Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[JB33]

I did.

That's good. So you're aware that nobody is calling it a failure. All that's going on here is box office analytics.

 

[Mysteryman]

Seems ironic that Zach Snyder is being 'blamed' for both BvS boxoffice AND
Civil WAR so -so boxoffice for a Marvel superteamup movie.

1.1 billion plus is not a failure by any means.

Is Zach going to be 'blamed' for apocalypse also----lol

For a moment there, I thought that you meant THE Apocalypse, then I got it, lol.

 

[Mysteryman]

There is NO fatigue.
There is NO affect by piracy.
There is NO Affect by BvS.

then civil wars box office is just what it is.

Piracy had NO affect?
That would be a first.

 

[marcvader]

That's good. So you're aware that nobody is calling it a failure. All that's going on here is box office analytics.

I said it. It's a statement.

 

[Anita18]

I've seen a lot of things said about IM3 but I've never seen people say it's a failure, at least in terms of box office. If anything, that's a movie that overachieved.

The more I think about it, the more I realize that most people do get that Avengers movies are in a tier of their own. It's IM3 that is throwing expectations way off. It set the bar way too high for solo films.

Another way of thinking about it, is that the box office of a movie that's part of a series is affected by the film immediately preceding it. IM3 was coming off of TA1, which had great reception. It partly explains why its BO was inflated, relative to other solo films.

CW is coming off of AoU, which didn't have as great of a reception.

Disregarding that IM is probably still more popular than Captain America, all that stuff. But this pattern has been seen in other series before.

AoUs reception, crowded marketplace, MCU-limited audience....all these would affect the box office WAY more than piracy.

 

[Kanon]

No monday numbers yet?

 

[JB33]

No monday numbers yet?

It's odd. Nothing from Box Office Pro, Box Office Mojo, or even Scott Mendelson on Twitter. Usually he has tweeted estimates long by now.

I guess now that we're in the 3rd week there's not as much of a demand for up to the minute updates. We're now in the "leggy part" of its box office run, especially because of the drops it's had already. There's nothing really exciting to report.

 

[gerrym51]

Piracy had NO affect?
That would be a first.

I was being tongue in cheek.somebody here always says no to any of these.

then what is is.

 

[gerrym51]

It's odd. Nothing from Box Office Pro, Box Office Mojo, or even Scott Mendelson on Twitter. Usually he has tweeted estimates long by now.

I guess now that we're in the 3rd week there's not as much of a demand for up to the minute updates. We're now in the "leggy part" of its box office run, especially because of the drops it's had already. There's nothing really exciting to report.

actually it's now the 'long slog' to somewheres past 1.1.

I would be a hippocrite to not point out i picked 1.1 and it will go past that. I see no way to 1.2 though.

Probably between 1.14 and 1.16

 

[JB33]

actually it's now the 'long slog' to somewheres past 1.1.

I would be a hippocrite to not point out i picked 1.1 and it will go past that. I see no way to 1.2 though.

Probably between 1.14 and 1.16

Yeah, that's pretty much what I meant.

I'm hoping it gets to 1.16 and just edges past Minions for 11th all time worldwide, right behind IM3.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I was being tongue in cheek.somebody here always says no to any of these.

then what is is.

Lots of competition.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/?view2=ytdcompare&view=releasedate&p=.htm

YTD 2016 box office is already running $200 million+ ahead of last year and more than $400 million ahead of 2014. Repeat viewings will take a significant hit if there are a bunch of other good films out people haven't seen.

 

[InCali]

Lots of competition.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/?view2=ytdcompare&view=releasedate&p=.htm

YTD 2016 box office is already running $200 million+ ahead of last year and more than $400 million ahead of 2014. Repeat viewings will take a significant hit if there are a bunch of other good films out people haven't seen.

The only competition CW has to worry about at this point is really X:A.

OOPS....I just looked at the upcoming schedule and would say I'm wrong. While there may not be any huge movies until Dory, each week seems to have something for someone. Even if X:A is very front loaded, CW has a rough road from here on out.

 

[Vincanws]

An argument from authority is a logical fallacy; just because John Campea says it's true doesn't mean it is.

