The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]383943[/split]

 

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]383385[/split]

 

[Raiden]

Fantastic Four is going to be another origin movie.

Is it confirmed that Fox will really reboot FF? I thought the news was just Fox's way of trying to convince Disney to pay them millions to get back the movie rights. It's been pretty long since FF2 that I'm surprised the rights are still with Fox.

Btw, I think it is pretty surreal how we're discussing $600 million domestic now like it's a real possibility. Only a few movies ever reached this milestone, and now Avengers have it within their reach, with less than $100 million to go. This movie really deserves everything good that goes its way.

 

[danoyse]

I'm sure plenty of 8 year olds haven't even seen Spider-man (2002).

Or at least don't remember it much.

Because Spiderman only existed in a movie theater?

By that logic, the only people who remember Star Wars are the people who saw it in 1977.

Kids have had the Spiderman DVDs forever, they know all of the movies. My friend's son can quote the first Spiderman movie better than I can, and I saw that movie in the theater before he was born.

 

[Scarlettess]

I don't think he meant that at all. Just generally seeing as the first movie came out 10 years ago, Then again I guess the first SM and SM2 are very much like the first two toy story movies, kids will want to watch it regardless. Still there will be kids who see this as their first live action live-action spider-man film.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Is it confirmed that Fox will really reboot FF?

Well they have a director, the guy who did Chronicle. If it looks like Chronicle, I will be jazzed.

On topic - I knew from the international response and had no doubt in my mind Avengers would make at least 550. To make over 600 is another story. If it reaches that milestone, I will be floored and will go see it again in celebration.

Here is evidence I predicted 500-550 million for Avengers my comment is on page 3 http://www.comingsoon.net/news/weekendwarriornews.php?id=89374&offset=20#commentLstTop

LMBO @ WeekendWarrior predicting only 340 million TOTAL for TA.

i give him credit for his MIB3 opening number only 2 million shy of the actual.

 

[04nbod]

Because Spiderman only existed in a movie theater?

By that logic, the only people who remember Star Wars are the people who saw it in 1977.

Kids have had the Spiderman DVDs forever, they know all of the movies. My friend's son can quote the first Spiderman movie better than I can, and I saw that movie in the theater before he was born.

You are making me feel ancient.

 

[Coca Cola Duracell Franklin.]

My friend's son can quote the first Spiderman movie better than I can, and I saw that movie in the theater before he was born.

The only good line in the movie was Norman Osborne saying "Hi Aunt May. I brought you a fruit cake."

 

[Jordanstine]

Projections for the week (revised with actuals):

Tuesday = $2.80M (cume $527.56M)
Wednesday = $2.55M (cume $530.11M)
Thursday = $2.30M (cume $532.41M)
Friday = $6.45M (cume $538.86M)
Saturday = $10.50M (cume $549.56M)
Sunday = $6.20M (cume $555.56M)

5th Weekend approx cume $22M (-40% from previous weekend).

 

[Jordanstine]

Update: Actuals released!

Friday May 25, 2012 $9,664,323
Saturday May 26, 2012 $14,066,384
Sunday May 27, 2012 $12,956,164
Monday May 28, 2012 $10,535,543

Weekend Total = $47,222,414
Domestic Cume = $523,907,202

About $340K increase in the actuals, pretty good!

 

[Tony Stark]

Actuals went up to 47.2! Absolutely incredible!

 

[Superhero 101]

Projections for the week (revised with actuals):

Tuesday = $2.80M (cume $527.56M)
Wednesday = $2.55M (cume $530.11M)
Thursday = $2.30M (cume $532.41M)
Friday = $6.45M (cume $538.86M)
Saturday = $10.50M (cume $549.56M)
Sunday = $6.20M (cume $555.56M)

5th Weekend approx cume $22M (-40% from previous weekend).

-
I think Avengers should make 18-20 million this weekend

 

[Jordanstine]

-
I think Avengers should make 18-20 million this weekend

Yeah, I think you're right.

Re-doing new calculations, I see it at $19.8 million which is around a 46% drop.

 

[Raiden]

Yeah, I think you're right.

Re-doing new calculations, I see it at $19.8 million which is around a 46% drop.

It should surpass both TDK and HP8 this week, right?

 

[WorthyStevens]

$19 million is too harsh a drop; I can see $22 million.

 

[Tony Stark]

Yeah, I think you're right.

Re-doing new calculations, I see it at $19.8 million which is around a 46% drop.

No way, it's going to be a -35% to -37% drop.

 

[Jordanstine]

No way, it's going to be a -35% to -37% drop.

My first calculation was based on a 40% drop.

Second calculation was off 46%.

It varies on whomever I discuss this with, but the general sense is that there is a much steeper drop on the weekend following Memorial Day weekend.

We'll get a better projection once Tuesday numbers come in.

But yes, definitely should surpass TDK by Friday latest.

Will it surpass HP: DH2 by Sunday? Yes, if it's below a 40% drop, otherwise, it will do it on a Tuesday.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Well they have a director, the guy who did Chronicle.

They ALLEGEDLY have him. Fox has done nothing but blow smoke up our asses with the F4 "production".

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Trank signed on to do Shadow of the Colossus.

Also, Trank had no idea he was even considered for F4.

 

[Octavias]

Based on its pace vs TDK, i predict the week from tue to sunday will look like this:
Tue $3,042,165.45
Wed$2,248,175.77
Thu $2,280,106.20
Fri $6,147,320.48
Sat $9,466,478.18
Sun $6,205,448.56

Total Tue through sunday- $29,389,694.65
Again the pace vs TDK is remarkably consistant

Every sunday TA has done about 130% of what TDK did on the corresponding sunday.

Monday(not counting this monday because that was at like 269%) has been the most fluctuating, mostly at 75% but had the holiday and a 90% day the week before.

Tuesdays have been rock solid around 86%,

Wed has been steady at 75%

thursday has mostly been 75% with a 93% last week probably due to the holiday week

Friday is returning about 125 %

And saturdays have seen 140%. ill post the dailys if you want, but this is tracking awfully close to those numbers.

 

[TheVileOne]

MIB3 didn't even break $70 million for the holiday weekend.

 

[KangConquers]

So will Avengers break $550 M by next Monday?

 

[Octavias]

So will Avengers break $550 M by next Monday?

Its at 523 now, so yes it will. Or at least it ought to....

 

[Octavias]

Avatar didnt hit 600 million until week 7, but unless there is a spike when school gets out the numbers suggest a downward spiral for TA that will be more abrupt. it may still beat that record too, its a little ahead of pace due to the holiday take, however Avatar had such a slow fade it was still doing over 30 million a week after two months, TA should be just under that by week 6.......

 

[eddy]

MIB3 didn't even break $70 million for the holiday weekend.

Good point. MIB3's actuals went down while Avengers went up.t: