Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[rashad]

That was released in 3D on international markets.
Not that it isn't an amazing performance all around (because it definitely is) but 3D played a major part in its success overseas.

It doubt it was that major compared to the 2D share.

 

[Wildcard]

Should we be looking at $1.3-$1.4 billion by the end of this weekend or what?

 

[JKKS085]

It doubt it was that major compared to the 2D share.

Doubt it all you want as I don't have any data to elaborate on that.
However we should stop labelling FF7 as a 2D only film such as TDK, Hunger Games or Skyfall because Universal released it in 3D outside of north america which gave it a boost overseas.

 

[JB33]

BoxOffice.com predicts a $20.1M 3 day weekend for AoU - which would bring it to $403.27M domestically - and a $25.7M 4 day weekend - which would bring it to $408.87M domestically, basically Iron Man 3's domestic total.

The movie is doing fine overall at the box office, I just can't get over the fact that I really thought it would be even more of a juggernaut here in North America. This weekend is a tough one, though. Loads of competition between the new releases - Tomorrowland and Poltergeist - last week's popular releases - Pitch Perfect 2 and Mad Max: Fury Road - and of course Avengers: Age of Ultron.

 

[Docker2.0]

I still think that first weekend was what hurt its box office. Between the Mayweather fight, nba playoffs, Kentucky derby(I believe)all happening, its a wonder it made almost $200M OW DOM.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Over two bills in China:

@ChinaBoxOffice: #ChinaBoxOffice #Avengers2 takes est $12.9M on Sat, total $201.4M, now #5 all-time behind Lost in Thailand, Avatar, Transformers 4, and F7

But looks like it's quickly run out of steam there, too. It's a question whether it gets to 250. Still, obviously not a bad number.

 

[Dark Raven]

I still think that first weekend was what hurt its box office. Between the Mayweather fight, nba playoffs, Kentucky derby(I believe)all happening, its a wonder it made almost $200M OW DOM.

Didn't Marvel see that all these things would be out on that weekend? Why did they schedule their movie for that date then? Did they underestimate the attraction these other things would have on audiences and overestimate how much pulling power the Avengers sequel would have based on the first?

 

[Iceman]

The fight date was announced later.

 

[Superhero 101]

i think the WOM was a big factor as well

 

[Dark Raven]

I don't think it's going to overtake Frozen. It would be lucky to overtake Iron Man 3. I think it will probably settle around 7 or 8 on the all time high list, and probably won't even stay in the top 10 for very long.

 

[8ulk]

^^ In reality overtaking Frozen 1,27 bil WW is a 100% LOCK. A huge one actually.

In order to fail it will need MONSTEROUS drops which would make a world record.

AoU is only in its 4th weekend of release. It will definately make more than 1,27 bil.

Not only that im pretty sure it will overtake HP7 pt2 1,34 bil and reach 1,4 bil.

It has 50 mil left in US
25-50 left in China
Japan doesnt open until June
plus the rest of OS will add at least 50 mil.

In other words it has another 150-250 mil WW by the time it ends its run.

1,3 bil is the bare minium right now based on educated projections and 1,45 bil is the best it could make.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

^^ In reality overtaking Frozen 1,27 bil WW is a 100% LOCK. A huge one actually.

In order to fail it will need MONSTEROUS drops which would make a world record.

AoU is only in its 4th weekend of release. It will definately make more than 1,27 bil.

Not only that im pretty sure it will overtake HP7 pt2 1,34 bil and reach 1,4 bil.

It has 50 mil left in US
25-50 left in China
Japan doesnt open until June
plus the rest of OS will add at least 50 mil.

In other words it has another 150-250 mil WW by the time it ends its run.

1,3 bil is the bare minium right now based on educated projections and 1,45 bil is the best it could make.

1.5 is a lock.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I'm still surprised at how much AoU is actually struggling to get to TA1's total, considering the growth of overseas markets and the brand name of Marvel. I think the lukewarm WOM, lost novelty factor from the first one, increased competition compared to 2012, and Marvel announcing its full Phase 3 slate took the wind out of AoU's sails. I wonder if TA1 is the high point of the CBM genre that won't be topped unless the right combination of factors happens again.

 

[Lilbaz]

I voted for about £1.4bn. The novelty was gone but still fantastic numbers.

 

[Iceman]

Will take a while for it to get topped domestically at least. (edit to webfoot)

 

[8ulk]

I'm still surprised at how much AoU is actually struggling to get to TA1's total, considering the growth of overseas markets and the brand name of Marvel..

There is no OS growth any more. It reach its peak a few years ago.

The only market OS that keeps growing at an alarming rate is China.

my opinion is now that we should count China as a thing of its own.

US
China
OS

instead of US & OS.

 

[8ulk]

1.5 is a lock.

Its not a lock anymore. China is collapsing fast.It will not gross more than 250 mil there so 1,42-1,47 bil WW should be the ceiling .

But ofc we can still hope.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

I'm still surprised at how much AoU is actually struggling to get to TA1's total, considering the growth of overseas markets and the brand name of Marvel. I think the lukewarm WOM, lost novelty factor from the first one, increased competition compared to 2012, and Marvel announcing its full Phase 3 slate took the wind out of AoU's sails. I wonder if TA1 is the high point of the CBM genre that won't be topped unless the right combination of factors happens again.

Those other factors are seven intotal.

Unite the seven.

 

[Zoom]

1.5 is a lock.

No, it isn't. Even 1.4 is not a lock.

 

[armyofrobots]

why isn't Ultron making as much as everybody thought?

It's simple: we kill the Bat..no sorry.

It's not as good as the first. And the word of mouth just isn't as strong. Doesn't make it BAD, it's just not as good as first.

I mean, did anybody really...REALLY expect it to do $2billion? Come on. That's nonsense. That's just wishful thinking without any kind of reasoning behind it.

It's doing well, everybody is happy.

Ant-Man though? Woof. Ant-Man is going to not do well, me thinks.

 

[dalonewolf]

why isn't Ultron making as much as everybody thought?

It's simple: we kill the Bat..no sorry.

It's not as good as the first. And the word of mouth just isn't as strong. Doesn't make it BAD, it's just not as good as first.

I mean, did anybody really...REALLY expect it to do $2billion? Come on. That's nonsense. That's just wishful thinking without any kind of reasoning behind it.

It's doing well, everybody is happy.

Ant-Man though? Woof. Ant-Man is going to not do well, me thinks.

As long as Ant-man make 450-500 mil that will still be great
But I personally think it will do no less than 600 mil just the marvel hype will get it that

 

[armyofrobots]

As long as Ant-man make 450-500 mil that will still be great
But I personally think it will do no less than 600 mil just the marvel hype will get it that

Ant-Man will be lucky if it makes $250million

 

[dalonewolf]

Ant-Man will be lucky if it makes $250million

Are you serious??? it will have a 45+ o.w in the u.s and possibly more than that.
Maybe 60+

 

[KangConquers]

I think $1.5 B is still not out of the question.

 

[Raiden]

I think $1.5 B is still not out of the question.

Yeah, I think there's still some gas left in the tank to reach 1.5 bil.