Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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And there are also NFL geeks like yours truly for whom last Thurs-Fri-Sat were the highlight of the offseason, the 2015 Draft. That's why I didn't see AoU until Sunday. I doubt the draft was a big reason for any softness by itself, but I'm sure it was another drop in the bucket.
 
Sunday drop was only -11% way under A1's Sunday drop. So I'm pretty much going to say the fight had a net zero effect for the weekend.

I'll be curious of the weekday numbers, but this should have very good legs, and based on Sunday I'd say it has a punchers chance at 90M, but I'd say 83-85 for certain. 78 is probably worst case.

No idea what tracking is for Mad Max, but I'm going to say AoU is no 1 for three weeks until I see some evidence that people are really wanting to see MM.

If MM doesn't Tomorrowland will probably knock it out of the top spot, and hopefully it will have a good hold. Again I bet Feige and some Marvel execs are pissed that Iger let them release that so close to AoU. That's the one movie I could see having a real negative effect.

I'm torn on Poltergeist. My gut feeling is "flop" and the fact that Fox/MGM released it head to head with tomorrowland tells me they think it's crap.
 
All im saying is from what WE (fans worldwide expected) and what we got were 2 totally different outcomes.

The movie did great, but not outstanding as we all expected.

Any other movie makes 191 million and it's a huge success, but Avengers making that is kinda meh. just my 2 cents

When Star Wars comes out, I put money it does atleast 250 million.

The 2nd highest opening weekend ever is not outstanding? Heh. Ok man....
 
Week 3 has Mad Max but its an R rated feature so its audience will be limited somewhat, not sure if AOU will stay on top or not...
Tomorrowland will definitely dethrone AOU...
 
Sunday drop was only -11% way under A1's Sunday drop. So I'm pretty much going to say the fight had a net zero effect for the weekend.

I'll be curious of the weekday numbers, but this should have very good legs, and based on Sunday I'd say it has a punchers chance at 90M, but I'd say 83-85 for certain. 78 is probably worst case.

No idea what tracking is for Mad Max, but I'm going to say AoU is no 1 for three weeks until I see some evidence that people are really wanting to see MM.

If MM doesn't Tomorrowland will probably knock it out of the top spot, and hopefully it will have a good hold. Again I bet Feige and some Marvel execs are pissed that Iger let them release that so close to AoU. That's the one movie I could see having a real negative effect.

I'm torn on Poltergeist. My gut feeling is "flop" and the fact that Fox/MGM released it head to head with tomorrowland tells me they think it's crap.
I'm not sure what Iger was thinking there either. Something tells me there'll be some tension behind the scenes if Tomorrowland cuts off some of AoU's domestic legs.
 
AoU would be anywhere from 45-50M depending on W2. If MM get's a 50M weekend, then AoU is probably a close 2nd. However judging by a film like Prometheus, which was R, and had better public awareness only got 51 million (and that was considered a disappointment), I think MM will get under 45M. Reviews could change everything with that one.
 
You underestimate the power of SW as a pop icon. It also has nostalgia on its side (thanks in part to being a sequel of the original trilogy), so you can bet that SW7 is going to rake in some huge dollars.


No I think I estimate it just fine. It will do big money but I just don't think it will come within $20m of the OW record. I think max it hits $185m OW.
 
I'm not sure what Iger was thinking there either. Something tells me there'll be some tension behind the scenes if Tomorrowland cuts off some of AoU's domestic legs.

Marvel should also have a problem with Star Wars Episode VIII release date of May 26, 2017, is going to take part of the hype and BO away from GOTG 2 (May 5, 2017). SW is going to rule that summer easily if the new trilogy is as good as it seems.

On AOU, even if it makes less money than the first one, it will make more than enough to keep them satisfied. When future Avenger sequels drop down to 900m or less, which will happen sooner or later, then Disney and Marvel will not be as happy, till then...
 
I'm not sure what Iger was thinking there either. Something tells me there'll be some tension behind the scenes if Tomorrowland cuts off some of AoU's domestic legs.

Well I get that this was a weird time when Memorial day weekend fell earlier in the month because the 31'st is on a Sunday. There was going to be some kind of a big film Memorial day so AoU was going to have competition for sure, but for it to come from inside your own parent company probably wasn't too popular.

This just shows how lucky A1 was to have such weak competition as Battleship, Dark Shadows and MIB3. Even though MIB 3 won the weekend, it was a pretty weak showing. Where A1 had a -34% hold for the weekend proper and only -15% when including the holiday.

I think the numbers will be steeper than that against Tomorrowland, but still I think it will have a good show over Memorial Day.
 
