The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

[Llama_Shepherd]

I'm with Raiden. I don't expect TDKR to beat The Avengers' OW record. Could be wrong about that, of course, but I don't think I will be.

We worked it out over in TDKR forums and it's not possible for TDKR to beat TA's OW.

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

I think TDKR has the opening day record in the bag, but to match TA's 207 mil with only 2D and longer running time, I just don't see it happening. I do expect TDKR to come close, though, possibly close to the 200 mil range.

Hmmm..you could be right.

But i thought that with TDKR opening in more theatres and the reports that theatres would be opening longer to accomodates fans and whatnot..

 

[Iceman]

What was the headline? (to Suzanne)

 

[Suzanne78]

What was the headline? (to Suzanne)

Her latest headline: http://www.deadline.com/2012/07/warner-bros-paired-dark-knight-rises-with-trailer-of-gangster-shooting-up-movie-theater-which-studio-didnt-take-down-until-i-complained/, which is basically the most UBERcrass version of "TOLDJA!" I've ever seen.

Her earlier headline, right after the news broke: http://www.deadline.com/2012/07/dar...records-scalpers-brinks-trucks-than-avengers/

Just... ew. She is vile.

 

[Silver Surfer]

We worked it out over in TDKR forums and it's not possible for TDKR to beat TA's OW.

Elaborate, please.

 

[Iceman]

Her latest headline: http://www.deadline.com/2012/07/warner-bros-paired-dark-knight-rises-with-trailer-of-gangster-shooting-up-movie-theater-which-studio-didnt-take-down-until-i-complained/, which is basically the most UBERcrass version of "TOLDJA!" I've ever seen.

Her earlier headline, right after the news broke: http://www.deadline.com/2012/07/dar...records-scalpers-brinks-trucks-than-avengers/

Just... ew. She is vile.

All in the best possible taste of course.

 

[Donut]

The Avengers 2 will take back any records lost to TDKR

 

[metaphysician]

i feel like posting on the TDKR board that The Punisher wouldve resolved the entire conflict in all 3 movies in about 10 minutes.

I know this is meant as a joke, but seriously, I hate this meme. Leaving aside issues of comparative skillset entirely. . . Frank can't even put a serious dent in Marvel NYC crime, with all his lethality. He also hasn't killed off the Kingpin. If he can't do that, how the hell is he supposed to make more of a difference in a city with a far worse crime rate and far higher corruption?

 

[Juicy J]

TDKR has already made $70 million worldwide. Anyone discounting this movie as a serious contender to break the OW record is underestimating what this movie can do.
Not saying I think it will happen but I think it's within the realm of possibility.

 

[Rock Sexton]

It's just bizarre how Ledger dies before TDK comes out and now this horrible shooting on the opening of the TDKR.

 

[Punisher_MAX]

I know this is meant as a joke, but seriously, I hate this meme. Leaving aside issues of comparative skillset entirely. . . Frank can't even put a serious dent in Marvel NYC crime, with all his lethality. He also hasn't killed off the Kingpin. If he can't do that, how the hell is he supposed to make more of a difference in a city with a far worse crime rate and far higher corruption?

I'd argue that Marvel NYC, even though it's not as corrupt, is way more difficult because of all it heroes and villains it has.

Let's be real, if Frank wanted Fisk dead it would happen. Hell the MAX series even said at one point that crime has gone down after the Punisher cleaned house. The party with The Joker woulda ended with a bullet in his head.

It was a joke but it's true

 

[Llama_Shepherd]

Elaborate, please.

I wasn't the one who worked it out, but basically because The Dark Knight Rises is longer and opening in fewer cinemas without the help of 3-D showings it is logistically impossible for The Dark Knight Rises to surpass The Avengers opening weekend.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I wasn't the one who worked it out, but basically because The Dark Knight Rises is longer and opening in fewer cinemas without the help of 3-D showings it is logistically impossible for The Dark Knight Rises to surpass The Avengers opening weekend.

Nobody has worked it out. Many reputable sources such box office mojo whose whole business is studying and predicting box office grosses has posted a OW prediction besting that of the avengers.

 

[warriorking]

• Just got back from DKR, have to say I liked the Avengers better, don't get me wrong DKR is a great flick but , it seemed to lack the excitement of TA....Theatre was not full either for the 11:30am showing....

 

[Raiden]

Nobody has worked it out. Many reputable sources such box office mojo whose whole business is studying and predicting box office grosses has posted a OW prediction besting that of the avengers.

I remember that when TA premieres, not many sites had predicted that it'd gross over 200 mil until much later, so I'll take their TDKR prediction with a grain of salt. Plus, after the tragedy at Aurora, who knows whether it will negatively impacted its box office or not. I'll wait until Saturday to see if the estimate will be closer to reality.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Nobody has worked it out. Many reputable sources such box office mojo whose whole business is studying and predicting box office grosses has posted a OW prediction besting that of the avengers.

Box Office Mojo also predicted Avengers to make $400M domestic...

 

[danoyse]

• Just got back from DKR, have to say I liked the Avengers better, don't get me wrong DKR is a great flick but , it seemed to lack the excitement of TA....Theatre was not full either for the 11:30am showing....

My 11:20am show this morning was sold out.

 

[Juicy J]

Box Office Mojo also predicted Avengers to make $400M domestic...

He's not saying they're always correct, he's simply saying that if box office analysts who do this for a living think the movie can gross that much then clearly it's within the realm of possibility.

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

Let's be real, if Frank wanted Fisk dead it would happen. Hell the MAX series even said at one point that crime has gone down after the Punisher cleaned house. The party with The Joker woulda ended with a bullet in his head.

To be even more real...Frank would probably end up killing Batman too ( or he'll try to).

Because in his mind, bats is responsible for letting the Joker live all this time.

 

[Quasimod0]

Sometimes i love the punisher.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Box Office Mojo also predicted Avengers to make $400M domestic...

Yes if anything most of these analysts under estimate to save face. Right until a few days before the release of the avengers analysts were predicting a debut in the 160-170m range.

What has changed predictions for TDKR vs a few weeks ago i believe is the amount of show times theaters have added to meet demand.

Some theaters are playing it 24 hours now.

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

Sometimes i love the punisher.

I love the punisher all the time!

Anyway if you read comics, the upcoming Marvel event is the punisher vs the Avengers!t: it's called warzone!

 

[Tony Stark]

80-85 won't break the record. I posted this on the Bat forums yesterday:

I think you will know tomorrow night. If it breaks the single day record, it might be possible. However if it's in the 80's, that's not enough. It's going to have at least a 30% drop on Saturday due to the high midnight number.

Using TDK's muliplier if it breaks the record for opening day it would look like this:

92 - 64 -59 = 215

85 - 60 - 55 = 200

Now again that's assuming it has the same internal muliplier as TDK. If that midnight number is higher, chances are you'll see close to a 50% drop on Saturday.

If the midnight number doesn't at least come in the 30M range, this won't break the record. For beating Potter and 2D that's cat is in the bag.

That's based on TDK's internals too. In all likelyhood this will have a lower multiplier. I don't think the tragedy is having a huge effect either, I just think the analyst totally overpredicted the response.

 

[psylockolussus]

I hope this movie keeps the record for having the biggest opening weekend!

 

[Stark Bauer]

Lets take it one day at a time. If TDKR can get 80 mil or more on day 1, we have ourselves a contest for OW record.

TA has made 614 million so far and is likely to end up with between 620-625 million total lifetime domestic total gross for its first initial run.