Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Bruce Malone]

I have no problem with any of you guys/gals guessing low, its the trolls that come in and do it that bothers me...

Well speaking of "trolls" somewhat i still want to how many of the 11 ppl who voted for 1.5 billion are actually serious in that estimation?

Present yourselves!

 

[robot]

Well speaking of "trolls" somewhat i still want to how many of the 11 ppl who voted for 1.5 billion are actually serious in that estimation?

Present yourselves!

You never know... who would have predicted 2.7 Billion for Avatar? Or, 1.8 Billion for Titanic? Too early to call anyone out..

I sure wish it could hit 1.5 B... but it has to have all the elements to do that

- Big Love Story (that appeals to the ladies and they just have to re-watch it over and over again)

- Big Special Effects (for the Dudes)

- Great Script (to differentiate the good from the bad)

- Great Acting...

 

[Skrilla31]

Let's skip MOS for a moment and let's talk about the sequel.

You heard it here first about THREE years before it will ever see the light of day. The sequel to MOS will gross more money than The Avengers.

 

[routhman]

I have no problem with any of you guys/gals guessing low, its the trolls that come in and do it that bothers me...

$1. MOS will make $1, worldwide.

Really though, no clue how to even begin to estimate the numbers. I'd expect something stronger than BB, given that WOM has been really good for the film so far from the previews, and the entire global audience has been blitzed with superhero films over the last decade (so they're aware of them and not terribly dismissive, as maybe they were at the beginning). That said, I'd expect numbers at least similar to BB's numbers, since the movies are similar in principle and both released by WB.

So, conservatively, I'll say it makes 10% more than BB, and adjusting for inflation since 2005, that comes out to:

$478 million, worldwide

With better WOM than BB, though, I think we could see a 10-30% boost in the previous estimate, and the film could make up to

$622 million, worldwide

That said, I haven't even considered the effect of TDK trilogy's success and Nolan's involvement in the film. That could be the wildcard that shoots the movie past $700 million, given that the film receives good reviews.

Hold me to it. t: I know, I know -- quite the range -- but I think some of the variables aren't easily appraised.

 

[GreenKToo]

I know...the fanboy in me is screaming 700 mill+, but my head says around 625 mill.

 

[Sharkboy]

I know...the fanboy in me is screaming 700 mill+, but my head says around 625 mill.

700mil is doable. It just needs legs.

 

[JOE]

To do anything over 700M this movie needs to be as good as TDK or better. IMO.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

To do anything over 700M this movie needs to be as good as TDK or better. IMO.

No it doesn't. Too many Average/crap/kind of good movies make over that much money. People just need to tell their friends it is awesome...even if it isn't as good as TDK.

If you're right then there is a low chance of this movie getting $700 million. It would need another Heath Ledger type performance and an ending that blows the audience away. Very Rare.

 

[JOE]

You're not understanding what I'm saying. Iron Man 3 cleared 700M with ease, why? Because it's already built up. TDK was not built up when it made 1B, it made 1B because it was one of the best superhero movies of all time. It did it on it's own. MOS will have to do the same, it's not coming off a 1.5B movie.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

You're not understanding what I'm saying. Iron Man 3 cleared 700M with ease, why? Because it's already built up. TDK was not built up when it made 1B, it made 1B because it was one of the best superhero movies of all time. It did it on it's own. MOS will have to do the same, it's not coming off a 1.5B movie.

It has to be like TDK to get $1B not $700 million.

 

[JOE]

No. Iron man and Batman Begins were both two very solid reboots of huge franchises. They each led to enormous Blockbuster monsters in the future. But their first movies did 374M WW (Batman Begins) and 585M WW (Iron Man) and those two movies are considered in the top superhero movies of all time.

I'm expecting MOS to do the same (hopefully with a bit more WW) and then it's sequel come in a rake in the cash.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

No. Iron man and Batman Begins were both two very solid reboots of huge franchises. They each led to enormous Blockbuster monsters in the future. But their first movies did 374M WW (Batman Begins) and 585M WW (Iron Man) and those two movies are considered in the top superhero movies of all time.

I'm expecting MOS to do the same (hopefully with a bit more WW) and then it's sequel come in a rake in the cash.

A bit more?
This is sad.

 

[GreenKToo]

You're not understanding what I'm saying. Iron Man 3 cleared 700M with ease, why? Because it's already built up. TDK was not built up when it made 1B, it made 1B because it was one of the best superhero movies of all time. It did it on it's own. MOS will have to do the same, it's not coming off a 1.5B movie.

TDK had BB before it...the wom was really great for it. DvD sales through the roof. The hunger for a sequel was there.
MoS is a reboot. rarely, if ever??, does a reboot make 700 mill +.
I'm not saying it won't, but I will be surprised if MoS makes 700 mill +.
I hope it does tho.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

TDK had BB before it...the wom was really great for it. DvD sales through the roof. The hunger for a sequel was there.
MoS is a reboot. rarely, if ever??, does a reboot make 700 mill +.
I'm not saying it won't, but I will be surprised if MoS makes 700 mill +.
I hope it does tho.

If ever?
TASM dude and that had the same amount of trailer views as MOS and less anticipation.

 

[GreenKToo]

yeah..forgot about that..what did it make in the US?

EDIT: nevermind, found it..262 mill dom.

 

[JOE]

TDK had BB before it...the wom was really great for it. DvD sales through the roof. The hunger for a sequel was there.
MoS is a reboot. rarely, if ever??, does a reboot make 700 mill +.
I'm not saying it won't, but I will be surprised if MoS makes 700 mill +.
I hope it does tho.

If TDK was the first movie that came out I still think it would have made over 700M just because the fact it was that good. However, Batman Begins didn't even hit 400M because the reboot factor.

 

[GreenKToo]

If TDK was the first movie that came out I still think it would have made over 700M just because the fact it was that good. However, Batman Begins didn't even hit 400M because the reboot factor.

Loved TdK.

 

[JOE]

I don't think there will ever be a villain as good as the Joker in that movie. Heath ledger has immortal status.

 

[Marvin]

If TDK was the first movie that came out I still think it would have made over 700M just because the fact it was that good. However, Batman Begins didn't even hit 400M because the reboot factor.

I agree, if TDK came out first it may not have made the same amount as it did, but is sure as hell would have made more than BB did. A great deal more imo.

 

[Marvin]

I don't think there will ever be a villain as good as the Joker in that movie. Heath ledger has immortal status.

The real question is, how many other actors could have executed that role in an interesting way(including Oldman/Bale).

 

[sf2]

Also because the sequel r done good. IM2 is poor though

 

[mclay18]

Unfortunately, there will be no 10 p.m. shows of MOS on June 13th, just the midnight ones (unless you happen to be the ones who bought the Wal-Mart exclusive 7 p.m. screening tickets). WB just sent out an e-mail to all the theater chains saying "No 10 p.m. shows for MOS."

Sigh.

 

[Liam_H]

Very interesting, WB really wants to make it a true midnight showing.

 

[SuperAl]

Looks like After Earth is a bomb, not surprised there. (referring to the reviews)

 

[Astrodust]

Unfortunately, there will be no 10 p.m. shows of MOS on June 13th, just the midnight ones (unless you happen to be the ones who bought the Wal-Mart exclusive 7 p.m. screening tickets). WB just sent out an e-mail to all the theater chains saying "No 10 p.m. shows for MOS."

Sigh.

There are many 10pm shows on the 13th if you live in Canada. I've got my tickets.