Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Tony Stark]

"Problem" is a strong word to use for a film that has grossed over 1 billion dollars in 24 days. If there is even a slight issue I'd say it's a word of mouth issue in North America. The word of mouth isn't bad or anything but it's not as good as the first film's.

Agreed. I never expected another 3.0 multiplier, but it may end up closer to IM3's multiplier which I wasn't expecting. I was definitely thinking $500M was a lock after the opening weekend.

Also I knew it was going to have tougher competition than A1 did, but this is A LOT tougher competition.

 

[JB33]

Okay, I've thought about it a bit more and I'm starting to wonder how the hell $390M was raked in this week alone. As far as we know, the overseas total after last weekend was $607.4M. Now, going into the weekend it's at approx. $990M. What the hell....? Am I simply underestimating how much money a big film like this can rake in in a matter of 4 days (Monday to Thursday) or am I missing something here?

EDIT: It seems boxoffice.com has ammended its article. It originally stated that the film was at $990M overseas and $1.23B worldwide but that was obviously a screw-up. It's at $990M worldwide. Makes more sense.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah was about to say that.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yeah that number didn't seem right.

 

[hafizbat]

Considering the first film made 1.5 billion I'd be surprised if they didn't spend more than TASM 2 overall.

As for Marvel's feelings I'm sure the film is going to make a lot of money for them but there are slight cracks or maybe dents in their flagship franchise's armor. I mean it sounds ridiculous for me to say and I've resisted even thinking it because it sounds stupid saying this about a film that has made so much money.

I'm not saying that they are in trouble because they aren't I'm saying that they could get in trouble if they ignore the criticisms. And I don't mean whining fanboy/fan girl nitpicking, I mean actual criticisms.

I think that's a good thing. Too much success can lead to complacency and the loss of the drive that made them so successful in the first place. They need to stay hungry.

It's actually a pretty ideal scenario for a fan of Marvel Studios. They make more than enough to still be rolling in it, but there's just enough disappointment that they'll surely be on their toes now. Hopefully this will lead to more sharpness and innovation, and they'll get back to IM1/TWS quality. They now know they have to bring their A-game to stay on top of the world.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Bummer for us box office junkies:

@raysubers: After nearly 5.5 years, today is my last day at IMDb / Box Office Mojo! Sad to leave, but excited to take on a new challenge/opportunity.

I had a feeling something like this was coming ever since BOM went down for a few days last year and then Subers and the site returned, but he wouldn't explain what happened. I hope this doesn't mean the end is near for BOM too.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think that's a good thing. Too much success can lead to complacency and the loss of the drive that made them so successful in the first place. They need to stay hungry.

It's actually a pretty ideal scenario for a fan of Marvel Studios. They make more than enough to still be rolling in it, but there's just enough disappointment that they'll surely be on their toes now. Hopefully this will lead to more sharpness and innovation, and they'll get back to IM1/TWS quality. They now know they have to bring their A-game to stay on top of the world.

Exactly. I don't want them to just say "good enough," I don't want any studio to become complacent just because they've had a terrific run. And I have maintained that studios (and filmmakers) should welcome legitimate criticism, whether that studio is Marvel, Pixar, WB or Sony. And I don't mean criticism of movies nobody has seen, I mean criticism of released films.

 

[Pickle-El]

Agreed. I never expected another 3.0 multiplier, but it may end up closer to IM3's multiplier which I wasn't expecting. I was definitely thinking $500M was a lock after the opening weekend.

Also I knew it was going to have tougher competition than A1 did, but this is A LOT tougher competition.

A LOT Of the Marvel films have benefited from excellent release dates that have left wide open windows to perform if they had even a modest opening. (Some incredible openings) As well as other films under performing against them. It really is a testament to the brilliant release dates.

It feels like Phase 2 has a lot of goodwill from Avengers 1, momentum definitely has been on their side. It seems like some of that goodwill has finally started to wear a little as it has winded down. While still having huge openings, I think we won't see the real results of Phase 2 until we reach Phase 3. Ant-Man/Dr Strange/Thor 3 will be interesting.

I think other studios are also adjusting their strategies against big Marvel films. I can see them trying their hardest to jump on these big Marvel openings with strong brands themselves. Ant-Man has Pixels, SouthPaw, and MI6 hot on it's tail.

This weekend will be something new for a big May Marvel film with 2 potential breakouts going head to head against it. It feels like Summer come early.

A2 strikes me as similar to MOS's run with a much bigger opening. 1-2 Weeks to itself with mixed/good WOM, with a decent run until big competition came and really began chewing away at its legs.

 

[Pickle-El]

I'm just speaking domestic here btw...

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

So will it pass the first Avengers?

 

[JB33]

Box Office Mojo currently has AoU standing at $990.1M worldwide, the figure that many other sources are reporting. Problem is, these sites are running stories that the movie has passed $1B. 990M is not 1B. Either it hasn't actually passed the $1B mark or there are more box office receipts that people are aware of that just haven't been factored in for some reason.

Either way, this is right about where I predicted the movie would be going into the weekend, either just past the $1B mark or right on the precipice. By Monday, once all domestic and overseas grosses are accounted for, it should fall between $1.10 and $1.15B.

EDIT: Nevermind, not really thinking this through lol. I guess the movie was at $990M going into TODAY and everyone is just announcing it has joined the $1B club being that it will obviously be guaranteed to do so today, its 24th day of release.

