The Winter Soldier Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[flickchick85]

I was about to say, what did BigThor ever do to you guys? He was good people last I checked. Glad to hear this is someone else I haven't had the misfortune of encountering, lol.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I feel bad for bringing him up now.

 

[The Endless]

I saw him get really, really defensive about The Dark World a few times, so i assumed it was him.

If not, apologies are in order

 

[KangConquers]

Its about friggin time. Cap should be the MCU's flagship franchise and Marvel in general after Spidey. I hope they entice Evans to stay at least for a couple beyond the current contract. Come on Disney, pay up.

Before the whole X-Men explosion in 1991-1992, with the animated series, the action figure line, and the arcade game, I always viewed Spider-Man, Captain America and Hulk as Marvel's big 3. Every time I hear someone call Cap a B-Lister, it makes me want to bang my head against the wall. I can see saying Iron Man and Thor were B-Listers pre-MCU, but Cap? No way!

 

[metaphysician]

Eh, its true. For one thing, Cap really doesn't have anywhere near as much exposure as the others you mention.

For another, the only thing better than B-list is A-list. And the *only* A-list characters before the modern era were Superman, Batman, Spider-man, Wonder Woman, and *maybe* Hulk.

 

[marcvader]

Eh, its true. For one thing, Cap really doesn't have anywhere near as much exposure as the others you mention.

For another, the only thing better than B-list is A-list. And the *only* A-list characters before the modern era were Superman, Batman, Spider-man, Wonder Woman, and *maybe* Hulk.

But he did have more exposure than anyone else not on that top shelf. A serial, cartoon (60's), 2 TV specials, early 90's movie. Plus the fact that his costume(Halloween) and shield have always been present in pop culture dating back to the 60's.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice 21h
CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE WINTER SOLDIER took in $1.07M on Monday. Domestic total now stands at $226.13M. #CaptainAmerica2

BO update.

 

[KangConquers]

Eh, its true. For one thing, Cap really doesn't have anywhere near as much exposure as the others you mention.

For another, the only thing better than B-list is A-list. And the *only* A-list characters before the modern era were Superman, Batman, Spider-man, Wonder Woman, and *maybe* Hulk.

What exposure makes Wonder Woman worthy of that list? A TV show that's been off the air for 38 years? I don't consider Cap's position in popular culture any lower than Wonder Woman's. She, Hulk, and Cap are all on roughly the same level in my eyes.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Pre-MCU Cap was a B-lister. People (the general public) heard of his name but they didn't know anything about him aside from him being American.

 

[hafizbat]

I think Wonder Woman is only an A-lister because she was one of the first female superheroes. That itself was enough to make her an icon. I don't think the character herself is actually deserving of "A-list" status.

 

[daddydivine]

Should it matter. As of right now Cap, Iron Man, and Spiderman stand on equal grounds with Superman and Batman. Those five heroes are A Tier as of 2014. In fact with the way the GA have embraced Batman and Ironman movies those two are God tier.

How do you judge Tier anyway. In terms of pop culture Superman is king. In terms of movie sales not so much. Ironman can make a movie about cookies and make a billion. In terms of comic sales Spiderman has no competition.

I honestly see WonderWoman as low B or C Tier. Until something actually happens with the character.

 

[Wildcard]

I think Wonder Woman is only an A-lister because she was one of the first female superheroes. That itself was enough to make her an icon. I don't think the character herself is actually deserving of "A-list" status.

I couldn't disagree with you more. When written properly, there is much to the character of Wonder Woman that can be intriguing & there are many great reasons why she deserves that A-list status. As with any character, she has good stories, bad stories, & great ones.

But yeah, Cap doing these numbers is a long time coming. Growing up as a massive nerd, I always knew about him (even have had the pleasure of reading some of the really early stories done by Stan "The Man" Lee) but he always seemed underrated. With TWS, we can see his popularity has skyrocketed.

Good ol' Cap has beaten every other solo Marvel movie (save for TA & IM 3) in terms of its worldwide gross. It's nothing short of awesome to see him take his place in the upper echelon as a superhero known good enough to be synonymous with people.

God Bless America.

 

[JoCucumber]

Maybe im just feeling pessimistic today but i think its gonna stall before the 700 mil mark...like 691 or something lol

Ive been doing alot of comparisons to T:TDW, where it was after 26 days, how much longer it was in release, taking into account the percentage ahead that Cap is at the same point, blah blah blah...I'm thinking 21mil or 22mil more domestic conservative guess.

Like i said earlier everything it makes from this point on is just gravy to me, but its gonna irritate the holy hell out of me if it stalls before crossing 700mil

 

[JKKS085]

CATW will likely add another 10/11 millions between wednesday and sunday. So yeah 21/22 millions more till the end of its run is conservative.

It would have probably made that much (or quite close) after next week end sitting around 245/248 millions domestically at that point

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Maybe im just feeling pessimistic today but i think its gonna stall before the 700 mil mark...like 691 or something lol

Ive been doing alot of comparisons to T:TDW, where it was after 26 days, how much longer it was in release, taking into account the percentage ahead that Cap is at the same point, blah blah blah...I'm thinking 21mil or 22mil more domestic conservative guess.

