Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Autonet]

I'd be more worried about WWZ than MU. I've heard of bunch of people discussing it. I personally have no interest in it since they turned the book into Zombie movie #81237. I still need to see FF6, IM3, and Pacific Rim. No time for Brad Pitt.

 

[ban1o]

There is a buzz surrounding MU? i honestly haven't noticed it....

That said, i agree with you that MOS is facing some competitions the coming weeks, but to be only nr 1 for one week? and MU being the movie that knock it off the 1st place?

That's...sounds to pessimistic to me.

That's not pessimistic. It's realistic. Maybe you haven't heard the buzz, but there is a lot for MU. A lot of my friends want to see it and kids are going to want to see it, especially becasue MOS isn't really appealing to kids. Brave, another Pixar movie with absolutely no buzz still opened to 66 million last year. MU is definitely going to open to at least 70 million, if not more. That's enough to dethrone Man of Steel.

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

I'd be more worried about WWZ than MU. I've heard of bunch of people discussing it. I personally have no interest in it since they turned the book into Zombie movie #81237. I still need to see FF6, IM3, and Pacific Rim. No time for Brad Pitt.

Yup...but those two movies are the onl;y real competition for MOS, right? and maybe that other White house movie?

Anyway on a more personal note, the other movie i'm looking forward to other than MOS is The Heat,that cop movie with Bullock and McCarthy.It's from the director of Bridesmaid

 

[GreenKToo]

I'm not too worried about MU. it will do good tho. And yeah, it should take first place when it comes out, with mos in a close 2nd.

 

[Marvin]

Here's the thing. MU is basically going to open north of 75mill.

If you think MoS is make that much in it's second weekend while both dealing with that brad pitt movie vying for it's audience. Then you are in the camp that thinks MOS is going to be number 1 for two weeks.

Mind you some people here think MOS won't even get 70 in it's first weekend.

 

[Bruce Malone]

That's the risk for this film. It may actually need to open big to counter threats to its legs.

If it opened in august or late july it would have more breathing room to try to succeed on good WOM regardless of a very big OW.

 

[dnno1]

I do. MU is going to be big hit and WWZ's problems don't seem to be affecting its buzz either. Basically, MOS has one shot to make its financial power known. After that, there are too many movies that serve the same audience.

WWARZ is just "I am Legend" with zombies. It's not even tracking as well as MU. I don't see it being a threat at all.

 

[JOE]

60M isn't a possibility.. with this much hype, I think the advanced ticket sales would surpass that... so, even if the movie sucked big time, people would have gone to watch it... the theaters at my place is already half booked...

Why? Because you said so? I don't see your reasoning besides hype. TASM had huge hype, OW was 62M.

You need a solid turnout for 3 days, not just 1 to have a big OW. Like I said, if this movie is not well liked by the critics, some people might skip watching it opening weekend.

 

[Iceman]

Actually, irrespective of Marvel's Avengers, "Iron Man 3" more than likely would have made as much as it did since it was a sequel (the third in a trilogy) and the previous films made progressively more than their predecessors. Furthermore, it was the performance of Robert Downey, Jr. that made both Marvel's "Avengers" and the Iron Man films so successful. He is a true A-List actor and commands a lot of money at the box office. It is not that much a matter of putting together a great team of superheros, but more so a great screenplay and the chemistry of the team of actors (the early Star Wars films outside of Alec Guinness had a cast that was made up of a bunch of unknowns but yet was still had a series of top grossing films). As far as a solo superhero film doing better than a great team film, I honestly believe that "The Dark Knight Rises" would have matched the success of Marvel's "Avengers" had there not been that incident in Denver. To sum it up I don't' think what you say is all together true.

You’re getting confused here. Iron Man 3 only has one previous film that has a predecessor (Iron Man 2) and that didn’t see a big increase on the 1st film, and actually a decrease domestically. I’m not sure whether you’re focusing on domestic or international but it’s wrong either way:

Iron Man: $318 domestic $585m worldwide
Iron Man 2: $312m domestic $624m worldwide
Iron Man 3 (so far): $390m domestic $1.18B worldwide

The 1st 2 films have similar numbers while IM3 blows them away completely. RDJ’s great performances have been a constant throughout all the films while the Avengers link has paid off big style between IM2 & 3.

When I talk about the potential of event films I’m saying it’s easier to create a big event with an ensemble cast of heroes…I don’t mean only comic superheroes. By that I include the likes of the Star Wars & LOTR main group of ally characters as opposed to a film title naming one individual like Batman, Superman or James Bond. So I agree on the point of it being about the chemistry of the team of actors but I believe an ally team has a higher top end than a film mainly about any one lead character.

I disagree on the last point re DKR & Avengers. That event I’m sure had a significant impact on US figures but it didn’t do much to the overseas number & noone’s even claimed an overseas effect as far as I’ve seen. Are you saying DKR could have done an extra $430m domestically if it hadn't happened?

 

[ban1o]

well WWZ is tracking at 40 million. however the tracking sites are often wrong so you can't know for sure. Still if it does make 40 million that is taking viewers away from Man of Steel.

Personally I think MOS will open to 120 million. It will have a 50+% drop second week which will put it at around 60 million, which will put it at second place.

 

[JOE]

That's the risk for this film. It may actually need to open big to counter threats to its legs.

