Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Tobias]

Wow... I gotta say MOS looks really great in all the tv spots. They r way better than SR the whole movie. Even the plane saving of SR look average compare to MOS tv spots.
I really hope it will do supes in box office.
I hope my prediction is wrong completely

I too hope my 550 million WW prediction is wrong. If reviews are really good and the FB count gets up over 850K I might raise it a bit. FB is an indicator, not the only one, and it's count is too low now. 675K or so.

But yes the film looks incredible, Henry looks incredible, the suit looks incredible (and I am a trunks fan).

Remember how with SR we were starving for still photos of Routh in the suit. There were so few. Not so with henry and MOS. Though there are still not enough photos for my liking - LOL!

On a side note, Ratner's planned 2006 film would have been a lot cloaser to MOS in style and scope than to SR.

 

[Micromind]

SR made more than twice amount of money in India (Compared to Iron Man 2 or Thor), so there is a brand awareness (Superman) compared to other Marvel properties (except Spider-Man which is The most popular super hero.)

Lack of promotion is puzzling, to say the least.

 

[Juha Bach]

I too hope my 550 million WW prediction is wrong. If reviews are really good and the FB count gets up over 850K I might raise it a bit. FB is an indicator, not the only one, and it's count is too low now. 675K or so.

But yes the film looks incredible, Henry looks incredible, the suit looks incredible (and I am a trunks fan).

Remember how with SR we were starving for still photos of Routh in the suit. There were so few. Not so with henry and MOS. Though there are still not enough photos for my liking - LOL!

On a side note, Ratner's planned 2006 film would have been a lot cloaser to MOS in style and scope than to SR.

MOS also has another page with over 150k likes. Though for me FB likes is not really much of a factor but for a new franchise like MOS those are great numbers.

 

[sf2]

I too hope my 550 million WW prediction is wrong. If reviews are really good and the FB count gets up over 850K I might raise it a bit. FB is an indicator, not the only one, and it's count is too low now. 675K or so.

But yes the film looks incredible, Henry looks incredible, the suit looks incredible (and I am a trunks fan).

Remember how with SR we were starving for still photos of Routh in the suit. There were so few. Not so with henry and MOS. Though there are still not enough photos for my liking - LOL!

On a side note, Ratner's planned 2006 film would have been a lot cloaser to MOS in style and scope than to SR.

Me too a trunks fan. Read my signature. Lol. However we all know that the suit will not make or break the movie.

Getting super hype for MOS. It deserves to be watched by all movie goers.

 

[Iceman]

Saw the trailer ahead of both IM3 & Star Trek recently. Looks great in IMAX! This is one of the best trailers of recent years and I'm sure it will convince a lot of people who don't know about the film to see it.

 

[Tobias]

Me too a trunks fan. Read my signature. Lol. However we all know that the suit will not make or break the movie.

Getting super hype for MOS. It deserves to be watched by all movie goers.

In some of Henry's scenes I think the look is better w/o the trunks. In others it could go the opposite way.

Your prediction is much lower than mine. Only comment is 400 million is what SR made in 2006 and adjusted for ticket prices it would come out to 460 million or so. I have to believe MOS does at least as wll as SR taking in adjustment factors for ticket prices.

 

[Tobias]

I can't see MOS being number 1 for 2 weeks straight. Because I can't see MU opening to anything less than $70 million, unless all the fans of the first movie just don't care anymore after 12 years but its still a family/kids movie.

So only way for MOS to top that is to have mega opening and I mean approaching $150 million with a good drop. Or break the June record and have ridiculous hold like the first Spider-Man movie, which had weak competition in its 2nd weekend.

True. Tracking range for opening is 80 - 120 million. Taking the middle gives a 100 million opening. A modest drop week 2 would be 54% bringing week 2 to 46 million. Just no way you play with the numbers that MOS doesn't fall to 2 week 2.

Week 3 is interesting. Depp is hot but I don't get the vibe Lone Ranger will be huge. It may allow both MU and MOS to experience a smaller than normal drop that weekend and add to their takes.

 

[G.Godfrey]

Trackings (from the only ´´official`` sources) are 125, 125, 135, not 80-120 million. If it's a big breakout and it does actually open to 135 (mtc had it at 135 and that was before the newest trailer) and has a great drop of, say, 45% then anything can happen, depending on how MU performs.

 

[JayJustROTFL]

750m

 

[Mysteryman]

True. Tracking range for opening is 80 - 120 million. Taking the middle gives a 100 million opening. A modest drop week 2 would be 54% bringing week 2 to 46 million. Just no way you play with the numbers that MOS doesn't fall to 2 week 2.

Week 3 is interesting. Depp is hot but I don't get the vibe Lone Ranger will be huge. It may allow both MU and MOS to experience a smaller than normal drop that weekend and add to their takes.

Where did you get the 80-120 number from?

 

[Marvin]

Lone Ranger is in week 3?

 

[Tobias]

Where did you get the 80-120 number from?

Reading the various movie sites. This number range is a mix of tracking and predictions. Not always sure when a site is just predicting (like Deadline) or not.

125, 135 million are outliers IMO. The FB counts would be higher, much higher.

boxoffice.com seems more reasonable at 108 million and I guess upped to 112 million. Do they give a reason for upping their projection?

 

[G.Godfrey]

Lone Ranger is in week 3?

Nope, week 4. Not that it matters. It's going to flop.

 

[Tobias]

Lone Ranger is in week 3?

My mistake. Week 4. White House Down week 3. Same argument holds. I am not sure these two films will be huge and if so they may give MU and MOS a chance to have a smaller than normal drop those weekends.