Marvel should also have a problem with Star Wars Episode VIII release date of May 26, 2017, is going to take part of the hype and BO away from GOTG 2 (May 5, 2017). SW is going to rule that summer easily if the new trilogy is as good as it seems.

On AOU, even if it makes less money than the first one, it will make more than enough to keep them satisfied. When future Avenger sequels drop down to 900m or less, which will happen sooner or later, then Disney and Marvel will not be as happy, till then...
That May 2017 schedule is definitely loaded and it's not like GotG 2 can move up a week or two because Furious 8 will open April 14th and SW can't really move back because it has Fantastic Four 2 and Toy Story 4 opening up in consecutive weeks.
 
That May 2017 schedule is definitely loaded and it's not like GotG 2 can move up a week or two because Furious 8 will open April 14th and SW can't really move back because it has Fantastic Four 2 and Toy Story 4 opening up in consecutive weeks.

Guardians would be much better counterprogramming to Furious 8 (different studio, different genre, different target audience) than Star Wars 8 (same genre, same studio, same target audience). In fact, I would be shocked if Guardians isn't moved into April.
 
‘Avengers: Age of Ultron’ Poll: Over 50% Skipped Movie for Mayweather-Pacquiao Fight

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/avengers-age-of-ultron-mayweather-pacquiao-poll-1201486819/

“Avengers: Age of Ultron” dominated the box office this weekend, but in the record books, it will have to settle for runner-up status.

The superhero sequel scored a massive $191.3 million opening, but that fell short of projections that had it topping the first “Avengers'” record-breaking $207.4 million bow. Blame Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao, the boxers behind the so-called “fight of the century,” for dinging the film’s box office total.

The Saturday boxing match caused a number of potential moviegoers to steer clear of the mulitplexes and hit up pay-per-view, according to polling conducted by C4-R&D.

The market research firm surveyed 641 respondents and discovered that 52% of those who didn’t see a movie this weekend said it was because of the fight. Of those who opted to see boxing over a movie, 24% reported there wasn’t enough time to see both the Mayweather and Pacquiao smackdown and watch the Avengers save the world. Fifteen percent said friends and family wanted to see the fight instead of the movie, while 13% said after shelling out $100 for the boxing match there wasn’t enough money left over to buy tickets to “Avengers: Age of Ultron.”

“The hype around it being the ‘fight of the century’ impacted people across the nation, and it was at night, and the fight was a long process,” said Kristen Simmons, chief innovation officer of C4-R&D.

It’s rare that a cultural event like Mayweather vs. Pacquiao would reverberate at cinemas. Simmons said it’s a myth that the release of a major videogame negatively impacts box office, because research suggests that ticket sales are unaffected by the debut of a “Call of Duty” or “World of Warcraft.”

“It was an event that had a competitive impact,” she said. “I didn’t realize the fullness of the impact it would have.”

People who saw the fight, but not a movie, overlapped with the main demographic groups that took in “Avengers: Age of Ultron” — they were 62% male, and 64% between the ages of 13-29. Opening weekend audiences for the film were 59% male, 22% between the ages of 17-25 and 27% between 26 and 34 years old. Ticket sales for “Avengers: Age of Ultron” dropped sharply on Saturday night, particularly during hours when people across the country were gathering to watch boxing.

Forty five percent of those polled said they didn’t plan on seeing a movie last weekend and the fight never factored into that decision. Among people who saw the fight but skipped “Avengers: Age of Ultron,” 50% were white, 20% were black and 25% were Hispanic.

It was a busy weekend for sports fans, with the Kentucky Derby, the NBA and NHL playoffs and a Red Sox vs. Yankees match-up all taking place, but those events had less impact, according to the poll. Only 2% of those surveyed said they planned to see the “Avengers” sequel, but decided not to because of “other reasons.”

Simmons argues that Disney was wise to debut “Avengers: Age of Ultron” on May 1 despite the level of interest in the Mayweather and Pacquiao rumble.

“It kicks off the summer season, which I think is important,” she said. “It still made a tremendous amount of money.”
 
Guardians would be much better counterprogramming to Furious 8 (different studio, different genre, different target audience) than Star Wars 8 (same genre, same studio, same target audience). In fact, I would be shocked if Guardians isn't moved into April.
Disney won't be stupid enough to put Guardians up against Furious 8.
 
I think it did extremely well, but it might have done a little better if it had opened here a week earlier.
 
You're vastly underestimating Star Wars.

I think Star Wars fans are vastly underestimating how the box office works in December. They just don't open as big there. It's a different dynamic. SW7, in order to get the OW record, would need to more than double the highest jump of a month's(ANY MONTH'S) OW from the previous one. The Avengers currently holds that record at $56m that it exceeded SM3's May OW by. Biggest jump in history. F7 over Cap2 came close with $52m recently but Avengers1 still holds that particular crown in it's trophy case along with all the others it still has.

