Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Mysteryman]

Sounds like its doing really well.
Bottom Line : Marvel did it again .

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Sounds like its doing really well.
Bottom Line : Marvel did it again .

That's basically this movie in a nutshell.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Right now, yes but this is going to be another Guardians of the Galaxy thing between us. Just a fair warning.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

From Deadline's latest update:

The masses are spending their excess income elsewhere tonight, specifically $90-$100 per subscription to watch the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight, which is already on course to net $400M in PPV revenue. What this means for Avengers: Age of Ultron is a lower than expected Saturday of $59M per industry estimates, a 30% decline from yesterday’s $84.46M. The first Avengers saw a Saturday dip of 14% back on May 5, 2012. Ultron‘s Sunday, per industry calculations, is looking at $47M, down 20% from Saturday (Avengers’ first Sunday took in $57.1M, down 18% from Saturday). Ultron is now looking at a three-day opening in the neighborhood of $189M-$191M. While that’s lower than the first chapter’s all-time record domestic bow of $207.4M, keep in mind Ultron will likely rank as the second highest opening of all-time. That’s still mind blowing business.

That is just a big drop from TA1's OW run and a lot more than people originally thought (20% was the previous estimated Saturday drop.)

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It is fantastic business, but not breaking the record 3 years later and with this much hype is slightly disappointing. Still awesome business, and I definitely believe we got a much better film this time around. So a win all around.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't deny that the fight probably hurt it a little on Saturday but that doesn't explain why it didn't at least match Potter's opening day record despite having 5 extra hours (Thursday evening shows) to do so? You would think more people would take the opportunity to see on Friday before the fight. Ultimately I don't believe it would have broken the record without the fight, I could be wrong but those are my thoughts right now. I think it would have been close though.

Also the reviews were decent overall but they weren't out of this world good like the first film's. Well now we wait for weekend estimates, actuals on Monday and see how it holds up legs wise.

I think I predicted 215-220 so I was wrong about that. I don't see AOU's numbers as disappointing because they are massive and the first film was lighting in a bottle domestically.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I don't deny that the fight probably hurt it a little on Saturday but that doesn't explain why it didn't at least match Potter's opening day record despite having 5 extra hours (Thursday evening shows) to do so? You would think more people would take the opportunity to see on Friday before the fight. Ultimately I don't believe it would have broken the record without the fight, I could be wrong but those are my thoughts right now. I think it would have been close though.

Also the reviews were decent overall but they weren't out of this world good like the first film's. Well now we wait for weekend estimates, actuals on Monday and see how it holds up legs wise.

I think I predicted 215-220 so I was wrong about that. I don't see AOU's numbers as disappointing because they are massive and the first film was lighting in a bottle domestically.

The Potter record standing is a bit of a surprise, but there is definitely a difference between a school year Friday and a summer Friday.

Overall, I think $500-550m domestically seems like a good bet.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I don't deny that the fight probably hurt it a little on Saturday but that doesn't explain why it didn't at least match Potter's opening day record despite having 5 extra hours (Thursday evening shows) to do so? You would think more people would take the opportunity to see on Friday before the fight. Ultimately I don't believe it would have broken the record without the fight, I could be wrong but those are my thoughts right now. I think it would have been close though.

Also the reviews were decent overall but they weren't out of this world good like the first film's. Well now we wait for weekend estimates, actuals on Monday and see how it holds up legs wise.

I think I predicted 215-220 so I was wrong about that. I don't see AOU's numbers as disappointing because they are massive and the first film was lighting in a bottle domestically.

While I believed the hype of the potential OW total, I started thinking that anything close to TA1's was a longshot due all the factors working against AoU this time around. To me, the biggest factors in stunting growth this weekend for AoU were the lower critic scores, lost novelty factor, and the big-time sporting events. I knew that the Mayweather/Pacquiao fight would be big but that $400 million total is just astounding. I can only imagine how many people who bought the fight (either at home or paying to go to a bar) would have spent that money at the theaters if AoU was the main headlining entertainment event going on this weekend.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I thought the lost novelty factor was going to affect its total more than opening weekend.

I actually expect the legs to be a little better than what some people might thinking but of course not as good as the original's. It will probably have a stronger than expected Sunday and Monday because the fight probably hurt it.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I thought the lost novelty factor was going to affect its total more than opening weekend.

I actually expect the legs to be a little better than what some people might thinking but of course not as good as the original's. It will probably have a stronger than expected Sunday and Monday because the fight probably hurt it.

I expect it to rebound Sunday and then likely next weekend as well. The fight had between 3-4 million PPV buyers and most people do watch parties, which doubles to triples that number. I'm assume that number mainly consists of viewers in the US and also factoring in all the people watching it via piracy, that makes for a rather large number to lose for a Saturday night.

 

[Spiderdevil]

So it did near about the same as IM3? Disappointing for me

 

[8ulk]

190 mil O.W. is still massive. Dissapointing isnt really the word.

2nd best o.w. record is great.

It only shows how much of a BOHEMOTH was The Avengers record of 207,4 mil.

Im pretty sure Infinity Wars will break the record which will probably stand till 2018/19 unless Justice League breaks it sooner.

im not sure how much the sports events affected the movie. We will never know for sure i guess.

