Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[robot]

The weak marketing OS makes it a hard call on the OS box. SR made 180 million or so OS. Since then ticket prices are up, more venues and more 3D. That should guarantee based on 180 7 years ago 240/250 this go. Nolan and Snyder and hopefully good WOM should have an impact maybe upping it another 50 million. We have to keep our fingers crossed it does 300 million OS. Anything less will be a big problem for WB IMO.

I have been following box office numbers for OS for over a decade now... seeing how it grows and grows... and I have seen that if a movie has great action, script, or generally very good, then with a bit of marketing to get the word out, it'll easily hit 500 million, and if MOS is as good as we're all expecting it to be, I think it can easily hit 600-700 OS (on the assumption that marketing was done).

But if they can't even put up posters, then you may be right... most people won't even know a good movie is showing. Only people who happened to be at the cinema may go watch it...

I am so frustrated with the lack of OS marketing because I feel like I have a stake in my favorite superhero, and WB is disrespecting their OS fans...

 

[Juha Bach]

Long time lurker, first time poster. The overseas marketing has not been non existent as some of you would like others to believe. WB is using the same formula they did with TDKR. I have been in Nairobi Kenya for the past 2 months for work purposes, so much so that i even watched Iron Man 3 in imax(Was greatly surprised to see that they have one), anyway when you enter the building you see several man of steel posters, i also saw the trailer 3 while watching IM3 and the awareness for the movie is great. So if a small country in africa is getting marketing what makes some think that WB are doing close to nothing in asia? Oh and the execs are quite happy with man of steel. Go read a variety article on WB squabbles, where Robinov claims that MoS will be the biggest WB movie ever.
Here is a link:http://variety.com/2013/film/news/w...s-future-at-warner-bros-exclusive-1200483194/

 

[robot]

Long time lurker, first time poster. The overseas marketing has not been non existent as some of you would like others to believe. WB is using the same formula they did with TDKR. I have been in Nairobi Kenya for the past 2 months for work purposes, so much so that i even watched Iron Man 3 in imax(Was greatly surprised to see that they have one), anyway when you enter the building you see several man of steel posters, i also saw the trailer 3 while watching IM3 and the awareness for the movie is great. So if a small country in africa is getting marketing what makes some think that WB are doing close to nothing in asia? Oh and the execs are quite happy with man of steel. Go read a variety article on WB squabbles, where Robinov claims that MoS will be the biggest WB movie ever.
Here is a link:http://variety.com/2013/film/news/w...s-future-at-warner-bros-exclusive-1200483194/

Great to hear that Juha,

In Malaysia, zero on MOS.. nothing... not even a movie poster... I think this is the same in other Asian countries.. at least my friends are telling me... would be great if people can post about their respective countries

 

[DKDetective]

Long time lurker, first time poster. The overseas marketing has not been non existent as some of you would like others to believe. WB is using the same formula they did with TDKR. I have been in Nairobi Kenya for the past 2 months for work purposes, so much so that i even watched Iron Man 3 in imax(Was greatly surprised to see that they have one), anyway when you enter the building you see several man of steel posters, i also saw the trailer 3 while watching IM3 and the awareness for the movie is great. So if a small country in africa is getting marketing what makes some think that WB are doing close to nothing in asia? Oh and the execs are quite happy with man of steel. Go read a variety article on WB squabbles, where Robinov claims that MoS will be the biggest WB movie ever.
Here is a link:http://variety.com/2013/film/news/w...s-future-at-warner-bros-exclusive-1200483194/

Precisely, someone speaks sense. Robinov would not have said anything like that unless he had a lot to back him up. As an officer of a publicly traded company, he has a legal duty not to make fraudulent or negligent misrepresentations to the public that could artificially inflate the price of the company's stock and thus cause damage when the representation is revealed to be false or misleading and the price plummets. Those sort of cases often give rise to shareholder class actions.

 

[Tobias]

Great to hear that Juha,

In Malaysia, zero on MOS.. nothing... not even a movie poster... I think this is the same in other Asian countries.. at least my friends are telling me... would be great if people can post about their respective countries

It's uneven it seems. There is some marketing in the UK or so some have said. Maybe because it's Henry's home country. Europe has been spotty. Asia seems to be getting the least marketing. Not sure about S. America.

 

[king666]

Don't know if anyone has posted this yet:

http://www.boxoffice.com/articles/2013-05-social-network-futures-man-of-steel-for-522-or-523

 

[Juha Bach]

Great to hear that Juha,

In Malaysia, zero on MOS.. nothing... not even a movie poster... I think this is the same in other Asian countries.. at least my friends are telling me... would be great if people can post about their respective countries

You want to tell us that there is not even one poster in all of the asian continent?

