The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[spiderman2]

So what? It wouldn't be the first time people's projections were wrong and it won't be the last.

I am just saying that I think the movie fell off faster then most people thought it would. From weekend 1 to weekend 2 and from like weekend 2 to 3 was like a 40% drop. Weekend 3 to 4 was more like a 55%-60 drop. So my point is I don't think people had to crazy of expectations and because it fell off a little faster then people thought it would people are wondering if the video release date thing may have been why. Yeah it may not be why but I can understand if people maybe fell like it made a differences and has a result maybe fell a little disappointed or something. But I think it also speaks to just how high the expectations are for a star wars movie in the first place.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I am just saying that I think the movie fell off faster then most people thought it would. From weekend 1 to weekend 2 and from like weekend 2 to 3 was like a 40% drop. Weekend 3 to 4 was more like a 55%-60 drop. So my point is I don't think people had to crazy of expectations and because it fell off a little faster then people thought it would people are wondering if the video release date thing may have been why. Yeah it may not be why but I can understand if people maybe fell like it made a differences and has a result maybe fell a little disappointed or something. But I think it also speaks to just how high the expectations are for a star wars movie in the first place.

I have to come out and just get this off of my chest. I think some people were letting the hype get to them to the point where they see these terrific numbers as disappointing. And I knew this would happen once we saw people saying that it was probably going to beat Avatar. The truth is Avatar grossed 2.8 billion worldwide, that is not an easy number to hit. TFA was never a lock to hit that number. Yes the film did go under what people thought it could do after it opened but that's not the film's fault that is the people who jumped the gun's fault. And I'm not entirely excising myself from that group. At all. Regarding only the domestic numbers; It is the highest grossing film in north america, who cares that it won't hit a billion? No film this year will hit a billion domestically either, no film has ever hit 1 billion domestically. Were Avenger's, Jurassic World and Avatar's numbers disappointing because they didn't hit one billion?

 

[Sithborg]

People were expecting more smaller, more traditional winter drops, even though Star Wars operated more like a summer blockbuster. Really, this was uncharted territory.

And it still did amazing. A bunch of records that are not going to be touched for quite some time (sorry Cap and BvS fans).

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

All of the movies that had those smaller traditional drops of course didn't open with 249.3 million.

See this is what I dislike about this period. Everything is seen as a disappointment if it doesn't hit some unrealistically high numbers.

 

[writer0327]

Totally not disappointed in TFA's box office numbers, I was just spit-balling as to if the blu-ray date had any affect on the overall box-office. If it didn't, fair enough, just curious. Seems like releasing to blu-ray so soon after a release (3-4 months) would hamper box office numbers. Anyone know why this has become the trend lately?

 

[Wildcard]

I'm certainly not disappointed either, even with the drops considering the film is still holding up fairly strong & we have a ways to go. But we have to also remember most don't understand the logistics like we do here so it's kind of expected for them to take such a novice approach to the subject.

I, on the other hand, am sitting back and patiently awaiting the announcement that TFA has (officially) dethroned Titanic globally.

 

[DarknessOfDeath]

Me neither. I mean the movie did quite well giving the hype and all. To me though, box office, doesn't really mean much to me these days now. I am just in a way glad to see Star Wars doing what it does best...goes to show of what's waiting around the corner over the next 4 years.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It is already the third highest grossing film of all time, on its way to being the third film to gross 2bil. The second to do it in one run. It did more then quite well. It has done very well. Quite well is not very well, and thus I am satisfied.

And if anyone can get the bit I was referencing there at the end, you have my eternal devotion.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It is already the third highest grossing film of all time, on its way to being the third film to gross 2bil. The second to do it in one run. It did more then quite well. It has done very well. Quite well is not very well, and thus I am satisfied.

And if anyone can get the bit I was referencing there at the end, you have my eternal devotion.

New avatar baby?

 

[DarknessOfDeath]

Uh...you weren't poking fun at me, were you? lols. Hey, if I am satisfied with TFA then what else could go wrong for star wars? eh? Everyone involved put a lot of effort into making this film happen. And it shows

 

[spiderman2]

Totally not disappointed in TFA's box office numbers, I was just spit-balling as to if the blu-ray date had any affect on the overall box-office. If it didn't, fair enough, just curious. Seems like releasing to blu-ray so soon after a release (3-4 months) would hamper box office numbers. Anyone know why this has become the trend lately?

I am not sure but like I said I can remember when it took like a year for movies to come out on video.

I have to come out and just get this off of my chest. I think some people were letting the hype get to them to the point where they see these terrific numbers as disappointing. And I knew this would happen once we saw people saying that it was probably going to beat Avatar. The truth is Avatar grossed 2.8 billion worldwide, that is not an easy number to hit. TFA was never a lock to hit that number. Yes the film did go under what people thought it could do after it opened but that's not the film's fault that is the people who jumped the gun's fault. And I'm not entirely excising myself from that group. At all. Regarding only the domestic numbers; It is the highest grossing film in north america, who cares that it won't hit a billion? No film this year will hit a billion domestically either, no film has ever hit 1 billion domestically. Were Avenger's, Jurassic World and Avatar's numbers disappointing because they didn't hit one billion?