If it opened in august or late july it would have more breathing room to try to succeed on good WOM regardless of a very big OW.

MOS won't have the legs to reach above 700M, there's a lot of movie competition out there. It's not going to take out MU when it comes out.

 

[jacobed]

It'll easily have the legs. There's some competition but they won't be a big deal. It's making a billion. I said it right after the first teaser came out last summer and I'm sticking it to it. Easily reaches a billion

 

[JOE]

It'll easily have the legs. There's some competition but they won't be a big deal. It's making a billion. I said it right after the first teaser came out last summer and I'm sticking it to it. Easily reaches a billion

Easily? Besides the fact that you thought it was really cool/awesome do you have any other reasoning?

 

[John McGuirk]

It'll easily have the legs. There's some competition but they won't be a big deal. It's making a billion. I said it right after the first teaser came out last summer and I'm sticking it to it. Easily reaches a billion

Not easily. I don't think it'll get a billion.

I'm thinking more along $800 mil at best. But I'm expecting a ~$100 mil opening, give or take.

If it exceeds $100 mil? A billion is possible...

You're seriously thinking that Monsters U will bomb (uh, no), and WWZ will bomb (which it might, since I heard it has to make $400 mil to recoup all funds ) and I don't think that's a smart idea.

 

[Liam_H]

Why? Because you said so? I don't see your reasoning besides hype. TASM had huge hype, OW was 62M.

You need a solid turnout for 3 days, not just 1 to have a big OW. Like I said, if this movie is not well liked by the critics, some people might skip watching it opening weekend.

It didn't have a regular 3 day opening. 4th of July.

 

[robot]

Why? Because you said so? I don't see your reasoning besides hype. TASM had huge hype, OW was 62M.

You need a solid turnout for 3 days, not just 1 to have a big OW. Like I said, if this movie is not well liked by the critics, some people might skip watching it opening weekend.

Yes.. because I said so...

And my 'say so' is just as valid as your 'say so'...

 

[metaphysician]

To be clear, we are talking about the MoS sequel here right?
And to be frank, yes.

People are intimidated by the idea that a singular film that isn't some mega Avengers like event can "out earn every WB film ever made". If you look at it objectively, Ironman is a singular film, with a hero a lot less known that Superman. That film has out grossed all WB films in history if not for but one. Now I'm not saying MoS is in any position to out do IM3's totals, that film had a unearned major boost form Joss Whedon and the marvel machine. But the reality is that, that film isn't some big event onto itself. It's just got alot of momentum behind it. People wanted to be a part of the conversation and Marvel even advertised the film with Avengers footage...

Do you honestly think MoS2 won't have massive momentum behind it? Especially when the shameless universe building starts to get rolling. Scenario one, Batman himself shows up in the hotly anticipated sequel(bruce wayne in the trailer). Pretty sure it would have a shot at IM3's title with just that.

All Robinov(or whomever) needed say was something along the lines of: "We have a film here that might be a bigger hit than that (unfriendly to walk in audiences) Harry Potter finale." He may have still been overstating, but given that's what he literally meant, the statement isn't all that hard for me to digest.

WB needs a film that can do Batman numbers domestically and big SkyFall/Inception/HP numbers overseas. A superman franchise with momentum behind it is just the product to do it. It has more of a shot than these Hobbit cash ins.

All of this is irrelevant, since we aren't, or rather, Robinov isn't talking about MoS2. He's talking about MoS, the movie coming out in a week.

 

[Marvin]

It didn't have a regular 3 day opening. 4th of July.

Yea people seem to always lose sight of that simple fact. Condensed 3 days vs 4 to 6 day openings(in the case of ASM) are not comparable.

If I can see a movie on thursday that will take away from me and the rest of us seeing it during the 3 days. That idea alone...

 

[Gavan]

MOS isn't really appealing to kids.

Kids should man up.

Won't World War Z be hurt by being nothing like the book? Unlike say Hunger Games which had the book fans behind it.

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

Yes.. because I said so...

And my 'say so' is just as valid as your 'say so'...

 

[db85usa]

I'm with Robinov on this. I think this film has the potential to reach a billion worldwide if it can stay in theaters for 5 months, 1.3 billion isn't a long shot. I'm leaning towards a strong $135 Mil OW if not a little higher. The fact that it is opening during Father's day is huge and I don't see a lot of people taking that into consideration. As for its second weekend, depending on reviews it could go either way with Monsters U.

 

[Marvin]

I don't think the rest of the summer is all that strong at the outset. Relative to other summers of the past. If MOS has to deal with the likes of Lone Ranger and Pacific Rim and Wolverine, I can see it making a good long run into august.

 

[db85usa]

The thing is, this film will have repeat viewings and Forbes had an article with Superman Returns adjusted for inflation plus 3D I think it said $117 five day opening if I'm not mistaken. Man of Steel should easily outperform this.

 

[psylockolussus]

I don't really see Man of Steel being very successful and breaking records. Its probably going to perform like Fast/Furious 6 but with lower numbers.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I don't really see Man of Steel being very successful and breaking records. Its probably going to perform like Fast/Furious 6 but with lower numbers.

Even Superman Returns made more than Fast and Furious 6 once you adjust SR gross for inflation and 3D.

and I think MOS will destroy SR in ticket sales.