Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[redp]

You conveniently ignore the 45 million views trailer 2 has. Yes, 45 million. Is that a good measure?

https://www.youtube.com/results?sea..._view_count&search_query=man+of+steel+trailer

The writing has been on the wall for this movie to have a strong opening since the Christmas trailer. Only IM3 had a higher/similar reaction with its trailers.

FB "likes" has nothing to do with a real indicator like realtime views and social media response. And that's because 1,2, or even 10 million "likes" for Man Of Steel isn't many butts in seats when you add it up.

Attendance for a blockbuster these days domestically is somewhere around 50 million. The avengers had something like 70 million. And that number is a tiny fraction of the 1Billion people on facebook. So you see, FB likes don't matter. The end.

IMO, Youtube views and likes are a better indicator but this doesn't mean one can discard FB likes. Note also that Youtube allow multiple views so the final view count can easily be clouded by multiples views that may be intentional or non-intentional. However, they also represent the audience's enthusiasm and hype which is currently stellar. I once again repeat that the final factor in the films success is WOM which relies on the quality of the film.

 

[Tobias]

IMO, Youtube views and likes are a better indicator but this doesn't mean one can discount FB likes. Note also that Youtube allow multiple views so the final view count can easily be clouded by multiples views that may be intentional or non-intentional. However, they also represent the audience's enthusiasm and hype which is currently stellar. I once again repeat that the final factor in the films success is WOM which relies on the quality of the film.

Yes. FB is not a definitive measure but an indicator. IMO the numbers would be quite a bit higher if this was going to open at 112 or 120 million OW.

FB may come up. The increase at this point, if there is one coming, will be IMO a sign something is going on. Assuming it's a relatively signficant increase.

 

[Glassjaw]

Talking of social media and how it might give box office indications, what's with the films Twitter page with 23k followers? Do WB not value Twitter much, or are they content with their own studio page.

 

[GreenKToo]

I discount this 120 million and above stuff cause IMO you'd see a much larger FB count. It doesn't quite fit.

The 112 I consider high. I'd like to know why they raised it 4 million. I don't know if that is what you meant by projections going up. I find it hard to believe a 120 or 135 million projection is going up.

But if I see a FB count jump of significance in the next weeks I will up my prediction a bit.

I know it's not just FB, it's views of the trailers too. What you want are all quads to be very high to get a blockbuster - likes, views, tweets and all.

They raised it because they know the awareness is there. They will be raising it even more..
FB is fine and all, but I usually look at YT views. Neither one really matter tho. some people dont like a film on FB or view trailers on YT.

 

[redp]

Yes. FB is not a definitive measure but an indicator. IMO the numbers would be quite a bit higher if this was going to open at 112 or 120 million OW.

FB may come up. The increase at this point, if there is one coming, will be IMO a sign something is going on. Assuming it's a relatively signficant increase.

That is a fair point because the source of the OW is mainly the fanbase and with the relatively low FB likes(that easily represent the fans) you can argue for a lower opening. But, there are other things to consider like Tweets, media response, and Youtube views.

 

[Tobias]

That is a fair point because the source of the OW is mainly the fanbase and with the relatively low FB likes(that easily represent the fans) you can argue for a lower opening. But, there are other things to consider like Tweets, media response, and Youtube views.

Someone above said it has only 23 K twitter followers. So that sort of aligns with the low FB count.

Talking of social media and how it might give box office indications, what's with the films Twitter page with 23k followers? Do WB not value Twitter much, or are they content with their own studio page.

 

[GreenKToo]

yeah, its kool tho. you have millions and millions of views on YT. so it balances out.

I'm actually starting to think my estimate for the OW is too low at 110/115 mill, but i'm gonna leave it alone for now, at least until the big boys raise theirs.

 

[Tobias]

That is a fair point because the source of the OW is mainly the fanbase and with the relatively low FB likes(that easily represent the fans) you can argue for a lower opening. But, there are other things to consider like Tweets, media response, and Youtube views.

Curious, do you find the 112 and 120 OW projections high given the FB count and few twitter followers or do the other things you mention nperhaps override them? Boxoffice.com acknowledges the low FB count but seem to ignore it in their calculations.

 

[redp]

Curious, do you find the 112 and 120 OW projections high given the FB count and few twitter followers or do the other things you mention nperhaps override them? Boxoffice.com acknowledges the low FB count but seem to ignore it in their calculations.

I usually don't project OW this early. I wait for more information. Given the recen response to latest trailer, I don't find a 112M opening totally absurd. Personally, I find it a tad high.

