Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Mysteryman]

Sportshoopla guy?

Anyway, I agree. Them making $1.5B WW is better than making $400 DOM.

AOU is gong to end up doing both.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I picked one fight wrong and you won't let it go. Geez! Shut up darn it!!!

Darth is will never let my bad Guardians of the Galaxy prediction go. It's just the way he is.

 

[warhorse78]

I picked one fight wrong and you won't let it go. Geez! Shut up darn it!!!

What, you thought Mayweather was going to lose???? I know nothing about boxing, but just looking at these two guys in the news paper, it wasn't hard to pick who the winner was going to be, at all!

 

[Docker2.0]

Nope picked Mayweather.

 

[Snark88]

Do people here understand that International Box Office isn't as important as Domestic?

The studio gets a much smaller cut from overseas ticket sales than they do in the states.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Do people here understand that International Box Office isn't as important as Domestic?

The studio gets a much smaller cut from overseas ticket sales than they do in the states.

It depends.

It's true the take is generally smaller but the international box office is growing so much compared to even 10 years ago that the sheer amount of money does balance things out somewhat.

I think when a film breaks 1 billion WW it's considered profitable under any circumstance. Film franchises like Transformers are purely thriving at this point based on how much they make overseas.

 

[Johnny-Oh]

Do people here understand that International Box Office isn't as important as Domestic?

The studio gets a much smaller cut from overseas ticket sales than they do in the states.

That depends, if you're interested in how much profit the studio will make then I guess Domestic is more important.

However to me is more of a measure of how many people are interested in a movie and the level of popularity it reached.

 

[jmc]

It's not really a black and white thing when it comes to international box office, there's always going to be a fluctuation as to how much the studios get back. China might earn a film $150-200m but most of that will remain in China. The real money is with the merchandise.

 

[8ulk]

875 mil so far. Next week it wil go over 1 bil thanks to China.

Im gonna say 1,625 bil will be the final number WW.


As far as Civil War making it to a billion i think thats a lock.
Its pretty easy for a blockbuster to make a billion nowdays with China which went from 100 mil grosses to 300-400 in just 2 years.

I think that the 1 bil mark shouldnt be considered an important milestone anymore.
Fenks China for ruining that for us.

Both Cap 3 CW & BvS DoJ will do 1,0-1,3 bil WW. The better movie will win hopefully.

 

[NJCaliboi]

Congrats for AOU's box office success it deserves it! Second biggest OW ever! Second biggest 2nd week ever! Spin it anyway u like to pretend those numbers are anything less than spectacular.

Ive said it a few times already, but coming up 2nd to the original to a small minority is disappointing but when u look at it what it's actually doing its showing that Marvel is still leading the way and that interest is still high.

When BVS comes out lets see if its judged so harshly if it doesn't eclipse the numbers of the orignal Avengers, since to some that's the only true measure of success...

 

[dr fate]

domestically this is going to fall short of the 1st one, which is obvious now but it should make up for it over seas. so id say $450 domestic and $1.15 billion over seas so 1.6 billion world wide which was my prediction anyway.

 

[HammerDown]

Anyway, I agree. Them making $1.5B WW is better than making $400 DOM.

I do think AOU is gonna make 400M DOM.

My guess that AOU is gonna do more than the first one has to do with the insane increase in the chinese market.
Looking at FF6 and FF7.
FF6 did a total of 66M in China.
FF7 has done a total of 371M in China more than the US gross!!

The Avengers did a total of 86M in China.
If AOU follows the same path...

If it doesn't do great in China then i would say AOU is gonna hit 1.2/1.3B WW.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Darth is will never let my bad Guardians of the Galaxy prediction go. It's just the way he is.

 

[Iceman]

I think it is about the reception. That is how you get legs. The front end will be easily, the back end is the question.


That isn't the question. We are talking about fatigue. This is one of the reasons why I still think Star Wars will win the year. It is a brand, but fresh.