 

[robot]

You want to tell us that there is not even one poster in all of the asian continent?

Well, I live in the biggest city in malaysia, and been to several of the biggest theaters in the malls here.. nothing...

plus, unless you're a superman fan, no one here knows Man of Steel exist...

Can't be 100% sure of other asian countries, but have cousins living in Singapore and friends in HK and Indonesia... and China... no big news there yet... and it's 3 weeks out.. for most movies that are going to play here, they'll at least have posters at the cinemas... even small budget ones... not sure why this is happening...

 

[Juha Bach]

Well, I live in the biggest city in malaysia, and been to several of the biggest theaters in the malls here.. nothing...

plus, unless you're a superman fan, no one here knows Man of Steel exist...

Can't be 100% sure of other asian countries, but have cousins living in Singapore and friends in HK and Indonesia... and China... no big news there yet... and it's 3 weeks out.. for most movies that are going to play here, they'll at least have posters at the cinemas... even small budget ones... not sure why this is happening...

Well thats negligent if its true. I know china and japan are exceptions coz of their far release dates. They should pick up the pace soon in your country.
In uk sales seem to be going well for the opening weekend, with three weeks to go. BFI imax has 2 friday showings that are already sold out with Sat at 1725, 2025, and sunday 1400 and 1725 90% booked.

 

[robot]

Well thats negligent if its true. I know china and japan are exceptions coz of their far release dates. They should pick up the pace soon in your country.
In uk sales seem to be going well for the opening weekend, with three weeks to go. BFI imax has 2 friday showings that are already sold out with Sat at 1725, 2025, and sunday 1400 and 1725 90% booked.

I hope so... but it's already too late to do much here, since it's already 3 weeks out only... can't do billboards which reaches the most GA... the only thing they can do now is put up some trailers and posters (which is still not up btw).

Also, great to hear that in UK and a few other countries they are actually promoting it.. so it's not a full blanket failure...

 

[Tobias]

Well thats negligent if its true. I know china and japan are exceptions coz of their far release dates. They should pick up the pace soon in your country.
In uk sales seem to be going well for the opening weekend, with three weeks to go. BFI imax has 2 friday showings that are already sold out with Sat at 1725, 2025, and sunday 1400 and 1725 90% booked.

Is there a China release date?

Japan is late August as it was with SR. The not so great WOM by the time August rolled around made for a disappointing showing there for SR. There is something to be said for a wide release as Marvel does. Guess not so much so WB.

 

[mclay18]

I know WB will want a big post credit scene(it's a great maketing move), I know Nolan isn't really the type of producer that seems down. I'll be damned if I leave before the final credit rolls though. Here's hoping the post credit scene is more about the dcu than it is about Lex or Brainiac.

God, I hope not. I'm f****g sick of studios doing these post-credit scenes... it was refreshing to see fare like STID, X:FC, and TDKR not have them. I understand some people want to be respectful of the filmmakers, but now it's becoming a trend. (And some folks who stay behind in hopes of seeing one are disappointed when there's nothing after.) Even The Croods has one, for chrissakes.

Most of these scenes (I'm looking at you Marvel Studios!) aren't worth sitting through 7-8 minutes of technical credits. Not to mention WB tried that with Green Lantern, and it didn't secure a sequel.

 

[Juha Bach]

Is there a China release date?

Japan is late August as it was with SR. The not so great WOM by the time August rolled around made for a disappointing showing there for SR. There is something to be said for a wide release as Marvel does. Guess not so much so WB.

No release date. Could be same like japan.I dunno what beef WB has with china coz this is not the first time they have done this.

God, I hope not. I'm f****g sick of studios doing these post-credit scenes... it was refreshing to see fare like STID, X:FC, and TDKR not have them. I understand some people want to be respectful of the filmmakers, but now it's becoming a trend. (And some folks who stay behind in hopes of seeing one are disappointed when there's nothing after.) Even The Croods has one, for chrissakes.

Most of these scenes (I'm looking at you Marvel Studios!) aren't worth sitting through 7-8 minutes of technical credits. Not to mention WB tried that with Green Lantern, and it didn't secure a sequel.

I have never bothered to wait for post credit scenes.

 

[mclay18]

I have never bothered to wait for post credit scenes.

Yeah. If you love the movie anyway, you can fast-forward through the credits once the DVD/Blu-ray comes out.

