Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[KingKane88]

I'm actually at 90-92mil right now with a 280-290mil finish.

International numbers are difficult to predict but I'm coming down with 325mil now. Those are my updated predictions.

Obviously I'm a fangirl and if the movie is as good as it looks I hope it overshoots my predictions by a mile. So I want to be really, really wrong.

These numbers are basically within my ballpark, and while we see these as realistic numbers, others (who IMO have there hopes to high) may call us pessimist.

My "MAIN" hope/happiness/non-fear of Snyder bringing us emotion in this movie, came when Jim Lee stated on national TV a couple weeks back that he literally cryed 3 times during the movie! This comment alone took so much stress off me about this movie, you don't even know!

 

[Rhonimus]

I think the only thing at this point that can derail this MOS runaway locomotive as it makes the final turn into the station, would be the critics. It can't be much longer (perhaps 7-10 days) until we get the first legitimate reviews. If it gets reviewed as well as The Avengers, and WB uses those quotes, then imo MOS will likely explode beyond most people's expectations at the B.O. on OW. If most or some of the more notable tracking companies start revising their estimates up in the next couple of weeks, that will speak volumes in my book.

Agreed .. all the ingredients are there .. emotion, scale, action .. more so than Avengers from what i can tell .. & look at the crit reviews for Avengers

if critics can refrain from any possible bias & review MoS on its merits & WOM get going, then i can well imagine a break out performance through its theatrical runtime

 

[KingKane88]

Agreed .. all the ingredients are there .. emotion, scale, action .. more so than Avengers from what i can tell .. & look at the crit reviews for Avengers

if critics can refrain from any possible bias & review MoS on its merits & WOM get going, then i can well imagine a break out performance through its theatrical runtime

What Page did you find this post on, I could have sworn in read through them all? BTW, I could NOT agree more! Best post IMO on this subject/thread. In this day and age, Internet,reviews,critics/RT is key to winning over the average man/woman with an IQ below 110 (just stating the truth). Too many people these days seem to judge there opinions on others opinions, without even knowing what they are judging there opinion on! Makes me sick, but it is what it is.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Were people on this board being "realistic" when they said Avengers would make $800 million? That was $700 million off.

 

[Juha Bach]

Agreed .. all the ingredients are there .. emotion, scale, action .. more so than Avengers from what i can tell .. & look at the crit reviews for Avengers

if critics can refrain from any possible bias & review MoS on its merits & WOM get going, then i can well imagine a break out performance through its theatrical runtime

As far as rotten tomatoes goes, they don't seem to like Zack snyder. So yes lets hope that factor does not cloud their judgement.Though if they give this movie a lower RT than superman returns that site should be shut down.

 

[Liam_H]

Well, Box Office updated their long range forecast for MoS to $112 Million for the OW and $340 Million domestic. (I'm sure many of you are aware of that update,) But yet, they project $76 Million OW for Despicable Me 2 and $353 Million domestic. Really? A 4.6+ multiplier? No way that happens. If anything, it'll open biggger than $76 Million IMO. Back on topic, for MoS -- I think anything above $100 million is a success for a reboot. I mean, that's higher than Batman Begins and Amazing Spiderman. If it grosses above $100 million, it should easily end up with $300+ domestic and $450-$500 foreign. IMO this would be huge and would greenlight a Batman/Superman film or even a JL film.

You're not taking into account that its opening on a Wednesday to take advantage of the July 4th weekend. That $76 million figure is for the Friday-Sunday total.

In general kids movies get great multipliers since there is no 'fanboy' rush during the opening weekend. Especially if there is no other kids movie to challenge it for weeks. Look at The Croods back in March, over 4 multiplier and not another animation until Epic this past weekend.

 

[Kalonthar]

As far as rotten tomatoes goes, they don't seem to like Zack snyder. So yes lets hope that factor does not cloud their judgement.Though if they give this movie a lower RT than superman returns that site should be shut down.

I don't see it doing worse than SR, which is good because SR is at 76% based on 256 critical reviews. That's not great, but it's far from terrible.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

As far as rotten tomatoes goes, they don't seem to like Zack snyder. So yes lets hope that factor does not cloud their judgement.Though if they give this movie a lower RT than superman returns that site should be shut down.

But...but they like Christopher Nolan.

And they have given Snyder good reviews before.....

 

[Project862006]

well if variety's tweet holds true maybe they have no choice but to give him props

 

[Micromind]

Speaking of that i brought this up in another thread but has anyone heard if brandon routh has made any comments on cavil or the new film?

I know he was still really gung-ho to stay on as superman in a returns sequel even after that looked unlikely.

All, he said recently-

But he seems to have accepted that he won't get a chance to be Superman and has moved on.

 

[Dr. Fortress]

sorry, but i'm convinced this does north of 100 mill ow ( 110/115 to be precise )
I too predicted a big opening for SR, but this isnt SR, and thankfully WB has gotten the word out that it isn't.
Nolan,
snyder,
the cast,
the visuals,
the action,
the score,
= a big OW.

100% correct.

I'm actually at 90-92mil right now with a
280-290mil finish.

International numbers are difficult to predict but I'm coming down with 325mil now. Those are my updated predictions.

