 in 5 months (and 6 in 5 months if you count TFA's 2016 haul).

In 2015 AoU was preceded by just one smash, F7, and its box office was a bit odd in that it was driven by China. In 2013 IM3 was the first big hit of the year. The biggest movie before it was A Good Day to Die Hard, which did just $67 million domestic and $305 million WW.

I think what we're looking at here is more blockbuster fatigue than SH fatigue

Kinda strange to call it fatigue when you're quoting numbers that show that BO profits are up all across the board no?

Like I said, we need a little perspective in here.

 

[Erzengel]

When all is said and done, there'd be only 10 movies or so that have grossed more WW.

Here's where I'd say it was Superhero fatigue, if CW made only $750M.

 

[gerrym51]

CW made more in North America than it made overseas this weekend. Nearly 40 percent(12 million) was from china alone which only has 1 week left in it's run

North America is going to have to be the engine if it's going to exceed 1.1 million

 

[Ozbridge]

Maybe, but I'm not sure the situations (CW vs. AoU and IM3) are comparable. Again, there have been an unprecedented number of huge hits so far this year. CW follows four movies that have made at least $763 million WW: Deadpool, Zootopia, The Jungle Book and BvS. Zoo may still hit $1 billion and TJB should top $900 million. Oh, and that doesn't count TFA, which did something like $700 million of its box office in 2016

A bit off topic: Zootopia is locked to cross 1 billion according to BoxOfficeTheory.

Now imagine having a Jurassic movie every summer, or Avatar or even Star Wars. That same level is just unsustainable. I mean, look at how "disappointing" CW is doing

I think that when people mention CW as a disappointment, they are referring to the fact that it doesn't bring additional profit compared to AoU or IM3 (though both movies are still "fresher" than CW I guess). CW has the same budget as AoU but its BO will be 200 million less than AoU. CW has 30 million more in budget than IM3 but now we're still not sure whether it can make the same as IM3.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

CW made more in North America than it made overseas this weekend. Nearly 40 percent(12 million) was from china alone which only has 1 week left in it's run

North America is going to have to be the engine if it's going to exceed 1.1 million

2 weeks left in China, actually.

 

[gerrym51]

2 weeks left in China, actually.

is it-i stand corrected-lol

 

[Ozbridge]

In OS markets CW has considerably weaker leg than IM3:

At the end of 2nd weekend, IM3 made 503M, CW made 494M
In 3rd week IM3 made 161M (664M ***), CW made 153M (647M ***)
In 4th week IM3 made 72M (55% drop - 736M ***), CW made 59M (61% drop - 706M ***)

I guess OS total will be 750-770 M, with a 55% 3rd weekend drop domestic that means 1.2B WW is out of the question.

CW made more in North America than it made overseas this weekend. Nearly 40 percent(12 million) was from china alone which only has 1 week left in it's run

North America is going to have to be the engine if it's going to exceed 1.1 million

It's currently at 1.05B, I think it's not unreasonable to expect another 50 M from domestic which will make BO WW exceed 1.1B even if it's pulled off OS markets tomorrow morning.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Kinda strange to call it fatigue when you're quoting numbers that show that BO profits are up all across the board no?

Like I said, we need a little perspective in here.

Yeah, it isn't the right word but it seems popular so I may as well go with the hip crowd, eh?

Is there a good word for "I've already spent a lot seeing more good films than usual so far this year and with 7 or 8 more movies I want to see on deck, I can't justfy shelling out for a repeat viewing"?

 

[gerrym51]

the 12 million weekend in china was so low i thought it had to be the 4th week.

My bad.

 

[BigSams50]

I dont know how it is everywhere else,. but here in greece,. We pay 3 euro for a ticket to go see any movie at the movie theater. I saw Xmen/Apocalpse last night and even though we had a packed house of like 60 people (small theater lol ),. i dont see how companies can make any money off of that