Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Iceman]

Any word on the second weekend numbers?

Yes they're all out, domestic, overseas, worldwide etc. Check boxofficemojo.com.

Sorry I'm on mobile and can't copy and paste at the moment.

 

[Iceman]

Ah, but you see, James Cameron is excluded from the pack. I guess he made some deal with the devil sometime in the past.

It is quite freakish that the 2 biggest freaks in box office history in my time have come from the same guy on quite different projects. I had thought part of Titanic's one off success was down to being based on reality rather than the sci-fi/fantasy/superhero type stuff, even out-there more real material like Mission Impossible, Bond and James Bond that is popular with young and male audiences and this would be more palatable with older guys who hardly ever go to the cinema. But then he did it with Avatar!

 

[marvelrobbins]

Civil War will absolutely not do Avengers numbers as Avengers was the peak of the MCU. Avengers was lighting in a bottle. I think Civil War will be lucky to make 375 million domestically and that's a huge number so Marvel should be happy with that. It doesn't help that Marvel are still pretending that it's solely a Captain America sequel. I'm not saying that he won't be the star of the film but it's not even remotely just a Captain America film.

Considering AOU is expected to do 77 million this weekend it appears my 500 million range prediction for AOU was wrong and domestic total fro AOU is likely to be in 450 million range.

I had been thinking CIvil war would do 400 million domesticly but based on AOU numbers even if civil war gets winter soldier like reaction we are more looking like Civil war does 350 to 375 million Domesticly.

I am still inclinded to believe civil war will be highest grossing comic book film of 2016 Inless people absoletly just fall in Love with BVS and idea of batman VS Superman and first live action appearance of wonder woman since 1970's drives people to theatres.

Civil war is more an avengers sequel with black panther,ant-man replacing thor and hulk and more screentime for Falcon and War Machine.Granted it might be more captain America and avengers than AOU.

 

[Superhero 101]

So no chance of hittin 500 at all?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

So no chance of hittin 500 at all?

Nope.

 

[dalonewolf]

Considering AOU is expected to do 77 million this weekend it appears my 500 million range prediction for AOU was wrong and domestic total fro AOU is likely to be in 450 million range.

I had been thinking CIvil war would do 400 million domesticly but based on AOU numbers even if civil war gets winter soldier like reaction we are more looking like Civil war does 350 to 375 million Domesticly.

I am still inclinded to believe civil war will be highest grossing comic book film of 2016 Inless people absoletly just fall in Love with BVS and idea of batman VS Superman and first live action appearance of wonder woman since 1970's drives people to theatres.

Civil war is more an avengers sequel with black panther,ant-man replacing thor and hulk and more screentime for Falcon and War Machine.Granted it might be more captain America and avengers than AOU.

Civil war will not out gross bvs sorry but there's no way for it to beat the numbers bvs will put up in 2015
I give it 750-850 at best
340 domestic 400-500 foreign

 

[Tony Stark]

So no chance of hittin 500 at all?

Not likely with the competition ahead of it. It would have to have a pretty big recovery next weekend with other flms bombing.

It's running ahead of TDKR which ended at $450, so that's probably the bare minimum, likely to finish at $470.

But to put things in perspective, it will be ahead of all 2014 domestic takes, by the end of next week. It's already ahead of CA: TWS which was no. 4 on the list.

 

[Silver Surfer]

TWS beat MoS

IM3 beat TDKR

2+2 =?

Yeah, CW will beat BvS.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Civil war will not out gross bvs sorry but there's no way for it to beat the numbers bvs will put up in 2015
I give it 750-850 at best
340 domestic 400-500 foreign

Kind of early to be saying that, considering who CW has and we don't know what the buzz will be like when it's ready for release. I think adding IM/RDJ (along with a host of other superheroes) should boost it's total. Plus, if it gets any kind of critical acclaim similar to TWS, then I don't see why a billion is out of the question.

 

[Tony Stark]

Civil war will not out gross bvs sorry but there's no way for it to beat the numbers bvs will put up in 2015
I give it 750-850 at best
340 domestic 400-500 foreign

Whether or not BvS is another question, but CW is a billion dollar film. It was a billion dollar film the moment they announced RDJ. Your post is just plain silly.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Civil War will absolutely not do Avengers numbers as Avengers was the peak of the MCU. Avengers was lighting in a bottle. I think Civil War will be lucky to make 375 million domestically and that's a huge number so Marvel should be happy with that. It doesn't help that Marvel are still pretending that it's solely a Captain America sequel. I'm not saying that he won't be the star of the film but it's not even remotely just a Captain America film.

I think it will do over $400m. The question is with it release date, will BvS have a better shot of beating it.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

No quit here baby! I still believe it will.

Docker, your $100m weekend. It no happen. Where are you?

Not likely with the competition ahead of it. It would have to have a pretty big recovery next weekend with other flms bombing.

It's running ahead of TDKR which ended at $450, so that's probably the bare minimum, likely to finish at $470.

But to put things in perspective, it will be ahead of all 2014 domestic takes, by the end of next week. It's already ahead of CA: TWS which was no. 4 on the list.

Is this were you admit the Sunday and Monday numbers were right on the money? This weekend did not show an increase.

 

[Iceman]

Whether or not BvS is another question, but CW is a billion dollar film. It was a billion dollar film the moment they announced RDJ. Your post is just plain silly.

Agreed on everything!

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Whether or not BvS is another question, but CW is a billion dollar film. It was a billion dollar film the moment they announced RDJ. Your post is just plain silly.

