Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[JB33]

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/angry-birds-box-office-opening-beating-captain-america-1201779672/

My target was $35.8M. Anything above that and I'm happy.

 

[gerrym51]

Although I'm on the side of reason (aka "Hey, this movie is making a ton of money and is absolutely NOT a failure, no matter which way you spin it") I would also say that it would be genuinely disappointing if this movie doesn't out-gross Iron Man 3.

Yes, the common denominator is RDJ's Tony Stark/Iron Man, but we're talking about a movie that was released 3 years ago, featured just him and didn't get as good reception as Civil War. Again, the film is past the point of failure. It's going to make $1B plus. I just think it would be odd, to put it midly, for it not to be able to out-gross IM3. People will flame me for this - and I'm NOT saying the genre is dying or anything! - but I think it would indicate a slightly diminishing audience. Which is fine, by the way. Absolutely no complaints.

Damn, I feel like I had to put a ton of disclaimers in there just so I don't get jumped.

if it's going to beat ww iron man 3 totals it's going to have to do it in North America. I do not see it matching IM3 overseas total

 

[Iceman]

Nice. Hopefully will edge out IM3 again.

 

[JB33]

if it's going to beat ww iron man 3 totals it's going to have to do it in North America. I do not see it matching IM3 overseas total

This weekend will tell us a lot. By next week it'll only be pulling in a couple million overseas per day, given it went from $9-$10M on Monday, to $5.3M yesterday.

 

[ssj wolverine]

Despite Ike's assertion, I don't see this movie making this kind of money without RDJ.

You ***damn right. RDJ deserves all the money he gets as he is one of the big reasons that started it all. The movies that grossed over a billion has one common denominator him. I don't know if the reboot Spidey movie can make a billion but it has a good shot at it because of him. I get that nothing last forever but I will enjoy my favorite Marvel actor for as long as I can.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Deadline's got it down to $33.6 million for the weekend as of late last night. That would be a 54% drop. Ick.

 

[gerrym51]

Deadline's got it down to $33.6 million for the weekend as of late last night. That would be a 54% drop. Ick.

Deadline is all over the place until sunday AM.

I would not put stock in their predictions until the Sunday am comment

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Billion dollar club baby!

 

[AvengerPA]

Avengers
Iron Man 3
Avengers: Age of Ultron
Captain America: Civil War

Iron Man has appeared in four films in the last five years. All of them have made at least $1 billion. He is Hollywood's biggest cash cow.

 

[Kanon]

Deadline is all over the place until sunday AM.

I would not put stock in their predictions until the Sunday am comment

Yeah, but if the 9M friday is correct, is a little low. A 33M weekend would be consistent with IM3 multiplier for the 3rd weekend

 

[JC00]

BoxOfficeMojo saying Civil war was #3 Friday

Angry Birds- $11m
Neighbors 2- $8.74m
Civil War- $8.70m

 

[gerrym51]

I have a question-with CW 8.7 friday and probably say 10.3 on sunday-

can it really do 13 million saturday?

I'm doing this strictly by numbers and appears to happen in the past

 

[metaphysician]

No Thor film will gross $Billion. Estimates and projections for these movies from fans are at ridiculous levels already.

I don't agree. I think a Thor movie that is really good ( RT 85+ ) and well-marketed could break a billion. Thor 2 was fairly mediocre, and it still made 640M. Especially with the growing international market, increasing that by half is hardly impossible. I'd say Thor 3 has a decent shot at it, especially with the Hulk added. . . *if* its good. That's the sticking point, it needs better writing and directing than Thor 2, by a lot.

 

[metaphysician]

RDJ is going to leave sometime.

They will have a pause then re-boot the movies just like they do in the comic books.

No, they will recast Tony Stark. Like they have said they will, repeatedly, every time the topic has come up.

 

[metaphysician]

What do y'all think the chances are for CW to outgross IM3? Right now, I think it will settle in at 410-415 M domestic and maybe 720-750 M overseas. That will put it approximately 50 M behind IM3. Of course, I am no expert so I could be wrong.

Coin flip, I'd say. It'll either come in just under or just over, IMO.

 

[spider-neil]

Marvel are starting to spend more to get smaller returns. After Avengers 3 (1 and 2) I think they will be better off making smaller movies. Which looks to be the case after Phase 3.

 

[metaphysician]

If I had to make educated guess which upcoming CBM could score $1B or more?

Avengers IW 1 & 2
Spider-Man: Homecoming
JL 1 (Being generous)

And honestly, I'd put GOTG 2 over Ragnarok in terms of chances.

I consider Thor 3 as entirely having a chance to break a billion. . . and I still agree with you. GOTG2 is more likely to do so. I would actually say that, if GOTG2 maintains the quality of the first one, its probably a shoe-in to do so, though it won't necessarily go much beyond that. If nothing else, both the series and the lead are now much bigger names.