Ok I was just responding to the last bit, hadn't read the preceding discussion. Ignore me. t:

 

[Frodo]

Congrats for AOU's box office success it deserves it! Second biggest OW ever! Second biggest 2nd week ever! Spin it anyway u like to pretend those numbers are anything less than spectacular.

Ive said it a few times already, but coming up 2nd to the original to a small minority is disappointing but when u look at it what it's actually doing its showing that Marvel is still leading the way and that interest is still high.

When BVS comes out lets see if its judged so harshly if it doesn't eclipse the numbers of the orignal Avengers, since to some that's the only true measure of success...

Oh trust me, BvS will be considered as harshly if it doesn't come close to AOU opening numbers. Its not gonna get a pass by any means, so I don't even buy that there's gonna be some double standard by fanboys who largely hated MOS, and hate the idea of BvS.

BvS is already seen as "ruining comic book movies" by a large portion of fanboys, so I doubt its gonna be cut any slack.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think the minimum AOU makes in China is 200 m.

 

[JC00]

I think the minimum AOU makes in China is 200 m.

I say minimum is $300m


Fast 6 did $66m in China. Fast 7 is sitting at $371m as of 8 days ago there.

Avengers did $86m in China.

 

[Iceman]

Do people here understand that International Box Office isn't as important as Domestic?

The studio gets a much smaller cut from overseas ticket sales than they do in the states.

True, I think most know that by now. But that doesn't mean the overseas take is less important.

A smaller cut of a market that has already done $2B before China exploded with other markets also following suit is potentially at least as significant for those films that can take advantage. It could be a long time before a US film does that kind of number. Not to mention Titanic's overseas haul back in 1997. If you get half the cut but double the receipts then they are equally important. But as things are going the cuts are unlikely to go lower while the receipts are exploding. Conversely the US is static minus inflation (especially if you strip out the now waning temporary boost of 3D). Won't be long before overseas is more important than US even in net terms after all costs and splits are taken into account.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I think the minimum AOU makes in China is 200 m.

Early indications appear promising. The hardcore box office trackers over at the box office theory boards say pre-sales for just the midnight opening shows in China are tracking for about $4.8 million.

 

[JB33]

Weekend actuals are in. As per a tweet by boxoffice.com, Avengers: Age of Ultron took in a slightly higher than expected $77.75M:

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice 13m13 minutes ago
AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON took in $77.75M this weekend. Domestic total stands at $313.40M. #Avengers #AgeOfUltron

We all pretty much knew this, but now it's official: Avengers: Age of Ultron now stands #2 all time on the list of second weekends behind The Avengers ($103.05M).

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

Massive drop. Was not expecting that.

 

[Suzanne78]

Compared to he first Avengers, it's a bigger drop.

Compared to other CBM/blockbusters... I honk it's about average, right? 59-60%? Or am I mathing wrong?

 

[Tony Stark]

Yeah it's not a massive drop. It's a standard drop for this genre. It's actually lower than TDKR's 2nd weekend drop, and roughly the same as IM3.

60% is about average, 55% is a good hold 50% would be an excellent hold. The highest second week hold on record is Spider-man 1 that was only -34%, which will never be seen again in this genre.

massive drop would be 70% with movies like Wolverine XMO, or Ang Lee's Hulk. A bad drop would be 66% like X-men the last stand, 64% DOFP.

 

[Iceman]

Avengers was an amazing hold from such a big opening weekend. This one is just a standard fall.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah it's not a massive drop. It's a standard drop for this genre. It's actually lower than TDKR's 2nd weekend drop, and roughly the same as IM3.

60% is about average, 55% is a good hold 50% would be an excellent hold. The highest second week hold on record is Spider-man 1 that was only -34%, which will never be seen again in this genre.

massive drop would be 70% with movies like Wolverine XMO, or Ang Lee's Hulk. A bad drop would be 66% like X-men the last stand, 64% DOFP.

Weren't you saying the drop wouldn't be this high, because last weekend was "weird" do to the sporting events?