Like i said earlier everything it makes from this point on is just gravy to me, but its gonna irritate the holy hell out of me if it stalls before crossing 700mil

Well unless it makes no more than 10 million more after this sunday is over (which is very unlikely) it should get $250 million.

The bigger question is international numbers.

 

[TalismanRing]

Well unless it makes no more than 10 million more after this sunday is over (which is very unlikely) it should get $250 million.

The bigger question is international numbers.

Agreed, I don't see $250m not happening.

Cap is going to keep most of it's theaters for another couple of weeks and this week was still doing $1m plus weekdays - about twice what TDW was doing by this time.

Even if it falls a bit more than 50% this weekend it will be at $237m going into next week off an $8m w/e. TDW made another $13m off a $4.8m weekend. Iron Man 2 made another $21m off a sub $8m w/e and another $13m off a sub $5m w/e. Iron Man 3 made another $24m off an $8.4m w/e.

Internationally - being pulled from China theaters on Sunday is what will hurt it. It made more than $8m there last w/e and will still be making millions before it get's pulled. As of today it's at 695m yaun ~ $112m so it's made more than $4m this week and will probably make another $2-4m Friday & Saturday.

 

[marcvader]

I'm guessing $260 to $265 dom finish.

 

[JoCucumber]

Well unless it makes no more than 10 million more after this sunday is over (which is very unlikely) it should get $250 million.

The bigger question is international numbers.

Exactly... I think it will hit $250, but i'm not sure International will make up the difference

 

[JoCucumber]

Agreed, I don't see $250m not happening.

Cap is going to keep most of it's theaters for another couple of weeks and this week was still doing $1m plus weekdays - about twice what TDW was doing by this time.

Even if it falls a bit more than 50% this weekend it will be at $237m going into next week off an $8m w/e. TDW made another $13m off a $4.8m weekend. Iron Man 2 made another $21m off a sub $8m w/e and another $13m off a sub $5m w/e. Iron Man 3 made another $24m off an $8.4m w/e.

Internationally - being pulled from China theaters on Sunday is what will hurt it. It made more than $8m there last w/e and will still be making millions before it get's pulled. As of today it's at 695m yaun ~ $112m so it's made more than $4m this week and will probably make another $2-4m Friday & Saturday.

If thats the case then $260 - $265 is pretty accurate. Now I'm back to thinking it'll pass $700 easily...lol what a waste of a bunch of time and math on my part

 

[kedrell]

It will have caught up with IM3's dailies today or tomorrow. From that point IM3 made $33M more DOM. So figuring that TWS makes another $1M today which would bring it's 28 day/4 week total DOM to $229.5M then we are looking at about a final DOM total of $262.5M if it just paces IM3 for the rest of the way on, which is $.5M passed TASM. Now that's not factoring in how TASM2 will effect it nor taking into account that it caught up with IM3's dailies which had led the match-up for a month(due to the extra $80M higher or so that IM3 opened to on it's OW) but had gradually lost that edge over 4 weeks indicating a trend that Cap2 would start pulling ahead in the dailies from here on out which could add as much as a few million $ beyond that $262.5M figure. But I don't think it'll have the juice to reach $270M.

I'd say TWS has another $35M left in the DOM box office.

 

[JKKS085]

Unless a disaster happens 700m is guarranted.
The movie is set to make at least 260 millions domestically which means it only needs another 20 millions or so from foreign markets to cross the 700m mark (and unless it just stops making money all around it will get that much in the next couple of weeks).
This is happening as unlikely is it sounds a Captain America flick is about to gross past 700m worldwide.

 

[Iceman]

700m is a lovely number. Always been one of my favourites t:

 

[Joeyjojo72]

I don't think it makes it to $700m and I'm not convinced it makes it to $250m domestic. Close, but no cigar.


But still more than mos...

 

[TalismanRing]

For comparison.

TDW after it's 5th U.S./6th WW weekend which CA2 is now entering

http://investor.rentrak.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=812391

Thor: The Dark World

$10,140,000
$5,400,000 (Int'l)
$4,740,000 (U.S.)

$610,340,000
$416,700,000 (Int'l)
$193,640,000 (U.S.)

FINAL #s:

Domestic: $206,362,140
Foreign: $438,421,000
Worldwide: $644,783,140

Interestingly, TDW was tracked by Rentrak in 72 countries but CA2 only in 56.

TDW made another $34.4m off a WW $10.14m weekend. $6m of that was Japan where it opened later in Feb. So it made $28.4m more off territories it was currently playing in. It benefited a bit from Christmas/New Years Holidays though by then it wasn't making much.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Before the weekend starts Cap 2 will have outpaced Thor 2 by $49 million WW (I think). That's not even taking into account the OS numbers. I think the absolute minimum for this movie at this point is $695 million.