Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[JOE]

I cannot wait to see this movie tomorrow night.

 

[GreenKToo]

I cannot wait to see this movie tomorrow night.

Me too. seeing it twice.

 

[db85usa]

Ok kool. I'm a little iffy on my prediction but i'm holding to it. (120 opening.)

I aim pretty high and if I'm wrong, I really could care less. Your prediction may be right or something like $118 million sounds pretty good (no, I'm not changing my projection) but, this is still opening over father's day which should make a big difference. It's been over a month since the last summer blockbuster IM3. MoS fits the mold of summer blockbuster epic and should do well in the BO. Like you have said before, the GA will decide what happens and I think they will see MoS in droves.

We all know it will end up with better results than Batman Begins. I have a feeling that after opening weekend, most of us will be talking about MoS 2 and JL and since I have seen it and am seeing it again tomorrow and on Sunday, I really can't wait for what is planned ahead.

 

[GreenKToo]

I aim pretty high and if I'm wrong, I really could care less. Your prediction may be right or something like $118 million sounds pretty good (no, I'm not changing my projection) but, this is still opening over father's day which should make a big difference. It's been over a month since the last summer blockbuster IM3. MoS fits the mold of summer blockbuster epic and should do well in the BO. Like you have said before, the GA will decide what happens and I think they will see MoS in droves.

We all know it will end up with better results than Batman Begins. I have a feeling that after opening weekend, most of us will be talking about MoS 2 and JL and since I have seen it and am seeing it again tomorrow and on Sunday, I really can't wait for what is planned ahead.

true. Are there any goosebump inducing moments? yes or no will do. you dont have to tell me what in detail.

 

[db85usa]

true. Are there any goosebump inducing moments? yes or no will do. you dont have to tell me what in detail.

Goosebump moments followed by HOLY SH--

 

[Marvin]

No 1 film, DoTM is not really a June release. The first weekend was in July right over the Holiday.

If ASM opened the last tuesday of june and it's weekend fell in july, I'd consider that a june "release" however I don't know how the system works.

That is absolutely stupid. If you're going to throw out a scenario, do one that might actually happen. No studio would release a tentpole film a week after another big film releases. When we say Avengers had no competition, we just mean the films following it weren't very good, it's not like they didn't try to promote the living hell out of Battleship, it just sucked. You know what? TDK didn't face very good competition either after it's release, until a month later when Tropic Thunder knocked it off.

I've said many times(back when it was a hot topic) that TDK also benefited from a lack of comp. 2008 was a gift to any strong film by way of many weak films.

As for my stupid hypothetical. Weather it would happen or not isn't the issue. You implied competition was a non factor. I simply made the objective point that it can be.

I thought all the transformers movies were pure ****, so I can't explain their success other than some people apparently liked them, but I wasn't among them.

The point is that TF3 had a built in audience and built up the international audience, in a year that was otherwise horrible for box office numbers.

Well fortunately for paramount, TF1-2 weren't the franchise killing suck fests the latter Xmen films and various installments were. Either people admit that or they try to swallow the idea that TF3 was actually good.

 

[Marvin]

For MOS to reach huge numbers it will need to be #1 for more than 1 week. I just don't see that happening with the competition it has.

Not necessarily. A variation of the James Cameron crawl could be utilized. If MOS is the hit of an under performing summer, it could have a good steady run.
WB could have picked a better date.

 

[GreenKToo]

Goosebump moments followed by HOLY SH--

Ha. awesome then.

 

[db85usa]

Ha. awesome then.

Your avatar is featured in a pretty cool scene

 

[Iceman]

Indeed. I'm not the biggest nolan but but coming off of TDK and the elusive nature of the product, Inception made a crap ton of non 3D money on his name. Good reviews helped. At the same time his name coming off of Begins into the Prestige didn't help matters much(for all the supposed praise Begins gets).

His name here is a huge wild card imo. Ignoring the sheer amount of people that think this is his film(god bless them). There is an implied idea floating around that this is going to be the continuation of Nolan's universe. Granted WB didn't borrow from marvels tendencies and sell by way of association, but it's still very much implied. From the lighting to the tone in general.

Nolan's brand is pretty remarkable overseas(again see inception), and given that his batman films do relatively better domestically. And given that Superman isn't exactly coming from Marvel(studios) level obscurity...

It makes matters difficult. I will say had Singer not toss his wrench into the brand, this would be far more straight forward.

Yeah all of the above. You've helped confuse my thinking even more. t:

Yup, without SR this would be a totally different scenario being the 1st Superman film in such a long time.

I agree with that, and I think there's a lot of wiggle room, but seeing how Dark Knight Rises made 636M in international, I don't see MoS doing better than that. So it would have to make 364 domestic to reach a billion, so if it opens at 130 it would need a 2.8 multiplier. That's the only scenario it could make 1B and that's if the stars align and a lot of other movies for the final two weeks of June and the 4th of July holiday flop. I just don't see that happening.

