Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[warriorking]

Domestically it has now passed F7 and is the top film of 2015, and its crossed the 1Billion Mark WW, wonder what the official China numbers will be come Monday...

 

[Raiden]

I do too. Disney proper needs a live action hit, after Lone Ranger and John Carter. They do great with the animated films (with the exception of Mars Needs Moms), they suck at making live action films, if it weren't for Marvel the last few years, they'd be in serious trouble.

Marvel has already given Disney 3 movies that grossed over 1 billion WW individually, and MCU is now the highest-grossing movie franchise in the history. I'm sure it has spoiled Disney a bit and let them concentrate on the movies they do best, which are animation and live action remake of animated classics (like Cinderella).

 

[take3]

 

[Wildcard]

Will be really interesting to see where it's at by the end of the weekend once the foreign numbers have really been factored in.

 

[Tymminator]

Looking at the release date, I'm almost certain Starwars will own the domestic crown this year. Though the hunger games finale is a dark horse, shame I already know what the second half of that (book) movie entails. Catching Fire really was destined to be their strongest one, but splitting their shortest and arguably weakest book into two...I digress. I think american audiences will feed star wars all throughout that first quarter. Especially if the movie is good(and has an ending).

I gotta agree with all of this.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Domestically it has now passed F7 and is the top film of 2015, and its crossed the 1Billion Mark WW, wonder what the official China numbers will be come Monday...

It apparently had a strong Saturday so it should be around $150 million by the end of the weekend.

 

[Iceman]

Where do you see the China Saturday news? That would be a great number to get to by Sunday.

 

[PalmerTheThing]

98% doesn't imply that a film is good. It just means nearly all reviewers thought it was at least ok. You could get 100% without any good reviews.

You're delusional.

 

[Iceman]

And you don't understand the website. You'll feel foolish when you look into it. The methodology of the Tomatometer is explained. I'm not criticising Mad Max, the average rating is crazy good.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Where do you see the China Saturday news? That would be a great number to get to by Sunday.

Box office theory forums: http://forums.boxofficetheory.com

 

[ernesth100]

So has AoU opened everywhere yet?

 

[Iceman]

Box office theory forums: http://forums.boxofficetheory.com

Thanks for that

So the 5 day is about $120m and the Saturday was 6th highest day ever despite the film opening on a Tuesday. I think the Sunday will be lower so maybe $145mish by the end of the weekend. Excellent start there!

 

[Iceman]

So has AoU opened everywhere yet?

Japan is not till July.

 

[ernesth100]

When did it open in China?

 

[Iceman]

Last Tuesday. So this is its first weekend right now.

 

[ernesth100]

Okay, yep. Definatelybstill going. This thing is a juggernaut.

 

[Iceman]

The first film made $45m in Japan so it will be a nice boost late on.

 

[JB33]

Looks like AoU took a big leap back up in China:

BoxOffice @BoxOffice · 1h 1 hour ago
Saturday China Box Office Update: 'Ultron' Grabs $30.8M on First Saturday; 5-Day Estimate $120M http://fb.me/7uT9V96eQ

As noted in the article, the $30.8 Saturday gross is the 6th highest single day gross in Chinese box office history, right up there close to the film's opening day.

 

[Iceman]

That article also mentions that it got 95% market share on 63% of China's screens so it's pretty much a sellout. The number of screens the only limiting factor. Good indication of spare capacity for some legs to this at least till it drops below capacity.

 

[Raiden]

Great news! I hope AOU will gross more than 500 mil in China.

 

[Superhero 101]

Do the box office experts a lot of money from Japan even though it is opening three months after the U.S and other countries?

 

[TalismanRing]

Looks like AoU took a big leap back up in China:


As noted in the article, the $30.8 Saturday gross is the 6th highest single day gross in Chinese box office history, right up there close to the film's opening day.

That's an early number while they were still tallying. Latest official number is:

AOU Saturday 234.5M/$37.7M,
Biggest Saturday, second biggest single day.

For a total of $128m. Should be around $155m by Sunday for the first 6 days.

 

[TalismanRing]

Do the box office experts a lot of money from Japan even though it is opening three months after the U.S and other countries?

A late opening doesn't hurt in Japan but rather helps. It's a market that relies heavily on WOM from other markets to drum up interest for foreign titles and they don't have a Piracy problem. Superhero films aren't big there except Spider-man and the first Avengers and even then they're not huge. AOU is expected to make less than Avengers (~$45m) though.

 

[metaphysician]

I wonder how Marvel and Disney feel. On one hand, they are making a truck load of money. On another, I think it is falling under their expectations, especially with their investment here. This movie probably ended up costing a lot more then TASM2. Any chance that all said and done, they didn't spend well over $500m?

I think its virtually certain they *didn't* spend more than Sony did making TASM2. The reason is because, unlike Sony, Marvel Studios actually knows how to keep budgets under control.

Remember: marketing budgets are best ignored unless something unusual is happening, because so much of the marketing "budget" is fudgeable paper costs that don't really translate into real dollars spent. Combine that with tax breaks ( which are *not* factored into the production budget ), and your best just looking at the production budget.

 

[ironman_rick]

And you don't understand the website. You'll feel foolish when you look into it. The methodology of the Tomatometer is explained. I'm not criticising Mad Max, the average rating is crazy good.

I know this is not the thread....but Mad Max was an awesome movie. The best movie I have seen this year by far. I really hope it gets to half a billion.

As for AOU...I understand it should have grossed close to $150M by sunday 23:59 in china. I just want this movie to hit at least $300M in china. That should cover all the domestic shortfall. And with the movie outgrossing the 1st avengers everywhere else..... this could hit $1.5B if it does make $300M in china.

This way AOU should top the domestic and WW boxoffice until SW7 comes along.