Obviously I'm a fangirl and if the movie is as good as it looks I hope it overshoots my predictions by a mile. So I want to be really, really wrong.

Seriously? Well, you will be really, really wrong.

 

[robot]

Were people on this board being "realistic" when they said Avengers would make $800 million. That was $700 million off.

Hahaha.. this if funny, yet so true...

I won't predict because it's nonsense... but I'll just say that I am rooting for MOS to hit 1 billion...

 

[Tobias]

I think the only thing at this point that can derail this MOS runaway locomotive as it makes the final turn into the station, would be the critics. It can't be much longer (perhaps 7-10 days) until we get the first legitimate reviews. If it gets reviewed as well as The Avengers, and WB uses those quotes, then imo MOS will likely explode beyond most people's expectations at the B.O. on OW. If most or some of the more notable tracking companies start revising their estimates up in the next couple of weeks, that will speak volumes in my book.

Agree about critics' impact.

Tracking firms? They have been so wrong on so many films recently I don't see them having credibility. How do they stay in business.

Boxoffice.com is I guess not a tracking firm but after going to the site and reading Shawn's tweet re: MOS and just looking at what they've predicted recently - no way I take any prediction by them seriously.

I don't think the tracking firms have a clue.

 

[Dr. Fortress]

Hahaha.. this if funny, yet so true...

I won't predict because it's nonsense... but I'll just say that I am rooting for MOS to hit 1 billion...

The more footage I see, I cant see why it couldn't, honestly.

 

[Tobias]

I'm actually at 90-92mil right now with a 280-290mil finish.

International numbers are difficult to predict but I'm coming down with 325mil now. Those are my updated predictions.

Obviously I'm a fangirl and if the movie is as good as it looks I hope it overshoots my predictions by a mile. So I want to be really, really wrong.

Agree about opening. I see 90/95.

Close on domestic. I see 250million. But if WOM is great and MU doesn't take a lot of business away like POTC did with SR, domestic total could climb north of 250.

Because of the weak international marketing especially in Asia where big bucks can be made I'm guessing 300 million OS.

I think we are considered pessimists but I prefer to think of us as realists.

 

[LeMartien]

Seriously? Well, you will be really, really wrong.

every articles about Summer predictions say MOS would be earn 250 280 M domestically.... and so so much 400M overseas

 

[Dr. Fortress]

every articles about Summer predictions say MOS would be earn 250 280 M domestically.... and so so much 400M overseas

It will be higher, trust me.

 

[Tobias]

every articles about Summer predictions say MOS would be earn 250 280 M domestically.... and so so much 400M overseas

True. I haven't read all the summer predictions made by magazines but of all the ones I've read (EW excepted but it is owned by WB) the predictions have been for MOS to be a modest success at 250, 260 or so domestic.

Deadline has as good a track record as any of these online sites (which is not saying much) but it too has been predicting a modest success at 240 million.

Deja vu from 2006 when magazines and non-fan sources were predicting a modest BO for SR and fans were predicting much higher - 600/700 million. Only difference now is some fans are predicting even higher numbers by a lot than they did for SR.

Got burned playing that game in 2006.

The film probably opens under 100 million so the multiplier will be key. It needs to be close to 3 to pull MOS close to 300 million. That will depend on reviews, WOM and RT score.

 

[sf2]

Wow FF6 doing great. Making 122M Ow!!! It seems like it's easy to make over 100M OW in theses days

 

[Kryptonian Warrior]

Wow FF6 doing great. Making 122M Ow!!! It seems like it's easy to make over 100M OW in theses days

That's also the 6th movie in a successful franchise too. Plus having The Rock as part of your cast is a very good thing to have these days. Like him or not, he's starting to turn into Box Office gold, IMO. I don't think it's quite as easy as you think it is, IMO.

 

[Mysteryman]

The makers of The Fast and Furious movies are very smart .
They basically rebranded the franchise .
they turned it away from the street racing culture and turned into an action franchise heists, capers , international criminals, etc.

 

[Tobias]

Wow FF6 doing great. Making 122M Ow!!! It seems like it's easy to make over 100M OW in theses days

Tell that to STID. It's not that easy.

BTW, X-Men made 122 million over the same holiday weekend in 2006 - that would be like 150 million today.

F$F is doing gangbusters overseas. It could end up one of 2013's top 5 films if it has legs. It'll be interesting to see if it has a small fall-off next weekend. Boxoffice was way off on this too.

 

[sf2]

That's also the 6th movie in a successful franchise too. Plus having The Rock as part of your cast is a very good thing to have these days. Like him or not, he's starting to turn into Box Office gold, IMO. I don't think it's quite as easy as you think it is, IMO.

The rock as BO gold???!!! Because he can act???!!! WB should have cast him as superman!!! D.mnit

 

[GreenKToo]

I see a dom take of around 310 mill, overseas around 325/350.
I just cant see anything below 290 mill dom. the awarness is too great....

granted, my figures are based on the film being good. assuming it is, then i hope i'm wrong and the takes even higher.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

Holy. I was predicting only $90 mil for FF6. Guess I underestimated. And why is MOS predicted to only make $280 domestically? That's a bit small.