Agreed. He seems to post a lot in box office threads and always seems to lowball every Marvel film. He lost a lot of credibility when he said GotG would be a box office failure and then went on the BvS forum to bash the MCU before being called out on it.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

What Civil War could show is how relevant MCU is domestically. If a movie with basically everyone but Thor and Hulk doesn't do Avengers numbers, you have to start wondering if there is a bit of fatigue locally. It would do fine overseas and will easily pass a billion.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think it will do over $400m. The question is with it release date, will BvS have a better shot of beating it.

The same way everybody thought Age of Ultron was a lock to gross over 500 million? We will see, I'm not counting on it though. The Marvel characters coming together doesn't have the same novelty it did in 2012. I'm only thinking over 350mil because of Spider-Man.

I'm not even going to covertly get into a Marvel v DC thing. I'll discuss that as the films get closer to release but not now. I'm talking about Civil War in relation to Age of Ultron right now.

 

[Val_Zod]

TWS beat MoS

IM3 beat TDKR

2+2 =?

Yeah, CW will beat BvS.

Its not that simple.

You need to take into consideration other governing factors.

TWS unlike MOS: Was a sequel that was coming off the Avengers, got rave reviews, and was released in a much less competitive timeframe

IM3 unlike TDKR: Was the first major Summer film released, had 3d and IMAX, and no shootings that hurt business.



Now on to BvS vs Civil War.

BvS will mark the first time Batman and Superman meet on the big screen, whereas Civil War will be Cap and Tony's 3rd meeting.

BvS will be released in the absolutely dead period of late March to the end of April, while Civil War will have to contend with other Summer flicks which won't be that far off.

Sure Civil War will feature a ton of heroes, and most likely Spiderman in the MCU, but BvS won't be short in the hero cameos, such as WonderWoman.


Of course there is no guarantee to which film will outgross the other, as there are other factors we can't call until closer to release, such as how well both films are market, and WOM, which play a huge part. These are both mammoth films, and alot of things need to be considered, as to which will outgross the other.

 

[Mysteryman]

Glad the film has had the success it has so far.
Still I wish it could have done better.
IW is going to need a lot of momentum, being the first Marvel two part venture and all.

 

[Johnny-Oh]

I think BvS will be bigger than CW domestically but overseas CW will most likely gross more ESPECIALLY if Spider-Man is in it.

 

[def28]

The same way everybody thought Age of Ultron was a lock to gross over 500 million? We will see, I'm not counting on it though. The Marvel characters coming together doesn't have the same novelty it did in 2012. I'm only thinking over 350mil because of Spider-Man.

I'm not even going to covertly get into a Marvel v DC thing. I'll discuss that as the films get closer to release but not now. I'm talking about Civil War in relation to Age of Ultron right now.

But if Spidey ends up being the reason this will crank over 350m doesn't that means these characters coming together still sells on novelty?

Think Tony Stark has more pull then Spidey nowadays. None of his films have scored under 300m. Spidey has had 2 of those. If this was Iron man 4 vs a Spidey reboot I think Iron Man would be the higher grosser.

While I don't doubt Spidey will eventually be back on track making the high numbers he has some making up to do with audiences. After a drop like ASM2 I think it can take a film or two to hit those Iron Man/ Raimi Spidey numbers. Though I could be wrong...

 

[Mysteryman]

Its not that simple.

You need to take into consideration other governing factors.

TWS unlike MOS: Was a sequel that was coming off the Avengers, got rave reviews, and was released in a much less competitive timeframe

IM3 unlike TDKR: Was the first major Summer film released, had 3d and IMAX, and no shootings that hurt business.



Now on to BvS vs Civil War.

BvS will mark the first time Batman and Superman meet on the big screen, whereas Civil War will be Cap and Tony's 3rd meeting.


BvS will be released in the absolutely dead period of late March to the end of April, while Civil War will have to contend with other Summer flicks which won't be that far off.

Sure Civil War will feature a ton of heroes, and most likely Spiderman in the MCU, but BvS won't be short in the hero cameos, such as WonderWoman.



Of course there is no guarantee to which film will outgross the other, as there are other factors we can't call until closer to release, such as how well both films are market, and WOM, which play a huge part. These are both mammoth films, and a lot of things need to be considered, as to which will outgross the other.

I have often wondered what TDKR'S Box Office would be like if the shooting had never happened ,

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's virtually impossible to know what TDKR box office would have been if that horrible piece of human garbage hadn't murdered those innocent people. I suspect it would have cracked 500million but not quite reached TDK's 533mil gross. Of course this is just a guess because we will never know.

 

[Iceman]

What Civil War could show is how relevant MCU is domestically. If a movie with basically everyone but Thor and Hulk doesn't do Avengers numbers, you have to start wondering if there is a bit of fatigue locally. It would do fine overseas and will easily pass a billion.

I think Iron Man 3 numbers would be acceptable domestically. That initial wave of euphoria at these new properties I think has passed but I also think the MCU can persist at slightly lower but still large numbers long term (domestically).

 

[warhorse78]

Think this movie might see some big numbers next weekend? Memorial Day weekend is coming up.

 

[Docker2.0]

Docker, your $100m weekend. It no happen. Where are you?



Is this were you admit the Sunday and Monday numbers were right on the money? This weekend did not show an increase.

What are you talking about?! It made $100M this weekend...................




















































In my heart.

Civil war will not out gross bvs sorry but there's no way for it to beat the numbers bvs will put up in 2015
I give it 750-850 at best
340 domestic 400-500 foreign

Spoken like a true fanboy. There's no way at this point to tell which will outgross the other but I'd tend to lean toward CW only because it's established and is family oriented more so than the dark BvS. But even I wouldn't say there's "no way" for CW to beat it. Geez people! It's two different "universes" can we just enjoy them without the constant comparisons?!