Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[kedrell]

Now the more interesting question(well, to me at least) is will AoU be able to stay above $50m in weekend #3. And also, will that give it the win for the weekend over Mad Max?

 

[kedrell]

So with the actuals going up around $4m the WW total now should be around $630m.

 

[Iceman]

What were the opening weekend predictions of the first Avengers from the official sites just before it opened? I'm struggling to remember.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I disagree that it would have broken the opening weekend record without the fight, I don't believe that was ever in the cards. Sunday more or less corrected course after Saturday's harsher fall. That is the only reason the Sunday drop was so low, it has nothing to do with legs at this point. We will just have to wait and see. I think the people expecting a 100 million second weekend are being delusional. It's at least dropping 55% next weekend.

 

[JC00]

$191m and people are saying it is a failure lol. Movie is going to make $1.5b+ and people are gonna say it was a failure because it didn't set the OW record. Come on.

 

[Jplaya2023]

All im saying is from what WE (fans worldwide expected) and what we got were 2 totally different outcomes.

The movie did great, but not outstanding as we all expected.

Any other movie makes 191 million and it's a huge success, but Avengers making that is kinda meh. just my 2 cents

When Star Wars comes out, I put money it does atleast 250 million.

 

[kedrell]

Honestly we often tend to forget that records really don't mean anything. They're there for bragging rights and comparisons and not much else. How a movie's box office does vis-a-vie it's budget and such will always be the #1 most important thing. And considering that AoU has now doubled it's budget WW and then some with probably a billion $ left in the tank WW still before it's over I'd say it's a smashing success.

 

[kedrell]

All im saying is from what WE (fans worldwide expected) and what we got were 2 totally different outcomes.

The movie did great, but not outstanding as we all expected.

Any other movie makes 191 million and it's a huge success, but Avengers making that is kinda meh. just my 2 cents

When Star Wars comes out, I put money it does atleast 250 million.

It won't get within $75m of that number. Possibly not within $100m. SW7 will be lucky to get the #4 OW spot.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Honestly we often tend to forget that records really don't mean anything. They're there for bragging rights and comparisons and not much else. How a movie's box office does vis-a-vie it's budget and such will always be the #1 most important thing. And considering that AoU has now doubled it's budget WW and then some with probably a billion $ left in the tank WW still before it's over I'd say it's a smashing success.

But you gotta admit the records are fun to track. This page is pretty cool to show the development of the weekend record over time:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/pastrecords.htm

 

[JC00]

All im saying is from what WE (fans worldwide expected) and what we got were 2 totally different outcomes.

The movie did great, but not outstanding as we all expected.

Any other movie makes 191 million and it's a huge success, but Avengers making that is kinda meh. just my 2 cents

When Star Wars comes out, I put money it does atleast 250 million.

It didn't do outstanding? It is the 2nd biggest OW all-time. It is completely asinine to think that isn't outstanding.

Kind of meh? Why because the first one happened to make $16m more OW? So say AoU hits $1.52b WW surpassing AV1, is that still meh?

Star Wars won't come close to $250m OW. It will be lucky to hit $175m OW.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

What were the opening weekend predictions of the first Avengers from the official sites just before it opened? I'm struggling to remember.

I just went back over the box office threads for TA1 and most predictions were for between $165-$180 million, with some thinking it'd struggle to beat Hunger Games by a little bit and that TDKR would overtake it. Shows how far off many were with their predictions.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

All im saying is from what WE (fans worldwide expected) and what we got were 2 totally different outcomes.

The movie did great, but not outstanding as we all expected.

Any other movie makes 191 million and it's a huge success, but Avengers making that is kinda meh. just my 2 cents

When Star Wars comes out, I put money it does atleast 250 million.

Where are you getting this $250 million OW estimate? I never saw any total that high. Like I said before, you obviously weren't paying close enough attention to predictions or don't have a lot of historical knowledge of the domestic box office. Expecting $250 million when the previous record was $207 million is not looking at trends and understanding the limitations of the domestic box office. At some point, I think you're just trolling now.

Also, SW is not getting the OW record by that much, if at all, due to its December release date being so close to the holidays and all the distractions that occur in December and January. SW should hope to get most of its money by having long legs, not a big OW.

 

[kedrell]

But you gotta admit the records are fun to track. This page is pretty cool to show the development of the weekend record over time:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/pastrecords.htm

Oh hell yes. I agree. It's about the only thing(other than RT scores) that we have to pit films against each other with. I realize this isn't sports but it's still a competition of a sort. I don't watch sports at all but I'd imagine they'd be even more boring if they didn't keep score and you just had to let the audience debate on who they thought won the game.

That would be fun to see, now that I think about it. Or they could just skip the preamble and go straight to the riot.

 

[JC00]

It won't get within $75m of that number. Possibly not within $100m. SW7 will be lucky to get the #4 OW spot.

I completely agree with this. I think some people, particularity Star Wars fans overrate it's standing. Yes it is probably the franchise that had the biggest following, but now it has been knocked off its perch with the MCU which appeals to a much broader audience.

 

[Jplaya2023]

Where are you getting this $250 million OW estimate? I never any total that high. Like I said before, you obviously weren't paying close enough attention to predictions or don't have a lot of historical knowledge of the domestic box office. Expecting $250 million when the previous record was $207 million is not looking at trends and understanding the limitations of the domestic box office. At some point, I think you're just trolling now.

Also, SW is not getting the OW record by that much, if at all, due to its December release date being so close to the holidays and all the distractions that occur in December and January. SW should hope to get most of its money by having long legs, not a big OW.

http://www.cinemablend.com/new/Early-Avengers-2-Box-Office-Predictions-Insanely-High-70241.html

By just how much? Well, according to Bloomberg Business, it looks like the Joss Whedon helmed sequel will net an estimated $217 million in its opening weekend. That might be only $10 million past the high water mark set by its predecessor, but considering how saturated the market is with Marvel Studios films, and that any number would struggle to hit that mark, every million counts.

