Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Big McLargehuge]

That's my limit is $150 Million. If WB straight up asked me what I think MoS will gross in its OW I would say $130-$150 Million based on analytical market research alone. Their $90 Mil expectation implies they really expect $110-$115 million so they can be surprised when June 16th comes with an unofficial estimate.

*edit* anything over $100 million for the OW is a win for all of us that are fans and want to see the film do well. No matter who is right or who is wrong.

What do you take into account when you make your predictions? Just out of curiosity.

 

[Juha Bach]

The third one is irrelevant because that's $10M they were going to get from midnight showings regardless. If you're willing to buy it a month in advance at Wal-Mart, you'll buy midnight tickets at your local IMAX theatre.

From my understanding, walmart were selling tickets for the 7pm screening on june 13 not midnight. I stand to be corrected though.

 

[JOE]

From my understanding, walmart were selling tickets for the 7pm screening on june 13 not midnight. I stand to be corrected though.

Regardless. If they weren't, anyone who bought one would have bought the midnight showing tickets. The demand is there regardless of who sells it to them.

 

[JOE]

The fanboy predictions are more often dead wrong than the logical ones. By a huge margin.

They always severely overestimate a property they love. Assume everyone else can't wait to see it too and will watch it 10 times in theaters. Countless examples.

Exactly, yet some are unwilling to admit that not everyone is as excited as them for the more to premiere. Member of the Hype aside of course.

 

[Iceman]

Every $10m more this makes above $100m in its opening weekend (that is IF it makes over $100m ) an additional DC project virtually gets greenlit. t:

 

[JOE]

I guess there won't be any DC projects getting greenlit...

Haha, I'm kidding Iceman. Although I'm technically not, I just hope I'm wrong and you're right.

 

[SolarWorlder]

I'm sure you'll agree, SolarWorlder, that if MOS makes anywhere between 550-700M WW that it'll be considered a success.

I would, if recent CBMs didn't keep raising the cinematic bar and the box office expectations that go with it.

I have a bad feeling MAN OF STEEL will be judged and measured, rightly or wrongly, by how well it does during its cinematic run vs. how well IRON MAN 3 ultimately does in its cinematic run.

I have a bad feeling if MAN OF STEEL does well but not close to IRON MAN 3 numbers (like, less than $100M OW and less than $300M Domestic Total), too many people (like the suits at WB) will deem it a disappointment.


That said, I am very confident about it clearing $100M opening weekend and clearing $400M domestically.t:

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Exactly, yet some are unwilling to admit that not everyone is as excited as them for the more to premiere. Member of the Hype aside of course.

Lets look at the last four superhero movies.

Avengers - overpredicting fanboys were right

IM3 - overpredicting fanboys were right

ASM - moderate predictions were right

TDKR - moderate predictio.s were right

So if anything we should be bashing underpredicters since they are right 0 out of 4 times.

But where's the fun in that, right?

 

[JOE]

I would, if recent CBMs didn't keep raising the cinematic bar and the box office expectations that go with it.

I have a bad feeling MAN OF STEEL will be judged and measured, rightly or wrongly, by how well it does during its cinematic run vs. how well IRON MAN 3 ultimately does in its cinematic run.

I have a bad feeling if MAN OF STEEL does well but not close to IRON MAN 3 numbers (like, less than $100M OW and less than $300M Domestic Total), too many people (like the suits at WB) will deem it a disappointment.


That said, I am very confident about it clearing $100M opening weekend and clearing $400M domestically.t:

I can't say I agree with your last statement. I do feel as though this movie is going to be criticized on it's story & pacing. Mostly because there won't be much to complain about with the action.

 

[JOE]

Lets look at the last four superhero movies.

Avengers - overpredicting fanboys were right

IM3 - overpredicting fanboys were right

ASM - moderate predictions were right

TDKR - moderate predictio.s were right

So if anything we should be bashing underpredicters since they are right 0 out of 4 times.

But where's the fun in that, right?

Skewed statement... 2 of those 4 came off billion dollar movies. The other one came off 5 above average (BO wise) movies as far as CBM go.

TASM even had a successful (BO wise) trilogy it came off of within the last 6 years. I said BO wise since the 3rd one was garbage.

 

[Notrip]

People will flock to this movie, A: No big movie since Memorial Day weekend. B: Nolan's name is really popular with the general audience "from the director of the Dark Knight Trilogy" = MONEY and WB knows it!!! C: Superhero movies are still big (much bigger than in 2006) D: The trailers/tv spots have all looked AMAZING and people have taken notice. (even non-Superman fans or those who don't care for Superman)

All of this is a sign that says if this movie does less than 100 million OW I WILL BE absolutely shocked!!