 

[Micromind]

Great to hear that Juha,

In Malaysia, zero on MOS.. nothing... not even a movie poster... I think this is the same in other Asian countries.. at least my friends are telling me... would be great if people can post about their respective countries

I can tell you that there is nonexistent marketing in India and nearby region, no posters or trailers here, except for WB India Facebook page where they post banners, TV spots etc.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

I know WB will want a big post credit scene(it's a great maketing move), I know Nolan isn't really the type of producer that seems down. I'll be damned if I leave before the final credit rolls though. Here's hoping the post credit scene is more about the dcu than it is about Lex or Brainiac.

There have been those rumors, yes.

 

[Marvin]

God, I hope not. I'm f****g sick of studios doing these post-credit scenes... it was refreshing to see fare like STID, X:FC, and TDKR not have them. I understand some people want to be respectful of the filmmakers, but now it's becoming a trend. (And some folks who stay behind in hopes of seeing one are disappointed when there's nothing after.) Even The Croods has one, for chrissakes.

Most of these scenes (I'm looking at you Marvel Studios!) aren't worth sitting through 7-8 minutes of technical credits. Not to mention WB tried that with Green Lantern, and it didn't secure a sequel.

I personally skip the wait and just watch it on youtube later that week.

I agree, marvels assembly line mentality has shifted both the public's expectations and(thus) the other studios. That IM3 one was perhaps the most self indulgent one yet. However I have to speak in the here and now.
When WB does do one, I would rather they did it a certain way.

Kudo's to the few productions that have kept to their ideals if you will. Spidey/Xmen(not origins).
Everything GL was a total fail.

 

[Marvin]

Is there a China release date?

Japan is late August as it was with SR. The not so great WOM by the time August rolled around made for a disappointing showing there for SR. There is something to be said for a wide release as Marvel does. Guess not so much so WB.

Marvel loves using those wide release numbers to build momentum pre domestic release. There's nothing like promoting a movie by saying it's the number one movie in the world or it's already close to a billion in so and so days...
This really payed off on their last two but it helped the first Thor a great deal as well.

Even other wide releases such as Transformers 3 don't get the asian markets till later on.

WB really should have pushed for a mega wide release here. Superman, unlike ant man, is known everywhere imo.

 

[Tobias]

I can tell you that there is nonexistent marketing in India and nearby region, no posters or trailers here, except for WB India Facebook page where they post banners, TV spots etc.

All I can think is that SR did OK in Europe and Africa and so MOS is getting some promotion there. But did not do well in Asia - I know for sure Japan and SK were disappoints. Maybe WB is writing off the markets as sort of "lost" in terms of MOS doing well there. It's weird Asia seems excluded but there is some marketing in other OS markets. I know Superman is not popular in most Asian countries but thought he had some popularity in India. There have been fan-made Supes films from there.

 

[robot]

I can tell you that there is nonexistent marketing in India and nearby region, no posters or trailers here, except for WB India Facebook page where they post banners, TV spots etc.

This is sad indeed... I think most of the OS is completely ignored.. even very low budget movies have posters...

Warner Bros need to fire people.. and right away...(especially that guy at the top) This is not just pure stupidity (if tobias is right about them ignoring countries that did not do well for SR), but negligence and laziness to a whole new degree... You can at least supply posters to Cinemas right? or, build cardboard superman for Cinemas.. that would have a huge impact for little money...

 

[Micromind]

I think that WB marketing have miscalculated the popularity of Supeman, it is well known brand here even though the past movies have been given a mediocre response, SR faced some tough competition from POTC 2 and it was not as entertaining movie.

 

[robot]

I think that WB marketing have miscalculated the popularity of Supeman, it is well known brand here even though the past movies have been given a mediocre response, SR faced some tough competition from POTC 2 and it was not as entertaining movie.

Not mis-calculated.. pure ineptness.. even if you decide you don't want to promote a movie, providing posters is the least you can do...

 

[Micromind]

Yeah, they must be forgetting that Chris Nolan's name is a huge draw as all Nolan's movie (TDK, Inception, TDKR) have done great business here, so not promoting a Superman movie which has Nolan as producer is baffling.

Even Green Lantern had decent marketing here.

 

[presidentsaad]

Don't you think we're over-generalizing here a bit? Certainly, experiences from a very small amount of people can not equate to all of the market.

 

[Tobias]

Yeah, they must be forgetting that Chris Nolan's name is a huge draw as all Nolan's movie (TDK, Inception, TDKR) have done great business here, so not promoting a Superman movie which has Nolan as producer is baffling.

Even Green Lantern had decent marketing here.

Well, if MOS bombs OS and it is traced to a weak showing in Asia I suspect the marketing person who decided against marketing there will be in a heap of trouble.

It would be nice if someone managed to get to a WB marketing person and ask why no marketing in Asia? What was the thought behind that? Unfortunately I'd imagine WB would not give an answer.