 

[Tobias]

I usually don't project OW this early. I wait for more information. Given the recen response to latest trailer, I don't find a 112M opening totally absurd. Personally, I find it a tad high.

Funny F&F has like 34 million FB likes and Hangover almost as many. MOS is not in that league at all. I agree boxoffice .com is high on it's estimate. Don't they see these totally out of whack FB numbers? I'm sort of at a loss here. I know FB likes are not the be all and end all but something seems off here. Course even IM3 had "just" 11 million like. Far fewer than F&F.

Problem is when boxoffice raises it's figure for OW too many fans take it as Gospel. I remember back to SR and how disappointed I was that opening weekend and so am going to be happy expecting a 95/100 OW.

 

[redp]

Funny F&F has like 34 million FB likes and Hangover almost as many. MOS is not in that league at all. I agree boxoffice .com is high on it's estimate. Don't they see these totally out of whack FB numbers? I'm sort of at a loss here. I know FB likes are not the be all and end all but something seems off here. Course even IM3 had "just" 11 million like. Far fewer than F&F.

Problem is when boxoffice raises it's figure for OW too many fans take it as Gospel. I remember back to SR and how disappointed I was that opening weekend and so am going to be happy with a 95/100 OW.

F&F FB likes and all the others in fact are fueled by their franchise aspect. Dont worry too much about FB it isnt an important factor for MOS.

 

[Tobias]

F&F FB likes and all the others in fact are fueled by their franchise aspect. Dont worry too much about FB it isnt an important factor for MOS.

Yup. Just an indicator. TASM has 1.17 FB likes to 34 million for F&F and yet F&F will probably just tie it overall in the BO. A portion of these likes come in after the film has been seen.

Hopefully MOS will see a solid gain in likes in the next 3 weeks.

So many moving parts. It's why my WW prediction is 550. Just too many variables. Despite the fact MOS looks absolutely incredible.

 

[redp]

Yup. Just an indicator. TASM has 1.17 FB likes to 34 million for F&F and yet F&F will probably just tie it overall in the BO. A portion of these likes come in after the film has been seen.

Hopefully MOS will see a solid gain in likes in the next 3 weeks.

So many moving parts. It's why my WW prediction is 550. Just too many variables. Despite the fact MOS looks absolutely incredible.

It truly is!!

 

[fake]

Yup. Just an indicator. TASM has 1.17 FB likes to 34 million for F&F and yet F&F will probably just tie it overall in the BO. A portion of these likes come in after the film has been seen.

Hopefully MOS will see a solid gain in likes in the next 3 weeks.

So many moving parts. It's why my WW prediction is 550. Just too many variables. Despite the fact MOS looks absolutely incredible.

The MoS page added 5000 likes in the past 24 hours and 13000 in the past 48. It was 667k 2 days ago and 675k yesterday at this time. Currently 680k. If MoS hits, the sequel will start with a lot of fans on FB since the current page will convert to one for the second part.

FF6 and Hangover 3 have a lot of fans because of their franchise tie-in.

The MoS twitter page has very few followers because they were on a different twitter handle till 2 weeks ago. The twitter handle used to be @WBManofsteel, for some reason that one was discontinued and they got a new twitter handle.

All I am hoping for with MoS is a good launch of 80M+ and good legs to take it past 250. But more important than any numbers - good audience reception. Numbers are not the only thing for this movie, it needs to make us believe that a DC universe can exist on screen.

 

[Juha Bach]

Social media IMO is not big indicator for box office outcome but since there are some here who think that MoS performance in the social media is mediocre or too low(which is not the case) please take time to read this article. http://www.boxoffice.com/articles/2013-05-social-network-futures-man-of-steel-for-522-or-523
i hope it eases your concerns.
http://www.boxoffice.com/articles/2013-05-social-network-futures-man-of-steel-for-522-or-523

 

[Rhonimus]

Social media IMO is not big indicator for box office outcome but since there are some here who think that MoS performance in the social media is mediocre or too low(which is not the case) please take time to read this article. http://www.boxoffice.com/articles/2013-05-social-network-futures-man-of-steel-for-522-or-523
i hope it eases your concerns.

cool .. informative article .. should ease concerns over the FB likes count

 

[Ms. Marvel]

If this movie doesn't do well, then there is not much hope for any other summer movie. I expect $700-900 million. Below that, I will be VERY shocked indeed.

 

[Tobias]

cool .. informative article .. should ease concerns over the FB likes count

Checking out boxoffice.com it seems their track record leaves a lot to be desired.

108 predicted for F&F and it got 122 and 72 predicted for Hangover and it got 52. I think you can take their other predictions including that for MOS with a grain of salt.