While before the movie came out I didn't even think the movie was going to hit even 1 billion because of how bad the prequles where lol. I also was nervours that the movie would suck. When I end up seeing the movie and liked it and end up loving it after the second time and saw how much it made OW and even how much it made 2nd weekend and 3erd weekend I then thought it was going to not only do much better then I first though but that it would also pass titainic and maybe challenge avatar. I saw something about how most movies after weekend 3 tend to then make 3 times that much the rest of the time. So like with this movie weekend 3 the movie made 90m so that would mean it should have had 270m left at that time. At that time the movie was at 740m so 270 more would mean 1.010 billion. Now it looks like it may only get to say 950m. So that is what I mean by failing off faster then people thought it would. So when it was sounding like the movie had a real shoot at 1 billion USA that made my more hyped and 1 billion just sounds like a nice round number lol. But yeah I knew it would be hard to catch avatar because heck the number 1 to number 2 movie has like a 600m gap. So that shows just how hard it is to make what avatar made.

 

[Marvolo]

Really I thought the movie had been out for like 2 weeks when that rumor started. While I remember it used to take like a year for movies to go from theater to DVD and now it fells like it is more like 4-5 months. Amazing spider man 2 was the first movie I had ever heard of before coming out less then 4 months from theater to dvd/bluray but it also didn't do that great like this movie. Another then that I had never heard of a movie coming out in less then 4 months. I think that may be starting to change though has the newest bond is only about 3 months and I think there are a few other more new movies that are doing something like that including those you said. I wonder if that is the fastest they will ever do that because if it gets to much faster then that people may just stop going to the movies and want for the movie to come out on video. I already hear people say with movies I will just want for Netflix or redbox it ect.


While about the keven hart movie it sounds like star wars is going to be 3erd this weekend so even if that movie didn't make star wars not number one this weekend the Ledeornod movie would have made it not number one any way.

It's going to get much shorter.

Paramount Pictures has struck a deal with two major cinema chains to make new movies available to watch at home just two weeks after they leave most theaters.

The new arrangement will begin with two smaller films, but the Viacom Inc.-owned studio hopes to continue with the strategy, potentially changing the calculus of movie distribution for studios and exhibitors alike.

More info at the link:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/paramount-to-break-hollywoods-home-video-window-1436377631

The Journal says that Paramount has made deals for two movies right now and with only two theater chains. They're two of the biggest chains, however: AMC and Cineplex. That they're willing to sign on suggests that Paramount has worked this out in an appealing way, but the studio will have to get the other major chains to sign on if it wants to extend this practice to big-budget films, like Transformers, as the Journal says it intends to. Paramount has reportedly only spoken to those two chains so far, but it intends to offer the same deal to others.

SMALL DISTRIBUTORS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MOVING UP HOME RELEASES

The two films that Paramount will start this process with are Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension and Scout’s Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse. These are both low-budget films, and it makes sense to test this new model on them. They're likely to have a smaller audience at the box office, so quickly turning around and marketing on demand sales could help boost their viewership. Larger films also run in theaters longer, so shortening the window may not have as much of an impact — in fact, in some instances, the shorter window may not be noticeable at all.

Paramount's plan to shorten the release window is big so far as big studios and big movies go, but it isn't entirely unprecedented. That's especially true when looking at its first two films. Indie distributors have already been releasing movies in theaters and on demand with only a small gap between them, if not simultaneously. It's essentially the same model, but possibly even more helpful since those distributors don't have the marketing budgets to create the same type of buzz that Paramount can.

That makes this move a step toward simultaneous theatrical and on demand releases, but only a small one. Studios are becoming more aware of how people want to watch movies — and with the money that studios are throwing behind their films, they need to do everything that they can to make sure people are interested and able to pay.

http://www.theverge.com/2015/7/8/8914439/paramount-shortening-theatrical-release-window

They are doing this because theaters begin to drop films after a month or two. By the end of the second month some films are only playing in a hundred theaters or so compared to the thousands it had when it first opened. If the studio then waits another month or two to release it on home video that's about 40-60 days that the studio is making a lot less profit. So the studios want to release the films onto home streaming services faster to try to lessen that time when the film is making significantly less profit in theaters.

 

[spiderman2]

Me neither. I mean the movie did quite well giving the hype and all. To me though, box office, doesn't really mean much to me these days now. I am just in a way glad to see Star Wars doing what it does best...goes to show of what's waiting around the corner over the next 4 years.

Even though I wanted the movie to do even more really I am just glad to have a star wars movie that is great again and that makes the prequles a little easier to get over.

It is already the third highest grossing film of all time, on its way to being the third film to gross 2bil. The second to do it in one run. It did more then quite well. It has done very well. Quite well is not very well, and thus I am satisfied.

And if anyone can get the bit I was referencing there at the end, you have my eternal devotion.