Well SW7 would need to make around $123m more than Hobbit#1's OW to take the OW record. I don't think SW7 is more anticipated than the first Hobbit movie was when it came out. That also had a decade of hype and waiting building it up and was the next bit to arguably the greatest movie trilogy of all time with the exact same team returning behind the camera as did that first masterpiece. Still, it didn't even get to $85m OW. I don't think SW7 has a snowflake's chance in hell of beating TA1's OW record. I think the same for it's chances of having the highest OW of 2015. None. Zilch, zero, nada. Ain't gonna happen. The statistics are so against this occuring that it's nearly impossible.
 
Considering the reaction to certain things in the film, I think its legs aren't going to be great. I loved it, but I can see a bit of a backlash against some elements, like Widow.

I think Star Wars fans are vastly underestimating how the box office works in December. They just don't open as big there. It's a different dynamic. SW7, in order to get the OW record, would need to more than double the highest jump of a month's(ANY MONTH'S) OW from the previous one. The Avengers currently holds that record at $56m that it exceeded SM3's May OW by. Biggest jump in history. F7 over Cap2 came close with $52m recently but Avengers1 still holds that particular crown in it's trophy case along with all the others it still has.

Well SW7 would need to make around $123m more than Hobbit#1's OW to take the OW record. I don't think SW7 is more anticipated than the first Hobbit movie was when it came out. That also had a decade of hype and waiting building it up and was the next bit to arguably the greatest movie trilogy of all time with the exact same team returning behind the camera as did that first masterpiece. Still, it didn't even get to $85m OW. I don't think SW7 has a snowflake's chance in hell of beating TA1's OW record. I think the same for it's chances of having the highest OW of 2015. None. Zilch, zero, nada. Ain't gonna happen. The statistics are so against this occuring that it's nearly impossible.
You are wrong about that. But I agree, it won't get close to the opening weekend record. Not all time domestic and WW? Well, we will just have to see. :yay:
 
Marvel should also have a problem with Star Wars Episode VIII release date of May 26, 2017, is going to take part of the hype and BO away from GOTG 2 (May 5, 2017). SW is going to rule that summer easily if the new trilogy is as good as it seems.

On AOU, even if it makes less money than the first one, it will make more than enough to keep them satisfied. When future Avenger sequels drop down to 900m or less, which will happen sooner or later, then Disney and Marvel will not be as happy, till then...
Box office these days is a month long thing in the summer. Rarely is a movie making a high percentage of its money after 4 weeks.
 
Considering the reaction to certain things in the film, I think its legs aren't going to be great. I loved it, but I can see a bit of a backlash against some elements, like Widow.


You are wrong about that. But I agree, it won't get close to the opening weekend record. Not all time domestic and WW? Well, we will just have to see. :yay:

Gawd your negative! :o Over or under for you this weekend: $100M DOM.
 
Marvel should also have a problem with Star Wars Episode VIII release date of May 26, 2017, is going to take part of the hype and BO away from GOTG 2 (May 5, 2017). SW is going to rule that summer easily if the new trilogy is as good as it seems.

On AOU, even if it makes less money than the first one, it will make more than enough to keep them satisfied. When future Avenger sequels drop down to 900m or less, which will happen sooner or later, then Disney and Marvel will not be as happy, till then...

SW has it's work cut out for them if it wants to overtake the goodwill/WOM that GotG got. I'd have to say the odds of it hitting as hard as GotG did are rather on the slim side. I'd say that for any movie really. The kind of WOM GotG got only comes along maybe once or twice a year among movies(out of however many hundreds get made each year). And I say that as someone who didn't love the movie. I only casually liked it. But I can recognize when everyone else seemed to go gaga over it.
 
You are wrong about that. But I agree, it won't get close to the opening weekend record. Not all time domestic and WW? Well, we will just have to see. :yay:

I don't see how. Both had a decade of absence to build up demand. LOTR had phenominal goodwill attached to it as would any continuation of that mythos. SW is coming off the hated prequels which tarnished the brand heavily but is mitigated somewhat by the original cast returning.

I'd say they're on even footing among the general audience in terms of anticipation prior to release.
 
SW has it's work cut out for them if it wants to overtake the goodwill/WOM that GotG got. I'd have to say the odds of it hitting as hard as GotG did are rather on the slim side. I'd say that for any movie really. The kind of WOM GotG got only comes along maybe once or twice a year among movies(out of however many hundreds get made each year). And I say that as someone who didn't love the movie. I only casually liked it. But I can recognize when everyone else seemed to go gaga over it.
Oh please, people love the new Star Wars trailer more then the entirety of GotG.

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Boom, a billion dollars in one frame.
 
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