 

[drod1985]

It didn't do outstanding? It is the 2nd biggest OW all-time. It is completely asinine to think that isn't outstanding.

Kind of meh? Why because the first one happened to make $16m more OW? So say AoU hits $1.52b WW surpassing AV1, is that still meh?

Star Wars won't come close to $250m OW. It will be lucky to hit $175m OW.

Agreed on AOU, it's OW performance is nothing but impressive.

But, disagree on Star Wars. The rate at which The Force Awakens teasers break YouTube records is astounding. People are starved for a real Star Wars sequel, and they're finally getting it here. I don't think it'll hit $250m either, but I could see it landing in Avengers territory circa $200m. The only thing holding it back will be the holiday craze.

 

[kedrell]

No December OW has ever even hit $85m, much less $200m. Look for SW 7 to be the first to break $100m OW in December but don't count on it going far beyond that. It'll be a miracle if it can hit $150m OW, right now I'm thinking. People in December are too busy with other holiday stuff.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

http://www.cinemablend.com/new/Early-Avengers-2-Box-Office-Predictions-Insanely-High-70241.html

Still doesn't account for your $250 million figure/expectation since the only prediction from an actual industry insider I saw in that article was $217 million. Only ones going as high as your total were from fans in the comment section, which are never all that accurate since they're working on the assumption that a a sequel's box office total will always be higher than the first and don't take into consideration box office trends.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

...if they didn't keep score and you just had to let the audience debate on who they thought won the game.

Trust me, that's pretty much the sole reason internet sports message boards exist.

Re AoU, if $191 million is a failure, all I can say is that I'd like to fail like that sometime very soon. Like about 2 minutes from now.

 

[Iceman]

I just went back over the box office threads for TA1 and most predictions were for between $165-$180 million, with some thinking it'd struggle to beat Hunger Games by a little bit and that TDKR would overtake it. Shows how far off many were with their predictions.

Oh right interesting to see (with the benefit of hindsight). t:

 

[Iceman]

But you gotta admit the records are fun to track. This page is pretty cool to show the development of the weekend record over time:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/pastrecords.htm

Yeah it actually hasn't changed all that often, although it also doesn't seem to go too long without changing at all. Wonder what will be next!

 

[InJustice]

It didn't do outstanding? It is the 2nd biggest OW all-time. It is completely asinine to think that isn't outstanding.

Kind of meh? Why because the first one happened to make $16m more OW? So say AoU hits $1.52b WW surpassing AV1, is that still meh?

Star Wars won't come close to $250m OW. It will be lucky to hit $175m OW.

You underestimate the power of SW as a pop icon. It also has nostalgia on its side (thanks in part to being a sequel of the original trilogy), so you can bet that SW7 is going to rake in some huge dollars.

As for the thread as a whole. I'm not sure I buy into the idea that Pac vs. Mayweather ruined the dollar potential of the film. IIRC, the match started at 9pm, and looking at local listings, the film showtimes range from 9-9:30 to 11:00 at the latest. I assume that not many people watch movies towards late night as opposed to the afternoon rush (not counting opening night since it's a given that people will watch in the evening). If anything, we're looking at something closer to marginal losses than a huge loss.

 

[Spider-Fan]

No December OW has ever even hit $85m, much less $200m. Look for SW 7 to be the first to break $100m OW in December but don't count on it going far beyond that. It'll be a miracle if it can hit $150m OW, right now I'm thinking. People in December are too busy with other holiday stuff.

You're vastly underestimating Star Wars.

 

[Iceman]

You underestimate the power of SW as a pop icon. It also has nostalgia on its side (thanks in part to being a sequel of the original trilogy), so you can bet that SW7 is going to rake in some huge dollars.

As for the thread as a whole. I'm not sure I buy into the idea that Pac vs. Mayweather ruined the dollar potential of the film. IIRC, the match started at 9pm, and looking at local listings, the film showtimes range from 9-9:30 to 11:00 at the latest. I assume that not many people watch movies towards late night as opposed to the afternoon rush (not counting opening night since it's a given that people will watch in the evening). If anything, we're looking at something closer to marginal losses than a huge loss.

Thing is I doubt many guys who were into both did both on the Saturday. And I wouldn't be surprised if many gave it a miss for that weekend. It was more than 5 hours for the whole show and many people went out for it (I just had people over). But even as a much bigger Avengers fan than the majority of boxing viewers, I couldn't face going to see any film on the Sunday. It would be different if someone just streamed the one fight but for anyone paying it for it and treating the occasion like an event it would have been a big undertaking and they would have needed a totally free weekend to do both. I don't think the impact was huge but it made some difference, maybe $10m.

 

[redfirebird2008]

You underestimate the power of SW as a pop icon. It also has nostalgia on its side (thanks in part to being a sequel of the original trilogy), so you can bet that SW7 is going to rake in some huge dollars.

As for the thread as a whole. I'm not sure I buy into the idea that Pac vs. Mayweather ruined the dollar potential of the film. IIRC, the match started at 9pm, and looking at local listings, the film showtimes range from 9-9:30 to 11:00 at the latest. I assume that not many people watch movies towards late night as opposed to the afternoon rush (not counting opening night since it's a given that people will watch in the evening). If anything, we're looking at something closer to marginal losses than a huge loss.

The fight was going on during primetime on the West Coast. There are actually quite a few people who do go to 9 PM, 10 PM shows for big openers on Saturday night since they know they can sleep in the next morning.

There was also a big NBA game 7 playoff that likely affected Los Angeles and San Antonio quite a bit compared to the rest of the country.