Don't mind me and my painfully slow way of working these things out, folks.

 

[kedrell]

So will it pass the first Avengers?

With little doubt, I'd say.

 

[rashad]

So will it pass the first Avengers?

1.3-1.4 million worldwide finish is my guess.

 

[kedrell]

^I'm thinking $1.6b

Also, F7 loses it's #1 DOM spot today.

 

[Iceman]

^I'm thinking $1.6b

Also, F7 loses it's #1 DOM spot today.

Oh yeah. Forgot all about that domestic crown!

 

[Iceman]

Box Office Mojo currently has AoU standing at $990.1M worldwide, the figure that many other sources are reporting. Problem is, these sites are running stories that the movie has passed $1B. 990M is not 1B. Either it hasn't actually passed the $1B mark or there are more box office receipts that people are aware of that just haven't been factored in for some reason.

Either way, this is right about where I predicted the movie would be going into the weekend, either just past the $1B mark or right on the precipice. By Monday, once all domestic and overseas grosses are accounted for, it should fall between $1.10 and $1.15B.

EDIT: Nevermind, not really thinking this through lol. I guess the movie was at $990M going into TODAY and everyone is just announcing it has joined the $1B club being that it will obviously be guaranteed to do so today, its 24th day of release.

Don't mind me and my painfully slow way of working these things out, folks.

Yeah exactly. They always do this for guaranteed intraday goals.

 

[Dark Raven]

I still think Star Wars is going to do better than this movie in the end. It has the original cast back and is more of a novelty than seeing the Avengers together again. Also, I think AOU seemed to hit all the same beats as the first film. It wasn't perhaps different enough, like Winter Soldier was from the First Avenger, and clearly exceeding it in every way.

 

[Tony Stark]

I still think Star Wars is going to do better than this movie in the end. It has the original cast back and is more of a novelty than seeing the Avengers together again. Also, I think AOU seemed to hit all the same beats as the first film. It wasn't perhaps different enough, like Winter Soldier was from the First Avenger, and clearly exceeding it in every way.

Alot will depend on the reviews. I think people still have the Prequels in their mind and they also remember Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.

However all things being equal, I think that it could be setup to have an Avatar type run, and thus surpass this film for the year.

 

[KBX]

Star Wars will end up around 200 million short WW of AoU. In order to beat it, Star Wars will have to be an Excellent movie - No lower than 90% in Rotten Tomatoes

 

[Bruce Malone]

Star Wars will end up around 200 million short WW of AoU. In order to beat it, Star Wars will have to be an Excellent movie - No lower than 90% in Rotten Tomatoes

I have a feeling it's going to do quite well with critics.

Something about the nostalgia factor I feel is going to resonate.

Either way the difference between an 85% or 90% on RT as an effect on BO is probably negligible.

 

[JangoNate]

The quality will definitely be there. They know how people feel about those prequels and therefor know they can't just get by the Star Wars name alone. There are big plans for this franchise and they need this first one to decimate the box office. I have high hopes.

 

[Iceman]

The RT rating itself has no implication for box office beyond what is implied by the fact that it has a high rating (ie the chances of it being well received are higher). Most people in the world have still not heard of the site, never mind checking it regularly. But I agree a small difference in the tomatometer doesn't mean much but a small difference in the average rating can mean the film is that bit closer to a classic that will get many more rewatches.

 

[rashad]

The quality will definitely be there. They know how people feel about those prequels and therefor know they can't just get by the Star Wars name alone. There are big plans for this franchise and they need this first one to decimate the box office. I have high hopes.

No they don't. Like Tony Stark said, Episode 7 needs rebuild the good will of the franchise. Everyone involved is saying the right things but it's all about the final product. This film at the very least needs to be good. It should have a good box office run depending the quality. Setting up the potential for Episode 8 to explode.

 

[Pond]

Exactly. I don't want them to just say "good enough," I don't want any studio to become complacent just because they've had a terrific run. And I have maintained that studios (and filmmakers) should welcome legitimate criticism, whether that studio is Marvel, Pixar, WB or Sony. And I don't mean criticism of movies nobody has seen, I mean criticism of released films.

Wich ones? The 9 out of 10 or the 4 out of 10? You realize that ACTUAL critics have been wrong before, right? I mean, they are not valid just when you agree with them. Marvel should NOT listen to critics. Never. Ever. Thats how garbage is made. Take them in consideration, perhaps, but never listen to them. They should be true to themselves. Success is not breaking box office records and getting theyre asses critically kissed. Success is making a great movie. That should be theyre goal.

The one thing they should NEVER do is making a movie I SEE SPIDER would like. Or anyone else fior that matter.

 

[Lord]

Alot will depend on the reviews. I think people still have the Prequels in their mind and they also remember Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.

However all things being equal, I think that it could be setup to have an Avatar type run, and thus surpass this film for the year.

Thing is, when it came out, Avatar was a new brand, everyone wanted to see it and have their oun opinions after. With Star Wars, everyone knows it, and while the originals are classics, a lot of people dislike the franchise too, the thing about SW being so known is that everyone already has a formed opinion of it, and not all of it is possible. I'm sure almost all of us know one person or two who hate SW with a passion and/ or would rather be caught dead than seeing Episode VII.