Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Donar]

Avengers got lucky that it had no competition for a month. If a movie like Star Trek or a Pixar movie would have came out, it wouldn't have done as well. This'll make a billion, easily. The fact that its even a discussion bewilders me

LOL. Thanks for the joke.

 

[sf2]

The first 3 days wasn't what got TA to 1.5B, it was the second and third and fourth weeks of still selling tickets that gave it the extra boost.

MOS will not have that. It's legs are too weak especially with MU and This Is The End.

How to tell MOShas poor legs??? Have u watched it yet???

 

[JOE]

That's a HUGE range. I think he's just trying to cover his bases now that Man of Steel is at 67% at RT. Ouch!

Exactly!

Oh well, he's setting himself up for disappointment.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The audience loved The Avengers and all the jealousy in the world about it's box office numbers and critical reviews doesn't change that fact. The critics don't love MOS but it's not out yet so we have no idea what the audience thinks.

 

[Dragon_316ca]

http://www.comingsoon.net/news/weekendwarriornews.php?id=105286

Weekend Est.: $102 to 105 million opening weekend; Est. Total Gross: $325 million

 

[robot]

Originally Posted by schiz0id
That's a HUGE range. I think he's just trying to cover his bases now that Man of Steel is at 67% at RT. Ouch!

I made my prediction way before RT scores came in... Might want to check your facts before mouthing off..

Exactly!

Oh well, he's setting himself up for disappointment.

Says the guy who can't even stand by his own prediction...

 

[robot]

The audience loved The Avengers and all the jealousy in the world about it's box office numbers and critical reviews doesn't change that fact. The critics don't love MOS but it's not out yet so we have no idea what the audience thinks.

Yup, Avengers was fun... it's always up to the GA in the end...

 

[GreenKToo]

The audience loved The Avengers and all the jealousy in the world about it's box office numbers and critical reviews doesn't change that fact. The critics don't love MOS but it's not out yet so we have no idea what the audience thinks.

I agree a 100%.
we know that MoS will more than likely open to a 100 mill, maybe a little more. the tracking shows that. The big questions are, will it have legs and repeat viewings.
big unknowns there.

 

[Marvin]

It's a discussion because of the people that brought it up. I'm on several box office sites and no one that I know of, who studies this stuff has said it will make 1B. That doesn't mean that it wont, but considering there has been one film in June that has reached a billion WW, it's got a long hill to climb.

2 films actually.
But again, how many others were in a position too. It's not like as if WB releasing TDKR in june is some sort of death sentence.

You are also saying contradictory things, you say that Avengers wouldn't have done as well if it didn't have competition, but somehow a movie that's projected to open 130, is going to make a billion, even though there's going to be three solid weeks of new releases that will probably draw a large audience.

Avengers wouldn't have done as well if it had serious competition. Objectively this can be proven by tossing Avatar and TDK and IM3 in the 3 weeks following it's release. That film did benefit in some way by battleship and whatever that depp film was sucking big time. But that's beside the point.

Competition(of this WWZ nature) wouldn't haved stopped avengers from hitting the 1 billion figure. It may have not even stopped it from hitting those james cameron numbers. But if the 1 billion figure itself is in question, I personally wouldn't rule out MOS' chances of hitting it.

So the big question is, why the heck does it have to make a billion? So you can pat yourself on the back for you prediction? It doesn't have to make a billion, if it does more power to them, but it's highly, highly unlikely especially with tepid reviews. As much money as Transformers RoTF made it didn't make 1B. Dark of the moon made 1B but it's the 3rd in the franchise and was essentially a July release (A Wednesday June 29th release).

ROTF got tepid reviews, and probably would have made a billion if the surcharge was in place and the competition was slimmer. I've seen 2 tepid reviews for MoS, and they themselves didn't seem as even keeled as I would have hoped. I have also seen alot crap load of glowing "reviews". Not sure TF2 had many of those.

As for why anyone needs any film to make any amount of money, I suppose bragging rights play a part. Sticking it to detractors has it's charms. I would hope franchise security does as well. For me personally I just like seeing filmmakers I like vindicated. The internet and film journalism has become such an ugly place, especially when we all became as connected as we are.

It's always so odd to hear people state TF3 as being the 3rd film in a hit franchise and thus attributing it's success to mostly that fact. Spend too much time around these parts and you would think no one liked TF2..critics or otherwise.

 

[Tony Stark]

How to tell MOShas poor legs??? Have u watched it yet???

No one knows, but Avengers faced very little competition, MoS will face a lot.

 

[sf2]

The audience feedback is most important.
I thought WWZ is gonna bomb.

 

[GreenKToo]

One thing in its favor is the action crowd will love this film, thats IF the action is as good as we hear.. It may get multiple repeat viewings.

 

[sf2]

No one knows, but Avengers faced very little competition, MoS will face a lot.

That would make the win sweeter.

 

[Tony Stark]

2 films actually.
But again, how many others were in a position too. It's not like as if WB releasing TDKR in june is some sort of death sentence.

No 1 film, DoTM is not really a June release. The first weekend was in July right over the Holiday.

Avengers wouldn't have done as well if it had serious competition. Objectively this can be proven by tossing Avatar and TDK and IM3 in the 3 weeks following it's release. That film did benefit in some way by battleship and whatever that depp film was sucking big time. But that's beside the point.