 

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

Facebook likes seem like a terrible indicator. Don't most people add a movie they "like" to their Facebook profile after they see it?

 

[robot]

Facebook likes seem like a terrible indicator. Don't most people add a movie they "like" to their Facebook profile after they see it?

The 'movie' you like does not correspond to the 'official page'... not all movies have pages created by the studios...

 

[robot]

My mistake. Week 4. White House Down week 3. Same argument holds. I am not sure these two films will be huge and if so they may give MU and MOS a chance to have a smaller than normal drop those weekends.

The way I look at it, MU is gonna be HUGE... There's no way MU will open below 70M, and possibly above 100M even...

It'll start to eat into MOS week after week, after week... A lot of families might only go to 1 movie / month or so, and if they have very young kids, they might choose MU... (plus, MOS is rated PG 13)

 

[redp]

Facebook likes seem like a terrible indicator. Don't most people add a movie they "like" to their Facebook profile after they see it?

In this case, the total quantity of Facebook likes aren't a helpful indicator. The increase of facebook likes is a "better" indicator. This is not to say that facebook likes are useless. For example, if it currently had 2M likes then it clearly bodes better results. However, it currently has ~700K likes, so not much can be deduced. But, the recent increase in likes during this week suggests a clear response to the marketing. (This should become clearer next week)

 

[Tobias]

In this case, the total quantity of Facebook likes aren't a helpful indicator. The increase of facebook likes is a "better" indicator. This is not to say that facebook likes are useless. For example, if it currently had 2M likes then it clearly bodes better results. However, it currently has ~700K likes, so not much can be deduced. But, the recent increase in likes during this week suggests a clear response to the marketing. (This should become clearer next week)

Yes. it's an indicator but not an absolute measure. TASM had more than a million likes. If it had 850, 900 or more likes that would bode beter results.

One thing that would get me to increase my modest 550 million WW prediction would be to see the likes move up over 800K - maybe to 850K over these final 3 weeks. I think that would be an indication that maybe something is going on.

 

[GreenKToo]

The lowest OW projection I have seen from the BO sites ( at least the ones that matter ) is 112 mill.
I've seen 120 mill projections, I have also seen 135 ow projections.
I'm around 110/115. word is that some projections are going up even more.

 

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

In this case, the total quantity of Facebook likes aren't a helpful indicator. The increase of facebook likes is a "better" indicator. This is not to say that facebook likes are useless. For example, if it currently had 2M likes then it clearly bodes better results. However, it currently has ~700K likes, so not much can be deduced. But, the recent increase in likes during this week suggests a clear response to the marketing. (This should become clearer next week)

That makes more sense.

 

[Tra-El]

I'd like to stay humble and I'm by NO means a box-office prediction guru. I can only state my opinion on the word of mouth around the internet itself AND the word of mouth around my own community and already I feel this is going to be big at the BO. I say this will be huge. My .2cents.

 

[Pickle-El]

Yes. it's an indicator but not an absolute measure. TASM had more than a million likes. If it had 850, 900 or more likes that would bode beter results.

One thing that would get me to increase my modest 550 million WW prediction would be to see the likes move up over 800K - maybe to 850K over these final 3 weeks. I think that would be an indication that maybe something is going on.

You conveniently ignore the 45 million views trailer 2 has. Yes, 45 million. Is that a good measure?

https://www.youtube.com/results?sea..._view_count&search_query=man+of+steel+trailer

The writing has been on the wall for this movie to have a strong opening since the Christmas trailer. Only IM3 had a higher/similar reaction with its trailers.

FB "likes" has nothing to do with a real indicator like realtime views and social media response. And that's because 1,2, or even 10 million "likes" for Man Of Steel isn't many butts in seats when you add it up.

Attendance for a blockbuster these days domestically is somewhere around 50 million. The avengers had something like 70 million. And that number is a tiny fraction of the 1Billion people on facebook. So you see, FB likes don't matter. The end.

 

[Tobias]

The lowest OW projection I have seen from the BO sites ( at least the ones that matter ) is 112 mill.
I've seen 120 mill projections, I have also seen 135 ow projections.
I'm around 110/115. word is that some projections are going up even more.

I discount this 120 million and above stuff cause IMO you'd see a much larger FB count. It doesn't quite fit.

The 112 I consider high. I'd like to know why they raised it 4 million. I don't know if that is what you meant by projections going up. I find it hard to believe a 120 or 135 million projection is going up.

But if I see a FB count jump of significance in the next weeks I will up my prediction a bit.

I know it's not just FB, it's views of the trailers too. What you want are all quads to be very high to get a blockbuster - likes, views, tweets and all.

 

[robot]

You conveniently ignore the 45 million views trailer 2 has. Yes, 45 million. Is that a good measure?

https://www.youtube.com/results?sea..._view_count&search_query=man+of+steel+trailer

The writing has been on the wall for this movie to have a strong opening since the Christmas trailer. Only IM3 had a higher/similar reaction with its trailers.

FB "likes" has nothing to do with a real indicator like realtime views and social media response. And that's because 1,2, or even 10 million "likes" for Man Of Steel isn't many butts in seats when you add it up.

Attendance for a blockbuster these days domestically is somewhere around 50 million. The avengers had something like 70 million. And that number is a tiny fraction of the 1Billion people on facebook. So you see, FB likes don't matter. The end.

This makes a lot of sense... looks like FB likes is a fraction of actual viewerships...

That's why it's important for studios to have marketing campaigns outside of social media or even on the internet... for every person you reach online, you can reach 10 offline... billboards does wonders..

Tie-Ins with big brands does too, cause they run tv ads for free and also put up billboards, etc...