Yeah hopefully episode 8 can do at least 2 billion to. I know people think that the next one will make less at least USA wise but I still think it could make 2 billion WW to. Let me put it this way episode 7 is going to most likely finish around 2.1 billion. Now even if episode 7 drops by 200m USA that would still be 1.9 billion and I think the next one could make more in china then this one did. Also even if the next movie does drop some USA I don't think it dropes more then 100m in less the movie ends up being a lot worse then this one. Nice avatar by the way!

 

[spiderman2]

I also have to say about thinking the movie might make even more that I am not great at this stuff. I mean I know that movies tend to make less the longer they have been out but I don't really now how much and how fast movies drop and how long they tend to stay in theaters. An example of how long they stay in theaters is I think I heard people say that avatar took like 150 days or something to make all of its money but that is like 5 months and out side of frozen I have never seen a movie in theaters for longer then like 2 months where I live and most movies are in theaters for around 1.5 months where I live with some being only like 1 month. Also at one point in time with the way things where going I thought JW was going to make 2 billion and yet it only end at about 1.68 billion. So I was like 322m off lol.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

New avatar baby?

Yep. I patiently await the end of my least favorite prequel character not actually in the prequels. At the hands of my namesake no less.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Uh...you weren't poking fun at me, were you? lols. Hey, if I am satisfied with TFA then what else could go wrong for star wars? eh? Everyone involved put a lot of effort into making this film happen. And it shows

It is a film reference. One of my favorite films. I couldn't help myself, I rarely get a chance to use it.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yep. I patiently await the end of my least favorite prequel character not actually in the prequels. At the hands of my namesake no less.

You are waiting for a character to die.

 

[spiderman2]

It's going to get much shorter.







They are doing this because theaters begin to drop films after a month or two. By the end of the second month some films are only playing in a hundred theaters or so compared to the thousands it had when it first opened. If the studio then waits another month or two to release it on home video that's about 40-60 days that the studio is making a lot less profit. So the studios want to release the films onto home streaming services faster to try to lessen that time when the film is making significantly less profit in theaters.

Wow it said something like 2 weeks in the article. But how does it work finacly if movies are in theaters for a shorter and shorter time? What is the benefit to people buying or renting movies compared to paying 10 or so to go to the movies? Why did movies used to stay in theaters longer? Wouldn't movies continuing to make more money for a longer time if they stayed in theaters for a longer time? Isn't part of the reason that movies pull movies from theaters after only like a month or so because people are wanting for it to come out on video? If people had to want longer like the old days wouldn't movies continue to make money much longer then a month? Really this just confuses me and makes me want to ask more questions. At some point are movie theaters not even going to be a thing any more? You have thoughts about all of this?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

You are waiting for a character to die.

My arch-nemesis:

At the hands of my boy:

This goes back to TCW show. I have been waiting for this day for like 8 years. I fully admit this is petty. I just don't care.

 

[Marvolo]

Yep. I patiently await the end of my least favorite prequel character not actually in the prequels. At the hands of my namesake no less.

If she dies I hope she comes back as a force ghost and kicks even more ass just to piss you off.

 

[Snow Queen]

If she dies I hope she comes back as a force ghost and kicks even more ass just to piss you off.

And then it's revealed she's been operating a hologram from beyond the grave to control the First Order and finish her old master's work after having a change of heart and agreeing with him.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

If she dies I hope she comes back as a force ghost and kicks even more ass just to piss you off.

And then it's revealed she's been operating a hologram from beyond the grave to control the First Order and finish her old master's work after having a change of heart and agreeing with him.

 

[flickchick85]

It is already the third highest grossing film of all time, on its way to being the third film to gross 2bil. The second to do it in one run. It did more then quite well. It has done very well. Quite well is not very well, and thus I am satisfied.

And if anyone can get the bit I was referencing there at the end, you have my eternal devotion.

Of course it could only be Pride and Prejudice with you.

 

[PacificBoy]

It is sorta weird how the Chinese are reacting to this when Monster Hunt (maybe due to jingoism) and Transformers were such big critic proof hits.

I also think that Transformers because what it became after each sequel. So by part 4, it was an accepted franchise. So by Rogue One and Episode 8 they'll ease in a bit. Keep in mind that they probably see Stsr Wars as this weird franchise that barely got into their radar when the OT got released last summer.

If you have watched Monster Hunt you'd know it's not worth being jingoistic about. Silly plot, over the top humour, spotty CGI. It wouldn't travel well outside of China and should bomb comfortably in the states.

Chinese audiences were simply more entertained by something close to home with its wuxia, ancient China setting, local brand of humour and cute creatures. (Also, it probably didn't do as well as publicised with the authorities allegedly cooking the books.) Transformers, as you said, is a made franchise there and has the nostalgic factor from the Hasbro cartoons and toys.

Have to remember that foreign films are subtitled for the most part, and if you're there to be entertained than to appreciate film, TFA, with its less self-contained elements, is a harder movie to get behind and enjoy.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Of course it could only be Pride and Prejudice with you.