Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Octoberist]

http://www.cosmicbooknews.com/content/man-steel-selling-better-iron-man-3

I hate this site.

 

[MrMaooz]

We all do.

 

[GreenKToo]

OW, 115 mill.
320/325 dom. I really think it will hit it.

 

[kendalag]

OW, 115 mill.
320/325 dom. I really think it will hit it.

That's pretty much my exact prediction as well. I've been on 115 for about a month now ... haven't gone up or down.

However, I do see the possibility of a range from anywhere from 90-130 or so ... it's kind of a crap shoot in terms of how people look at this film and their interest right away of seeing it.

 

[GreenKToo]

That's pretty much my exact prediction as well. I've been on 115 for about a month now ... haven't gone up or down.

However, I do see the possibility of a range from anywhere from 90-130 or so ... it's kind of a crap shoot in terms of how people look at this film and their interest right away of seeing it.

I know...By all accounts the hype is there. will it translate to ticket sales tho? we shall soon see.

My first estimate ( over a year ago) was about 85/90 mill ow. Its steadily went up. I cant ignore what I see and what i'm hearing.

Not to beat a dead horse here, but MoS has all the bells and whistles that you want in a summer blockbuster. It has that IT feel to it. An event feel if you will.

 

[DKDetective]

Agreed, advanced ticket sales have led to over predictions before. They aren't the be all end all. I especially remember SR and Watchmen's tracking being way off. I'm going to be very cautious this time or at least I think I am being cautious.

Yeah, to be honest, only nerds and diehard fans like us buy advance tickets (at least weeks in advance). All these numbers tell us is that the nerds are mobilizing.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Avengers had low advance ticket sales at this point too.

It doesn't mean much.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

That's a good point about The Avengers. I'm now firmly in camp 100mil-ish opening weekend for MOS. The Wal-Mart ticket thing muddles things a bit so maybe the overall sorta new cheating "weekend" numbers that studios are using will lead to a 115mil opening.

It's more like a 3 and a quarter day opening weekend for films now. Which is fine but it annoys me because it muddles the records movies could break. I understand they have early showings because of the tragedy.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I hate this site.

Let's mislead and build expectations unreasonably high!

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Let's mislead and build expectations unreasonably high!

I remember the wild over predictions for both Superman Returns and Batman Begins...I was one of the Returns overpredictors.

I've wildly under predicted and over predicted movies this year so I'll never say never. Except MOS has no chance at the opening weekend record, that's where I say never. I don't see Iron Man 3 numbers happening either.

 

[sf2]

What does Avengers second weekend have to do with Man of Steel? I understand if we were bringing it up if we were talking about Justice League but we are talking about a Superman reboot. It's sad how some people are just setting themselves up for disappointment by comparing this film to a record breaker.

Exactly. he is superman so he gotta do superb in everything. lol

 

[Bruce Malone]

I remember the wild over predictions for both Superman Returns and Batman Begins...I was one of the Returns overpredictors.

I've wildly under predicted and over predicted movies this year so I'll never say never. Except MOS has no chance at the opening weekend record, that's where I say never. I don't see Iron Man 3 numbers happening either.

It's just misleading for them to go with that headline with no context to it. Most of the comments on that site are from people who now think MOS is going to beat IM3's OW. When it's extremely unlikely to.

 

[GreenKToo]

you're always gonna have overzealous folks who let their excitement get the better of them. I did the same with SR.
I stand by what I have already said, we'll get our billion dollar film in the sequel or WF.

 

[db85usa]

Don't be surprised if this movie opens in the $150 Million camp for the OW. I'm actually leaning towards that happening. More like $130-$150 Million. If the reviews are crazy good (they're expected to be,) then this movie will surprise a lot of people. It'll be the first step towards a WF/JL movie. Many want to see this happen and MoS will earn some viewership because of that.

It's about time Superman is treated in such high regard again.

 

[db85usa]

It will be interesting to see what the CinemaScore will be. If MoS can get an A or A+ for that matter along with solid reviews and a massive opening weekend, I'd expect some serious legs throughout the summer regardless of what movies are released ahead of it. It has that summer blockbuster feel. Spiderman, Iron Man, Pirates of the Caribbean, etc.

 

[Astrodust]

I think Man of Steel is going to tear it up overseas. It is getting a month long run in China. China only lets in so many foreign movies a year and they are saying Man of Steel could make 100 million in China alone! I'm guessing Man of Steel could hit 800-900 million when all is said and done. At least I'm hoping so.

 

[db85usa]

I think Man of Steel is going to tear it up overseas. It is getting a month long run in China. China only lets in so many foreign movies a year and they are saying Man of Steel could make 100 million in China alone! I'm guessing Man of Steel could hit 800-900 million when all is said and done. At least I'm hoping so.

That would be a huge win in China and if so, probably an indication that it would do well in other markets overseas as well. If this were to happen, I don't think $800-$900 million is a longshot.

 

[Juha Bach]

I think Man of Steel is going to tear it up overseas. It is getting a month long run in China. China only lets in so many foreign movies a year and they are saying Man of Steel could make 100 million in China alone! I'm guessing Man of Steel could hit 800-900 million when all is said and done. At least I'm hoping so.

I doubt it would make that much. If so,that would destroy my predictions as i thought it would make 50 mill at most. 100 mill in china alone would give it a great chance at a billion.

 

[sf2]

how much SR did in china?

 

[Liam_H]

Probably not that much but its probably irrelevant. China has expanded so much since 2006 in terms of movie going.

 

[Bruce Malone]

It's actually crazy that Superman Returns only made not even $30 million dollars more in total overseas grosses than Superman the motion picture did almost 30 years earlier.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

how much SR did in china?

Six years ago SR made 8 m in China.

X-men 3 made only 2 million.

Nowadays popular superhero movies can make over 100 m in China.

The market has exploded since 2006.

 

[JOE]

Time will tell.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think MOS will make 80-90 m in China.

Well over TDKR which opened the same day as ASM in August due to Chinese politics.

 

[db85usa]

I just think this movie has too much going for it and a lot of people will be surprised by the result. Great reviews so far, lots of action, a spectacular story, amazing score, superb acting -- you've got pretty much a lot of "The Dark Knight Trilogy" people supporting the film and that's got to say a lot. Man of Steel has more promotional partners than ANY movie in history.

I keep upping my predictions but it is not due to excitement alone. It's due to sales/merchandise, among other things. At this point, once we reach $100 Million for the OW which is a given at this point according to "experts", Man of Steel IMO will end up with a huge, huge OW damn near close to Iron Man 3. I'm thinking $155-$165 million. Nobody has the balls to predict it. I just don't understand the lowballing estimates. This is going to over perform big time. It IS Superman and the Superman film fans have waited for and a movie that is desperately needed.

MoS could be that one movie that just came out at the right time while hitting all cylinders. I sincerely hope this film over performs and really makes a crap ton of money so DC can start making more superhero movies. I absolutely LOVE the realism/gritty/dramatic approach for Batman/Superman and hopefully future superheroes as opposed to quirky, cheesy, and funny.