Honestly, if TDK doesn't perform well, it's the fault of the marketing department.
I say this, because when I see the Iron Man trailer, the official Indy website with video blogs, the Hellboy 2 website... these are all movies coming out within a month 1/2 of each other... and they've got the people aware.
Hell, you're right. Most of my friends are more excited about Iron Man... and that's sad... that's because they've actually been SHOWN something.
And how sad is it that a movie like "Cloverfield", which is supposedly the best-kept secret in hollywood history, actually has a trailer with actual footage in it??
I'm not trying to be an ass.... I can't wait for TDK, and it's my most anticipated movie of 2008... but if this movie only belongs to us, the fans, and it doesn't perform well... I'm afraid we won't get a 3rd movie. I'm actually scared about that.
Get a grip, dude. Seriously.
Iron Man is something new, something people have never seen before. The trailer was wicked, and it's got people talking. Good for Favreau, the movie looks like it'll rock.
Movies like Batman sequels, much like Harry Potter sequels, are more "expected" than "anticipated" (for lack of a better comparison). I don't mean this in a negative way, I can't explain it that well. What I mean is - there won't be as much talk about it so far from it's release date. People know it's coming, even if it's subconscious. They've known since the last scene of
Batman Begins.
And
Cloverfield, while it'll probably be a pretty good movie...is more hype than anything. And even THAT has died down. It's viral marketing has been pretty much overshadowed by TDK's in geek circles, and the rest of the public has forgotten about it since the short period of buzz following
Transformers. The new trailer with
Beowulf will intrigue people again, like anything new does.
There is a built in audience for Batman. Always will be. Technically, WB doesn't need to let people know the movie even exists until a week before it's release, and people would still come out in droves. It may not be
Pirates, but that's a freak occurance. It's also got a tremendous amount of goodwill on it's side after pretty much everyone liked
Begins (after going into it cautiously post-B&R). Add the Joker to that, and the element of "newness" to it given it's darker, more chaotic edge, and you have a winner.
The thing you really have to worry about concerning a third movie is the effect of
Justice League. The whole debacle already seems to be wearing on Nolan's patience.