My updated Box-office predictions
130 OW (I am guessing 50 million on Friday - 43 on Saturday - 37 on Sunday) I will even throw out a 12 million Monday

390 Domestic - 500 International for a total of 890 WW

Yes it may be high, but all indications are it will be a huge hit!

 

[JOE]

I hope you're right Notrip... But I feel bad for you if I'm right and it lands between 550-700M WW.

 

[Notrip]

I hope you're right Notrip... But I feel bad for you if I'm right and it lands between 550-700M WW.

I hope I am right for DC comics fate. But anything like 100ow/300D/350int would be expected and perfectly fine by me as long as I would get MOS2 and a WF

 

[SolarWorlder]

Hmmmm ... getting more optimistic

http://comicbook.com/blog/2013/06/06/will-man-of-steel-be-the-top-grossing-june-opener-ever/

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Skewed statement... 2 of those 4 came off billion dollar movies. The other one came off 5 above average (BO wise) movies as far as CBM go.

TASM even had a successful (BO wise) trilogy it came off of within the last 6 years. I said BO wise since the 3rd one was garbage.

Don't try to confuse the issue. You guys are mocking fanboys for "always overpredicting".

In both cases the people who overpredicted were right.

The "logical" people were wrong.

and the most conservative people, who underpredicted, were wrong every time for the last four major superhero movies.

Why don't you mock them?

 

[JOE]

Don't try to confuse the issue. You guys are mocking fanboys for "always overpredicting".

In both cases the people who overpredicted were right.

The "logical" people were wrong.

and the most conservative people, who underpredicted, were wrong every time for the last four major superhero movies.

Why don't you mock them?

Well then they're technically not "overpredicted", right? If the movie falls where they say it's going to fall.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

TASM was over predicted last time I checked. Funny enough I did under predict it but most on here over predicted the film.

 

[JOE]

The OS carries that BO. ^ Thank God for the foreigners.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

TASM was over predicted last time I checked. Funny enough I did under predict it but most on here over predicted the film.

I said the moderate predictions were right for ASM and TDKR and the high predictions were right for IM3 and Avengers.

The low predictors haven't been correct about a major superhero movie in a long time.

They deserve the mockery, not the high predictors and fanboy loonies.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Well then they're technically not "overpredicted", right? If the movie falls where they say it's going to fall.

Well I'm meant people who give high predictions versus moderate and low predictions.

but you know this already. t:

Is this detour into a pointless semantics debate a concession that you lost the original argument?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Nobody deserves mockery except people who think that anything under a billion means that a movie bombed.

 

[JOE]

I said the moderate predictions were right for ASM and TDKR and the high predictions were right for IM3 and Avengers.

The low predictors haven't been correct about a major superhero movie in a long time.

They deserve the mockery, not the high predictors and fanboy loonies.

That's circumstantial considering the last 4 CBM that came out accumulated $4,531,245,151 WW which is just over 1.1B each. Coincidentally, as stated earlier, how two of those came of billion dollar movies another off a trilogy that made over 2B and the last one coming off 5 movies that all did decently well in the BO.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Nobody deserves mockery except people who think that anything under a billion means that a movie bombed.

Who said that?

I agreed with you that 600 m WW is enough for a sequel but 700-750 m WW was probably needed to get most of the founding members of the Justice League solo movies.

and I stand by that.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

That's circumstantial considering the last 4 CBM that came out accumulated $4,531,245,151 WW which is just over 1.1B each. Coincidentally, as stated earlier, how two of those came of billion dollar movies another off a trilogy that made over 2B and the last one coming off 5 movies that all did decently well in the BO.

The average prediction for Avengers and IM3 was less than a billion.

So anything over that was considered a high prediction until these movies proved the low and moderate predictions wrong.

 

[JOE]

Anyone who predicted IM3 being under 1B after the Avengers was just naive. The Avengers must have shocked people, but c'mon... Arguably the most popular Avenger has a 3rd movie come out after a 1.5B smash in the BO the year before and people don't think it will clear 1B? Yet there's a handful of people who don't like the movie and it still cleared 1B with ease.

People know Tony Stark, people know Iron Man, people know Robert Downey Jr. MOS might be twice the movie IM3 was, but they'll never have twice the lead role. RDJ has shown that to us.