Shawn who wrote the article about MOS above even tweeted if what happened with Hangover happens with MOS it could be screwed or it could make 400 million. Clearly she is admitting the huge error range in her/boxoffice.com's predictions. She probably didn't mean to tweet that but that is all you need to know IMO.

My point is these so-called tracking experts have no accuarate methodology. As we saw with F&F and Hangover this weekend. I'm trying to find what they predicticted fro STID but their site is hard to navigate. I'd like a list of their predictions followed by actuals but they don't make it so easy. Boxoffice.com just lost all credibility with me after seeing this. They may be fun to read but don't pin your hopes on what they say.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Hangover 3 got pretty bad reviews...
F&F got pretty good reviews.
Plus CA has 6.9 mill likes on fb while James Bond only has 1.9 mill....that does not mean I expect the Winter Soldier to make 1.1 billion like Skyfall.

 

[Marvin]

The online response to something is often skewed.
Look at the entirety of the people that lead to Titanic's revenue. How many of them have an online presence.

If a film caters to an online audience, it's skews things. Sometimes it reveals things other times it confuses them. Scott Pilgrim is what I would call a film that somewhat caters to the online community, so when you see polls up...well you know.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

So how many "likes" much does Man of Steel need to calm you all down?

 

[Pickle-El]

Checking out boxoffice.com it seems their track record leaves a lot to be desired.

108 predicted for F&F and it got 122 and 72 predicted for Hangover and it got 52. I think you can take their other predictions including that for MOS with a grain of salt.

Shawn who wrote the article about MOS above even tweeted if what happened with Hangover happens with MOS it could be screwed.

My point is these so-called tracking experts have no accuarate methodology. As we saw with F&F and Hangover this weekend. I'm trying to find what they predicticted fro STID but their site is hard to navigate. I'd like a list of their predictions followed by actuals but they don't make it so easy. Boxoffice.com just lost all credibility with me after seeing this. They may be fun to read but don't pin your hopes on what they say.

Those are 4 day predictions. They were on the money for Fast and Furious. Just 2 million off.

Hangover 3 underperformed by 20 million in the 4 day prediction. Then again, after Hangover 2 and those terrible reivews....anyone surprised?

If MOS is tracking for 100 million. Even if it is off by 20 million like H3, and does 80 million for the 3 day....are we calling that a disappointment?

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Those are 4 day predictions. They were on the money for Fast and Furious. Just 2 million off.

Hangover 3 underperformed by 20 million in the 4 day prediction. Then again, after Hangover 2 and those terrible reivews....anyone surprised?

If MOS is tracking for 100 million. Even if it is off by 20 million like H3, and does 80 million for the 3 day....are we calling that a disappointment?

And if it's good then it should be 120 million

But seriously, opening weekend is actually not that big of a deal.
Look at Avatar.

 

[Pickle-El]

The online response to something is often skewed.
Look at the entirety of the people that lead to Titanic's revenue. How many of them have an online presence.

If a film caters to an online audience, it's skews things. Sometimes it reveals things other times it confuses them. Scott Pilgrim is what I would call a film that somewhat caters to the online community, so when you see polls up...well you know.

I never understood why people used Scott Pilgrim or Snakes On A Plane as examples of strong online presence and terrible box office return. Sure, some people might have been excited for their fav comic come to life or a new Sam Jackson f-filled flick....but, did these ever have year-long unveilings or 4-quadrant anticipation at any point?

You can only go by big movies that had high anticipation and lived up to it. (Avengers for example) and big movies with high expectations that didn't. (John Carter).

And even John Carter did 300 million total with a terrible 30 million dollar opening in the US.

 

[Tobias]

And if it's good then it should be 120 million

But seriously, opening weekend is actually not that big of a deal.
Look at Avatar.

That is the point. This is a wild card. It could be 80 million, it could be 120 million. Boxoffice.com's in effect admitted that.

I see too many people jumping on the fact they raised their weekend estimate to 112 as if it was Gospel. It is not.

I went through this in 2006. The predictions were for 120 /130 million. I bought into it. And when it didn't happen I was literally sick for a day or two out of disappointment.

Opening weekend is a big deal - unless you are Titanic or Avatar. MOS is neither.

I dunno what will happen other than MOS will beat SR's adjusted total of about 470 million WW. I just find it hard to get excited over boxoffice.com when they are blowing smoke when it comes to their predictions. That is a gig I'd love - state something as part of my job but not be held accountable for being wrong in what I state.

Shawn's admission should be an eye-opener to all.