Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]498401[/split]

 

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]479035[/split]

 

[8ulk]

We are still only assuming Spider-man will be in civil war

Actually its confirmed. Its 100% hapenning. Spidey is in Civil War.

The only unclear thing is his screen time. We already know Marvel Studios had 2 scripts one with Spidey and one with Black Panther filling his role.

After initial negotitations broke with Sony Marvel opted for the 2nd script but they finally came to a deal with Sony before they started production on Civil War so they can easily switched between scripts and even if they didnt they will at least write a cameo/tiny role for Spidey. My guess is they will fit him in somewhere in an extended cameo of shorts.

He is definately in. And they is always the chance they use the script with him instead of Black Panther and use the later in a supporting or cameo role.

 

[JB33]

Weekend box office update:

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice 11m11 minutes ago
AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON took in $38.86M this weekend. Domestic total stands at $372.03M. #Avengers #AgeOfUltron

So, despite the fact it had to contend with 2 new big releases this weekened, AoU still managed the 5th best third weekend of all time. This would have been a good achievement for AoU WITHOUT the release of Pitch Perfect 2 and Mad Max: Fury Road.

 

[Mysteryman]

How much does MMFR have to make to turn a profit?

 

[JKKS085]

How much does MMFR have to make to turn a profit?

Assuming it makes 365M WW (135M DOM + 230M OS) it should make its production budget back (although I can see it gross closer to 150M dom with the good wom).
Given the circumstances of the production and the inflated pb its unlikely to break even in theaters once you factor in P&A costs.

However given its critical reception, and the cult the film is slowly gaining (because it's frankly awesome) it should turn a very decent profit once it hits the home video market which is pretty much all that matters in the current landscape of overfunded blockbusters.

 

[Tymminator]

I'm going to see Mad Max this Wednesday.

 

[8ulk]

Mad Max FR needs 300 mil WW to break even.

Blu Ray & DVD run will cover the marketing costs.

If it makes 400+ WW it will make a nice small profit and probably a sequel will be greenlit.

350-375 mil WW will be meh.

 

[Wildcard]

^ Sounds about right. Given that its opening numbers were bigger than what was originally being projected, I think $400 million could be likely. It'll need to have strong legs, though.

 

[JKKS085]

^ it's not. You can't throw out a figure like this and say a movie would break even without making a distinction between the domestic and os take as studios do not get as much from os markets as they get domestically.

For instance if the film makes 300M WW, 200 dom + 100 os, that's very roughly 140M for the studio.
If it makes 300M WW but 100M dom + 200 os, that's only 115M for the studio (still a rough calculation).

Those are two different scenarios with the same WW total. Would be nice for a change to see people just drop the idea that a movie breaks even when it makes twice its production budget. At the curent state of box office, with the evergrowing share of OS markets (and especially China) it's just not true anymore.

 

[warriorking]

^ Sounds about right. Given that its opening numbers were bigger than what was originally being projected, I think $400 million could be likely. It'll need to have strong legs, though.

Agreed...
Overseas attendance will probably save this movie, here in the states I look for it to drop quickly....
I liked the movie but I have no desire to run off and see it again...
Tomorrow land and PP2 will dominate this weekend MMFR will be a distant Third....AOU will pull in another 25Million...
It will break the 400 Million mark possibly by Saturday...

 

[KBX]

So whats the final WW box office for this movie looking like now?

 

[rashad]

$1.45 billion I'm guessing.

 

[JB33]

Monday Box Office:

BoxOffice @BoxOffice · 2h 2 hours ago
AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON took in $3.44M on Monday. Domestic total stands at $375.47M. #Avengers #AgeOfUltron

Domestic: $375,466,255
Overseas: $770,500,000
Total: $1,145,966,255

 

[Tony Stark]

Anyone know how far behind FF7 overseas numbers it is to this point?

 

[Iceman]

Would be hard to say with the overseas markets all staggered differently.

 

[rashad]

Anyone know how far behind FF7 overseas numbers it is to this point?

Furious 7 - $1,145,000,000

I don't think AOU is going to top it's foreign gross. Japan is the only market left and that's in July.

 

[Bruce Malone]

FF7's foreign gross is staggering. Even if you didn't count the North American receipts at all, it would still be one of the highest grossing movies of all-time.

Somewhere the team behind the Need for Speed movie are wondering where they went wrong?

 

[warriorking]

AOU still has a chance to top FF7, remember its only been in China since last Tuesday and has only had one official full weekend so far, also it still has legs here in the US as well as abroad, it will surpass 400 Million by this weekend....

 

[take3]

no one is gonna top the FF7 numbers for a long time, these are incredible

 

[def28]

Have you seen the line up of films for the next two years? I really don't think it's gonna be that long before a few match it.

 

[Wildcard]

^ Haha funny thing is those numbers will likely be surpassed later this year or next year.

 

[spider-neil]

Actually its confirmed. Its 100% hapenning. Spidey is in Civil War.

Spider-Man in CW is not confirmed, and if it is confirmed post the article.

 

[drod1985]

It's not 100% confirmed via article or press release, but I believe RDJ alluded to it happening in a recent interview. Again no official confirmation, but just entertaining the idea via the interview seems to imply that it's happening.

 

[spider-neil]

It's not 100% confirmed via article or press release, but I believe RDJ alluded to it happening in a recent interview. Again no official confirmation, but just entertaining the idea via the interview seems to imply that it's happening.

So it's not confirmed. I'm not saying he wont be in CW but it isn't confirmed.