Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[StormC]

But yeah I don't see Thor 3 or Spider-Man breaking a billion, not even with Thor's cast or RDJ. Still, all 3 Marvel Studios films in 2017 (including GotG2) are probably looking at $700-$900m each, not too shabby.

I think Spider-Man COULD get a billion since he was probably the character the GA loved the most in Civil War, and the character is still a pop culture phenomenon through generations. But it would be tough. If it had less than say, 80% on RT we could kiss the billion goodbye.

Marketing will matter too. A poster with Spider-Man front and center with Iron Man off to the side would be the best way for Disney to market the movie (even if some might feel it will steal Spidey's spotlight ).

 

[JB33]

Where do you see this ending when its dom run is up? Can it break 400?

It's really hard to say with these drops. Every time you think a certain mark is in the bag, the film drops more than it should and suddenly that mark doesn't seem so certain.

It should pass $400 but it has to start holding better. I looked at the charts and it has pretty much been tracking behind IM3 ($409M domestic) since its first Tuesday. Seeing as how IM3 itself barely managed over $400M and CW has been tracking behind it for awhile now, it actually is possible it doesn't reach $400M domestic.

If had to put money on it, I would say it'll manage it though. I see it steadying somewhat in the coming weeks.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

It's really hard to say with these drops. Every time you think a certain mark is in the bag, the film drops more than it should and suddenly that mark doesn't seem so certain.

It should pass $400 but it has to start holding better. I looked at the charts and it has pretty much been tracking behind IM3 ($409M domestic) since its first Tuesday. Seeing as how IM3 itself barely managed over $400M and CW has been tracking behind it for awhile now, it actually is possible it doesn't reach $400M domestic.

If had to put money on it, I would say it'll manage it though. I see it steadying somewhat in the coming weeks.

I agree. I think it comes under IM3 409. Maybe 400-405. Although my 405 might be pushing it.

 

[JB33]

BOM just updated their international totals. Looks like Civil War took in $2.8M overseas yesterday as well.

Domestic: $350,236,681
Foreign: $709,700,000
Worldwide: $1,059,936,681


Just like the weekend, the movie took in more domestically than overseas, which is really surprising. If that happens, it doesn't usually happen until long into a film's release. It's understandable now with a lot of foreign markets now turning their attention to X-Men: Apocalypse, but it was dropping hard overseas well before X-Men:A hit theatres.

Where do you guys think the overseas total will land at? I'm starting to think $750M is more realistic, if that. $800M is impossible now.

 

[third3ye]

Where do you guys think the overseas total will land at? Will it reach $800M? I'm starting to think $750M is more realistic, if that.

Japan has yet to open, I would think it should do AT LEAST $750m OS. Granted MCU films don't do big numbers in Japan but can probably bank another $25m from that market.

 

[JB33]

Japan has yet to open, I would think it should do AT LEAST $750m OS. Granted MCU films don't do big numbers in Japan but can probably bank another $25m from that market.

No, it has already been released in Japan. The current total there is $21,532,923.

 

[third3ye]

No, it has already been released in Japan. The current total there is $21,532,923.

I stand corrected!

 

[Erzengel]

It is interesting that CW is #1 for Monday.

 

[Raiden]

Japan has yet to open, I would think it should do AT LEAST $750m OS. Granted MCU films don't do big numbers in Japan but can probably bank another $25m from that market.

Japanese love Spider Man so I think CW will do well there.

 

[Erzengel]

CW has already made $21M in Japan. AOU made around $25M.

 

[StormC]

Why does it seem like the MCU only does okay business in Japan? Marvel as a general brand is very popular there.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Why does it seem like the MCU only does okay business in Japan? Marvel as a general brand is very popular there.

Japanese cinema has its own strong, homegrown superhero genre. Marvel has an in because there's a Japanese Spider-Man (complete with his own mech) licensed from Marvel way back when. But overall they have their own thing.

 

[StormC]

Japanese cinema has its own strong, homegrown superhero genre. Marvel has an in because there's a Japanese Spider-Man (complete with his own mech) licensed from Marvel way back when. But overall they have their own thing.

Yeah, there's tokusatsu, but Spider-Man and X-Men have always been popular in Japan, along with some of the Avengers. I'd think MCU would leave more of a mark than it has so far over there.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Are you guys seriously thinking Guardians 2 won't hit a billion? I think it will, especially after the excitement I had visiting the set last month in Atlanta, yes that's me in a photo on James Gunn's Facebook page standing in between James Gunn and Chris Pratt.

 

[StormC]

A billion is very hard to do, especially with characters that aren't riding on the good will of Avengers hype. The MCU may make it look easy, but every single movie that hits a billion is a minor miracle in and of itself.

Plenty of sequels actually do worse than the first movie at the box office, even if they're around the same quality or the second one is even better (Star Wars, Spider-Man etc.). A lot of times it's the novelty factor that makes the first movie do very well. Sequels that do better are either miles ahead of the other in quality, or have a hook to them that the previous movie didn't have (IM3 was a follow-up to the Avengers' storyline, DOFP had the original cast, etc.).

 

[Docker2.0]

Are you guys seriously thinking Guardians 2 won't hit a billion? I think it will, especially after the excitement I had visiting the set last month in Atlanta, yes that's me in a photo on James Gunn's Facebook page standing in between James Gunn and Chris Pratt.

Alright then! Since you have excitement visiting the set then $1B is pretty much guaranteed! Someone get me some Jack Daniels!

 

[Erzengel]

I would have said that GOTG2 would be my goto comic book movie next year, but the entire cast announced for Thor: Ragnarock and Ruffalo saying this is like a buddy picture has me excited.

 

[StormC]

Phase 3 is going to be Marvel's best phase yet, I am sure.

 

[Spiderine]

I wouldn't doubt it........phase 3 is the conclusion to all three phases that have built up thus far. And it even seems more like an ending to things. I am really looking forward to Ragnarok.

 

[StormC]

I think (and hope) Thor 3 is going to be a breakout success, the same way IM1 and TWS were for Iron Man and Cap. GOTG's success probably makes Marvel feel more at ease for moving away from Earth and focusing more on cosmic stuff for him.

 

[First Avenger]

I think (and hope) Thor 3 is going to be a breakout success, the same way IM1 and TWS were for Iron Man and Cap. GOTG's success probably makes Marvel feel more at ease for moving away from Earth and focusing more on cosmic stuff for him.

Yup,95% of Ragnarok will be cosmic according to Feige.

 

[I Am The Knight]

Alright then! Since you have excitement visiting the set then $1B is pretty much guaranteed! Someone get me some Jack Daniels!

 

[Iceman]

Japanese love Spider Man so I think CW will do well there.

Are they advertising his presence much there?

 

[JOE]

I'm pumped for the next 6 MCU films. Dr. Strange, GOTG 2, Spider-Man, Ragnarok, Black Panther, Infinity War... We're so spoiled and I love it!

 

[Kanon]

I never posted the follow up to this