 

[Chesterfield]

I don't agree. I think a Thor movie that is really good ( RT 85+ ) and well-marketed could break a billion. Thor 2 was fairly mediocre, and it still made 640M. Especially with the growing international market, increasing that by half is hardly impossible. I'd say Thor 3 has a decent shot at it, especially with the Hulk added. . . *if* its good. That's the sticking point, it needs better writing and directing than Thor 2, by a lot.

Thor:R is shaping up nicely. The cast really has me excited and I'm really hoping the script and the film itself turns out phenomenally. However, irrespective of the $600 odd million that TDW made I'm just not convinced this new Thor film will cross $800 million let alone reach a $Billion. I estimate circa $700-750 Million.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Trending the wrong way in the new update: now down to $32 million (-55%).

http://deadline.com/2016/05/angry-birds-neighbors-2-the-nice-guys-weekend-box-office-1201760146/

 

[JB33]

Trending the wrong way in the new update: now down to $32 million (-55%).

http://deadline.com/2016/05/angry-birds-neighbors-2-the-nice-guys-weekend-box-office-1201760146/

Legitimately stunned at this point. It's experiencing worse legs than both Avengers: Age of Ultron and Iron Man 3. An IM3-like 3rd weekend drop would have put Civil War's 3rd weekend at about $35.8M.

It's a great movie still making a lot of money and receiving critical acclaim so there's nothing wrong with it. The box office performance is just simply trending downwards.

 

[JB33]

More proof that the drop is pretty striking:

Scott Mendelson ‏@ScottMendelson 1h1 hour ago
Useless trivia: 55.6% third Friday drop for #CaptainAmericaCivilWar is the second-biggest for a summer kick-off film after KINGDOM OF HEAVEN

What is going on?

 

[gerrym51]

More proof that the drop is pretty striking:



What is going on?

wouldn't it be better to wait until tomorrow to think about this.

Usually Sunday morning they say big sat bump and the numbers change.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

It may just be a weak weekend at the box office. Angry Birds just met expectations. Neighbors 2 opened far worse than expected. Nice Guys got rave reviews and opened to meh numbers. And CW came up a few million short of predictions. Jungle Book's continued amazing run is the only real noteworthy item. Everything else this frame is just a shrug.

 

[Kanon]

Legitimately stunned at this point. It's experiencing worse legs than both Avengers: Age of Ultron and Iron Man 3. An IM3-like 3rd weekend drop would have put Civil War's 3rd weekend at about $35.8M.

It's a great movie still making a lot of money and receiving critical acclaim so there's nothing wrong with it. The box office performance is just simply trending downwards.

I think it's just that it isn't a feel good movie, the bittersweet taste in mouths after seeing our heroes broken might have put off the GA

 

[Ozbridge]

Marvel are starting to spend more to get smaller returns. After Avengers 3 (1 and 2) I think they will be better off making smaller movies. Which looks to be the case after Phase 3.

I actually think that making team-up/ tentpole/ event movies is still a lil' more profitable than small/ solo movies.

Thor: TDW: WW BO = 3.8X Budget
CA:TWS: WW BO = 4.2X Budget
GotG and Ant Man: BO = 4X Budget

And CA:CW, which now we know is the least profitable team-up movie, has WW BO equal to at least 4.4X budget (assuming a conservative WW BO of 1.1B)

So obviously CA:CW is still more profitable than any post-Avengers solo movies (except IM3). IMO a team-up movies every 2 or 3 years is alright, though Marvel definitely needs to control their budget better. Starting with AoU and now CW, they're literally spending more money to get less money.

It may just be a weak weekend at the box office. Angry Birds just met expectations. Neighbors 2 opened far worse than expected. Nice Guys got rave reviews and opened to meh numbers. And CW came up a few million short of predictions. Jungle Book's continued amazing run is the only real noteworthy item. Everything else this frame is just a shrug.

Yeah this is definitely a weak Friday. Neighbors 2 made less than half of what Neighbors 1 did on its first Friday (I know that it'll drop, but not that much). The Nice Guys is expected to make at least Money Monster, but falls short by more than 20%.

Not only Jungle Book but also Zootopia continue with tremendous leg, they're like "Civil War? What Civil War?". I'm really impressed that despite a new animation movie Zootopia only has 38% drop compared to last Friday (maybe it's a movie attract lots of adults too).

No, they will recast Tony Stark. Like they have said they will, repeatedly, every time the topic has come up.

I think that they're obligated to say so, they can't actually say "No RDJ is irreplaceable (and we'll pay whatever he demands to keep him)". Though after Infinity War 2 he'll be in his mid-50s and they'll probably recast Tony Stark or choose another character to be Iron Man (though who knows maybe RDJ will play action roles till his 70s like Harrison Ford).