Also this doesnt prevent the film from getting to 550 or 600 mil domestic total. it may have some good legs we ll see.

Maybe it manages to do 100 mil for 2nd weekend and 45+ mil for 3rd.

 

[spider-neil]

I think the boxing match was a massive factor. Adult men and fathers would have skipped the Saturday night Avengers showing. If the boxing match was last week then I think AoU would have broken the record.

 

[Docker2.0]

I actually think next weekend will still be big for this. I'm going to say $120M next weekend. I do believe the fight played a huge part of this not breaking the OW record.

 

[Donnie Darko]

I think the boxing match was a massive factor. Adult men and fathers would have skipped the Saturday night Avengers showing. If the boxing match was last week then I think AoU would have broken the record.

I don't know how much of an effect the fight had, but its audience was way bigger than adult men/fathers. I know plenty of women in their 20s who NEVER talk about boxing/fighting who were posting all over social media last night about the fight. Like Avengers had an appeal way bigger than boys and comic book geeks, the fight last night had an appeal way bigger than the usual boxing demographic.

 

[def28]

So it did near about the same as IM3? Disappointing for me

I have no idea why. This thing is gonna make Disney ****loads of cash that other studios dream they could come near. These numbers are huge.

IM3 did not play as an Iron Man 2 follow up. It played as an Avenger one. You don't magically jump from 600m to 1.2 billion. I think it's safe to assume Cap 3 will definitely play as an Avenger follow up as well.

This is a completely different structure of films and sequels then any other franchise prior. We are still learning how this works and crossover sequels play. When GOTG makes more then Cap, there's gonna be some surprises.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I actually think next weekend will still be big for this. I'm going to say $120M next weekend. I do believe the fight played a huge part of this not breaking the OW record.

That would be a crazy hold over. I can't see that happening.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I thought the lost novelty factor was going to affect its total more than opening weekend.

I actually expect the legs to be a little better than what some people might thinking but of course not as good as the original's. It will probably have a stronger than expected Sunday and Monday because the fight probably hurt it.

What kind of legs?

I have no idea why. This thing is gonna make Disney ****loads of cash that other studios dream they could come near. These numbers are huge.

IM3 did not play as an Iron Man 2 follow up. It played as an Avenger one. You don't magically jump from 600m to 1.2 billion. I think it's safe to assume Cap 3 will definitely play as an Avenger follow up as well.

This is also a completely different structure of films and sequels then any other franchise prior. We are still learning how this works and plays. When GOTG makes more then Cap, there's gonna be some surprises.

The numbers are incredible. But I must admit, I am slightly disappointed it didn't break the record. I really believe the film will be front loaded, so I am now curious what the domestic gross will be. Should easily pass the first film WW, but that is a different market now, like it is every year. The true comparison is domestic.

 

[mclay18]

Looking at the revised numbers, AOU might fall short of $500M domestically. Unless its legs are stronger today and for the following weekend.

 

[Tony Stark]

I thinking the bigger effect than the fight was the drop in 3D viewings over A1. The preview numerous showed a 16% drop in 3D viewings. If that number held for the weekend this had no chance at the record. IMAX viewings increased over A1 on the previews but there's not enough IMAX screens to make up for that kind of loss in 3D revenue. The fight probably did play a factor, but once the final 3D numbers come out, I think that will be the biggest factor.

 

[samsnee]

Slightly disappointed it didn't open at $200M but really only one movie has ever done that: the first one. No doubt the fight played a part in the lower number.

 

[JOE]

The fight played a huge role in it not reaching 200M OW.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I thinking the bigger effect than the fight was the drop in 3D viewings over A1. The preview numerous showed a 16% drop in 3D viewings. If that number held for the weekend this had no chance at the record. IMAX viewings increased over A1 on the previews but there's not enough IMAX screens to make up for that kind of loss in 3D revenue. The fight probably did play a factor, but once the final 3D numbers come out, I think that will be the biggest factor.

The fight played a factor. There are estimates that 4 million households bought the fight. Now factor in bars and restaurants. That is a lot of people. 3D falling off is also playing a factor. Though I think this is a good thing on the whole. The death of 3D films cannot come soon enough imo.

But numbers all around are down. No way the Friday number makes sense with all the early showing. It should have done better, it should have beat Potter.

 

[Tony Stark]

The fight played a factor. There are estimates that 4 million households bought the fight. Now factor in bars and restaurants. That is a lot of people. 3D falling off is also playing a factor. Though I think this is a good thing on the whole. The death of 3D films cannot come soon enough imo.

But numbers all around are down. No way the Friday number makes sense with all the early showing. It should have done better, it should have beat Potter.

It's a factor, but a narrow demographic. Mostly older men, let's not pretend this was the superbowl.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It's a factor, but a narrow demographic. Mostly older men, let's not pretend this was the superbowl.

Except it kind of was. I think you are underestimating what happened last night. It was a cultural event last night, bigger then the new Avengers film. Because unlike AoU, it is was something new. Something people have been waiting a long time for.

Also I don't considering myself or my brother older men. Not even 30 yet. Us and all our friends watched the fight last night. That shockingly included women. I know. Weird.