That is absolutely stupid. If you're going to throw out a scenario, do one that might actually happen. No studio would release a tentpole film a week after another big film releases. When we say Avengers had no competition, we just mean the films following it weren't very good, it's not like they didn't try to promote the living hell out of Battleship, it just sucked. You know what? TDK didn't face very good competition either after it's release, until a month later when Tropic Thunder knocked it off.

Competition(of this WWZ nature) wouldn't haved stopped avengers from hitting the 1 billion figure. It may have not even stopped it from hitting those james cameron numbers. But if the 1 billion figure itself is in question, I personally wouldn't rule out MOS' chances of hitting it.

I've answered this, go read my previous post, there is one scenario where it can hit 1B, there's numerous others where it doesn't.

ROTF got tepid reviews, and probably would have made a billion if the surcharge was in place and the competition was slimmer. I've seen 2 tepid reviews for MoS, and they themselves didn't seem as even keeled as I would have hoped. I have also seen alot crap load of glowing "reviews". Not sure TF2 had many of those.

As for why anyone needs any film to make any amount of money, I suppose bragging rights play a part. Sticking it to detractors has it's charms. I would hope franchise security does as well. For me personally I just like seeing filmmakers I like vindicated. The internet and film journalism has become such an ugly place, especially when we all became as connected as we are.

It's always so odd to hear people state TF3 as being the 3rd film in a hit franchise and thus attributing it's success to mostly that fact. Spend too much time around these parts and you would think no one liked TF2..critics or otherwise.

I thought all the transformers movies were pure ****, so I can't explain their success other than some people apparently liked them, but I wasn't among them.

The point is that TF3 had a built in audience and built up the international audience, in a year that was otherwise horrible for box office numbers.

 

[JOE]

The worst part about this movie not doing well with the critics is that if the BO suffers because of it, any chance at a JL movie in future years will be killed... Poor DC.

 

[db85usa]

Realistically, this shouldn't open above $200 million, it just won't happen. If it does, then I think Christopher Nolan should be solely responsible for it, lol.

All kidding aside, tracking for MoS is tough and there aren't a lot of companies throwing out specific numbers it is more of the same $100+ million expectation. The reason is because beyond $100 million anything could happen. I still expect $130-$150 million OW.

BoxOffice.com projection still sits at $115 Million OW and $357 DOM final which is pretty darn good by today's standards. I think the DOM total is right on the mark but could end up a little higher like $360-$380 million and that's if it has some legs. The RT reviews aren't very encouraging but again, fans and the GA will be the ones who make or break this film.

 

[GreenKToo]

Realistically, this shouldn't open above $200 million, it just won't happen. If it does, then I think Christopher Nolan should be solely responsible for it, lol.

All kidding aside, tracking for MoS is tough and there aren't a lot of companies throwing out specific numbers it is more of the same $100+ million expectation. The reason is because beyond $100 million anything could happen. I still expect $130-$150 million OW.

BoxOffice.com projection still sits at $115 Million OW and $357 DOM final which is pretty darn good by today's standards. I think the DOM total is right on the mark but could end up a little higher like $360-$380 million and that's if it has some legs. The RT reviews aren't very encouraging but again, fans and the GA will be the ones who make or break this film.

Have you lowered you expectations for the BO?

 

[schiz0id]

I made my prediction way before RT scores came in... Might want to check your facts before mouthing off..



Says the guy who can't even stand by his own prediction...

I still see it as a copout. $350m is a huge range and margin of error. Don't twist your own facts.

 

[JOE]

200M OW? I hope it does, but that's extremely optimistic...

 

[JOE]

I still see it as a copout. $350m is a huge range and margin of error. Don't twist your own facts.

Exactly.

Geico wishes they could offer that kind of insurance.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

200M OW? I hope it does, but that's extremely optimistic...

It's downright crazy... t:

 

[db85usa]

Have you lowered you expectations for the BO?

No, I have been saying $130-$150 million OW for a long time now. This thing is going to surprise people. RottenTomatoes will not decide the outcome of the box office ticket but it is a factor.

I will go as far as saying Monsters U will not knock MoS off the top spot in its 2nd weekend and that's if MoS opens big then we could see MU finishing a close 2nd like MoS $75 million to MU $70 million.

 

[JOE]

No, I have been saying $130-$150 million OW for a long time now. This thing is going to surprise people. RottenTomatoes will not decide the outcome of the box office ticket but it is a factor.

I will go as far as saying Monsters U will not knock MoS off the top spot in its 2nd weekend and that's if MoS opens big then we could see MU finishing a close 2nd like MoS $75 million to MU $70 million.

For MOS to reach huge numbers it will need to be #1 for more than 1 week. I just don't see that happening with the competition it has.

 

[db85usa]

For MoS to score a big 2nd weekend, it will need a high opener or a small drop. A higher opener would be ideal at this point. The length of time from Monsters Inc will still be a factor IMO and there is virtually no buzz. The animated movie that will crush everything in its path is Despicable Me 2.

 

[GreenKToo]

No, I have been saying $130-$150 million OW for a long time now. This thing is going to surprise people. RottenTomatoes will not decide the outcome of the box office ticket but it is a factor.

I will go as far as saying Monsters U will not knock MoS off the top spot in its 2nd weekend and that's if MoS opens big then we could see MU finishing a close 2nd like MoS $75 million to MU $70 million.

Ok kool. I'm a little iffy on my prediction but i'm holding to it. (120 opening.)