The reviews mean a lot to my estimation of MoS's chances as even if they don't have that much direct impact, MoS is not going to cheese its way to $1B like a high numbered Pirates or Transformers sequel. It needs to move people and be highly regarded and is more critic dependant than many other superhero films with the at least semi-serious tone it's going for. And the reviews don't mean that it won't be that kind of film but they're an indicator that it won't be quite as highly regarded as it could have been. I'm still optimistic that I'll love the film but this takes an edge away which is worth 100m-200m worldwide to me making the prospects of $1B seem much further away than they did last week.

 

[Tony Stark]

If ASM opened the last tuesday of june and it's weekend fell in july, I'd consider that a june "release" however I don't know how the system works.

ASM didn't make a billion dollard

I've said many times(back when it was a hot topic) that TDK also benefited from a lack of comp. 2008 was a gift to any strong film by way of many weak films.

As for my stupid hypothetical. Weather it would happen or not isn't the issue. You implied competition was a non factor. I simply made the objective point that it can be.

I've never implied competition was a non factor, I've said the exact opposite which is why I think it's nearly impossible for MoS to reach a billion.

However competition aside, when Avengers opened at 207M, it was going to reach a billion, no matter how much competition. When IM3 opened to $175, with huge internationals, it was going to reach a billion, when The Dark Knight broke records in 2008 with 158M, it was going to reach a billion.

If MoS opens to those kind of numbers then it will probably reach a billion and it will come out of left field, no one will have predicted it.

Well fortunately for paramount, TF1-2 weren't the franchise killing suck fests the latter Xmen films and various installments were. Either people admit that or they try to swallow the idea that TF3 was actually good.

Some people like TF3 that's all you can say, that doesn't make it a good movie necessarily. Same case can be said for movies that don't make a lot of money being necessarily bad.

Sorry but I'm not going to call the racist, sexist, idiotic crapfest that was the transformers franchise good, but that's just my opinion. And there are plenty of people who feel the way I do.

 

[GreenKToo]

the review threads are downright depressing.

 

[Marvin]

ASM didn't make a billion dollard

Never said it did, we were talking about what is considered a june release.

I've never implied competition was a non factor, I've said the exact opposite which is why I think it's nearly impossible for MoS to reach a billion.

However competition aside, when Avengers opened at 207M, it was going to reach a billion, no matter how much competition. When IM3 opened to $175, with huge internationals, it was going to reach a billion, when The Dark Knight broke records in 2008 with 158M, it was going to reach a billion.

If MoS opens to those kind of numbers then it will probably reach a billion and it will come out of left field, no one will have predicted it.

Not every film on the top ten list opens with those kinda numbers.
Internationals are pretty important. Mos is going to have to do ASM internationals with TF domestics. Not the easiest thing in the world.

Some people like TF3 that's all you can say, that doesn't make it a good movie necessarily. Same case can be said for movies that don't make a lot of money being necessarily bad.

Sorry but I'm not going to call the racist, sexist, idiotic crapfest that was the transformers franchise good, but that's just my opinion. And there are plenty of people who feel the way I do.

Lot's of people like all the TF movies, not just consistently, but incrementally. That's all I can say.
Doesn't happen too often for first time franchises, not like that. Whether the film is "good" or "bad" is another matter I suppose. But this idea that it's hated by the is a joke. But I digress.

 

[Liam_H]

However competition aside, when Avengers opened at 207M, it was going to reach a billion, no matter how much competition. When IM3 opened to $175, with huge internationals, it was going to reach a billion, when The Dark Knight broke records in 2008 with 158M, it was going to reach a billion.

Really? It barely passed the mark and it needed re-expansion to do it.

 

[culver3vlr22]

Didn't the highest grossing movie EVER only open to $70+mill?

 

[Liam_H]

Yea but no one here is expecting that type of a run.

 

[ThreadPool]

the review threads are downright depressing.

Indeed. I'm making myself stay out of there. As of right now, I'm waaaay off on my RT%, but the average score is around 7. (I'm right about one thing. Yay. )
I really want to see the movie. Maybe now more than ever. Ugh. This wait is killing me!

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The movie will be a huge disappointment if it only does 77mil opening weekend like Avatar did. I'm still expecting over 100mil opening but the legs are a question mark until I see the film and see what the reactions are to the film.

 

[djingo]

Anybody who's watching this?
http://www.hln.be/hln/nl/945/Film/article/detail/1650011/2013/06/11/Livestream-premiere-Man-of-Steel-in-Londen.dhtml
Belgian online newspaper.

 

[Tony Stark]

Really? It barely passed the mark and it needed re-expansion to do it.

Yeah you're right I stand corrected, but the problem was the film was banned in China, that cost it 200M.

 

[culver3vlr22]

Not at all not during the summer. I'm just saying its crazy to talk final box office takes before the first weekend and even than you can't really judge. I doubt anyone believed that it would go on to be the highest grossing film ever.

I believe $400 is a reasonable take for a reboot. And superman may be the greatest superhero but it's almost not cool to like superman lol

 

[JOE]

Ironic how the top 2 starts to a franchise have both been Spider-Man as far as Worldwide Box Office goes. 820M and 750M. Apparently Supes is going to knock it off it's throne.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm glad the box office predictions have come back down to earth.

 

[J.Howlett]

The midnight numbers should be very interesting.

 

[Liam_H]

I believe around $7-8 million range is good.