True, I agree with him as much as I disagree. I happen to agree with his video about fatigue of comic book movies though. He often makes well reasoned arguments, even when they're arguably off the mark.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$3,020,789 Monday. New domestic total is $350,236,681.

 

[StormC]

What do you expect? Some people here are absolutely certain that Thor: R will gross a $Billion.
It's crazy the expectations some people come up with and that's after the fact they've taken into account potential adverse variables. Honestly, if each IW film grosses less than $1.8 Billion you can expect the worst kind of overblown backlash.

People really think Thor R is getting a billion? To be honest, Homecoming would be lucky to get a billion even with RDJ in the film (I'd call 1.1 the absolute ceiling for that movie).

If either of the IW movies significantly beats TA, I'll be floored. AOU-ish numbers seem more likely there.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

$3,020,789 Monday. New domestic total is $350,236,681.

Is that good?

 

[third3ye]

People really think Thor R is getting a billion? To be honest, Homecoming would be lucky to get a billion even with RDJ in the film (I'd call 1.1 the absolute ceiling for that movie).

If either of the IW movies significantly beats TA, I'll be floored. AOU-ish numbers seem more likely there.

I can see A:IW2 beating TA. The final Harry Potter film was the highest grossing of the series and there's some similarity in A:IW being a major climax within the MCU and also being a 2-parter. Not sure about A:IW1 though, that could perform more like a AoU-plus depending on events and characters featured.

But yeah I don't see Thor 3 or Spider-Man breaking a billion, not even with Thor's cast or RDJ. Still, all 3 Marvel Studios films in 2017 (including GotG2) are probably looking at $700-$900m each, not too shabby.

 

[Kanon]

$3,020,789 Monday. New domestic total is $350,236,681.

Is that good?

It's good, in perspective after a low weekend. A little lower than Iron Man 3 3rd monday (3.2M), but a better drop from 3rd weekend to 3rd monday.

 

[third3ye]

$3,020,789 Monday. New domestic total is $350,236,681.

CW back on top
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=1day&sortdate=2016-05-23&p=.htm

 

[metaphysician]

No there's no fatigue in the genre, but at the same time, when Avengers set the high water mark, it was always going to be a tough mark to beat. I had to laugh last year at all the ridiculous stories about AoU being a failure. This is basically performing slightly ahead of Iron Man 3, another film wich only in comic book forums is viewed a failure.

Being fair, that has basically nothing to do with the financial performance, and everything to do with a subset of fans possessing a virulent grudge against the plot of Iron Man 3. It could have made more than Avengers, and it'd probably have the same reaction.

 

[Kanon]

8th All time Fastest to 350M

1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens (6 days to $363,460,329)
2 Jurassic World (9 days to $364,438,525)
3 Marvel's The Avengers (10 days to $373,071,647)
4 The Dark Knight (14 days to $351,086,846)
5 Avengers: Age of Ultron (16 days to $360,394,291)
6 The Dark Knight Rises (17 days to $353,935,094)
7 Avatar (17 days to $352,114,898)
8 Captain America: Civil War (18 days to $350,236,681)
9 Iron Man 3 (22 days to $353,228,940)
10 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (23 days to $353,684,449)

 

[JB33]

$3,020,789 Monday. New domestic total is $350,236,681.

An IM3 drop would have given it about $3.3M so it continues to track behind that movie. So with that, I'm not going to compare these two films anymore.

 

[Kanon]

An IM3 drop would have given it about $3.3M so it continues to track behind that movie. So with that, I'm not going to compare these two films anymore.

A better comparison, in terms of how it's dropping, is Spider-Man 3..

Is that a monday to monday drop? 'cause the same sunday to monday drop (3rd week) would have been 2.8M for CW

 

[JB33]

Is that a monday to monday drop? 'cause the same sunday to monday drop (3rd week) would have been 2.8M for CW

Monday to Monday, but honestly it doesn't matter. At this point I'm just crunching numbers. Its legs aren't that great and I have to accept that.

I'd say all around that's a solid Monday and this film should be judged on its own from now on.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

An IM3 drop would have given it about $3.3M so it continues to track behind that movie. So with that, I'm not going to compare these two films anymore.

Where do you see this ending when its dom run is up? Can it break 400?