Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Marvin]

So this HAS to make over 100M this weekend to be considered successful?

With a 225 million budget + marketing, I think that might not be enough.

Spoiler

It technically needs ASM's opening and totals actually.
And UNLIKE Returns, it needs to have the audience's favor going forward for the studio to see sense in backing it.

That's the diff between begins and returns, among other things.

 

[MLSkinner]

The studio and the fan community are going to lay all the blame on Snyder and/or Goyer if things don't go according to plan.

It's not right either. It's Nolan's formula. He's to blame and Warner is as well. If WB went straight to Snyder and had his vision from the beginning it would've been different. It was Nolan who invited Snyder to lunch to tell him his version of superman and help him get the project. WB should've had a "Fiege" type person to keep the ego of Nolan in check and to follow a map which would lead to a multi-verse of all their characters. Now, it's messed up.

 

[kvz5]

Were there new projections released today? Why are people lowering their predictions again? Or is it just because of the RT score?

 

[Tony Stark]

Why not blame their bosses? They were the ones who hired them in the first place...

Aside from this, these $200+ Mil OW predictions are outrageous. I have said from the start $130-$150 Mil OW and even that is too high. according to experts and some around here. I think the fact that this is really being pushed for 3D in theaters, it will show this weekend when we get an unofficial BO OW estimate.

But no way this breaks TA OW or let alone IM3. I'd be absolutely stunned if MoS even got $5-$10 million close to IM3's OW. Realistically, it isn't going to happen.

Believe me I blame WB for a lot. I blame them for 20 years of development hell around getting another Superman movie out, then putting trust in the wrong person in Brian Singer, for letting Martin Campbell and company waste 200 million dollars on what should have been the start of another DC tentpole, numerous failed attempts at getting Wonder Woman on the big screen, and having no general plan, other than sticking their finger in the wind, with regards to a DC universe.

I also blame WB for practically deep sixing my cherished childhood memory of Bugs Bunny and Daffy Duck cartoons, only resurrecting them in horrible movies with Brendan Frasier and Michael Jordon.

And I'm also quite sure it's their fault my roof is leaking, but I haven't been able to prove that to the insurance company yet.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Were there new projections released today? Why are people lowering their predictions again? Or is it just because of the RT score?

I think people are just coming off cloud 9, after the marketing blitz (plus early buzz) and realising the movie isn't as bullet-proof as they hoped.

Right now, it probably best if BO predictions are a little tempered. What a difference a day or two can make, huh?

 

[Marvin]

It's not right either. It's Nolan's formula. He's to blame and Warner is as well. If WB went straight to Snyder and had his vision from the beginning it would've been different. It was Nolan who invited Snyder to lunch to tell him his version of superman and help him get the project. WB should've had a "Fiege" type person to keep the ego of Nolan in check and to follow a map which would lead to a multi-verse of all their characters. Now, it's messed up.

All this blame being thrown around for what might be a hit film?

And yes, alot of what people are complaining about does seem to be on a conceptual level, not sure how much of that comes down to Snyder himself.

But still, the film hasn't even opened and we are judging it as a failure based on a fraction of the overall consensus of which itself is mostly positive?
Odd

 

[db85usa]

Believe me I blame WB for a lot. I blame them for 20 years of development hell around getting another Superman movie out, then putting trust in the wrong person in Brian Singer, for letting Martin Campbell and company waste 200 million dollars on what should have been the start of another DC tentpole, numerous failed attempts at getting Wonder Woman on the big screen, and having no general plan, other than sticking their finger in the wind, with regards to a DC universe.

I also blame WB for practically deep sixing my cherished childhood memory of Bugs Bunny and Daffy Duck cartoons, only resurrecting them in horrible movies with Brendan Frasier and Michael Jordon.

And I'm also quite sure it's their fault my roof is leaking, but I haven't been able to prove that to the insurance company yet.

WB definitely needs to shake some things up in terms of their DC/Superhero films. It is quite shameful. GL was horrid but was promising with the whole Martin Campbell/Ryan Reynolds combination until the film came out. WW will probably never see the big screen unless it's a JL film even though she probably rightfully deserves a standalone film as does Flash. I have no idea why that hasn't been developed. Maybe Flash can be DC's Iron Man... I don't know anymore.

 

[UrNuts2]

Believe me I blame WB for a lot. I blame them for 20 years of development hell around getting another Superman movie out, then putting trust in the wrong person in Brian Singer, for letting Martin Campbell and company waste 200 million dollars on what should have been the start of another DC tentpole, numerous failed attempts at getting Wonder Woman on the big screen, and having no general plan, other than sticking their finger in the wind, with regards to a DC universe.

I also blame WB for practically deep sixing my cherished childhood memory of Bugs Bunny and Daffy Duck cartoons, only resurrecting them in horrible movies with Brendan Frasier and Michael Jordon.

And I'm also quite sure it's their fault my roof is leaking, but I haven't been able to prove that to the insurance company yet.

L M F A O ....

this must be the funniest piece of pure gold that i've read on these forums .. makes all the doom the gloom over the past few days almost worth it .. this entire thread has been redeemed

 

[db85usa]

L M F A O ....

this must be the funniest piece of pure gold that i've read on these forums .. makes all the doom the gloom over the past few days almost worth it .. this entire thread has been redeemed

I also blame WB for practically deep sixing my cherished childhood memory of Bugs Bunny and Daffy Duck cartoons, only resurrecting them in horrible movies with Brendan Frasier and Michael Jordon.

And I'm also quite sure it's their fault my roof is leaking, but I haven't been able to prove that to the insurance company yet.

Post of the Year

 

[DKDetective]

Probably, but I find it funny that everyone was talking about how Nolan was going to carry this film, and now that it's taking some heat, it seems like he's being shielded.

I realize that a producers job is very different from a writer or director, but it just seemed strange to me none the less.

Well, if the rumours are true, Nolan tried to hire a bunch of other people before Snyder to direct this and they either turned him down or WB kiboshed the choices. Also, Octoberist and Poni Boy and others reported a rumour from Comic-Con last year that Nolan didn't like the movie when he was screened a rough cut last year. Furthermore, Nolan and Snyder and others have made it clear that Nolan's role was mostly just making a few calls to make the pitch happen and that he was really busy with TDKR's production. Moreover, according to people critical of the movie like Poni Boy, all of the right ideas are there, it is just the execution that fails the film. Execution is the screenwriter and director's jobs.

Yeah, the right ideas are certainly there. You can see the influences of things like Birthright, the Byrne reboot, Last Son, All-Star Superman. For me, at least, that is why this film will be really disappointing if it doesn't make the grade. The potential for a great modern re-interpretation of the character is there. However, I am rather concerned about the "too serious" complaints. All films needs need humour and levity, especially the ones dealing with serious subject matter. Even stories like Birthright aren't 100% serious. They have comedic beats and moments of levity. (Before Superman makes his first appearance, he mutters under his breath something to the effect of "Please don't let me look ridiculous."

 

[Tony Stark]

L M F A O ....

this must be the funniest piece of pure gold that i've read on these forums .. makes all the doom the gloom over the past few days almost worth it .. this entire thread has been redeemed

Thank you! just trying to keep it lighthearted around here.

 

[Tony Stark]

Post of the Year

thanks

 

[sf2]

Wow... people are aligning themselve with the bad critics...
Wonderful.

 

[db85usa]

Also, Octoberist and Poni Boy and others reported a rumour from Comic-Con last year that Nolan didn't like the movie when he was screened a rough cut last year.

That is what it is -- a rumor. If he didn't like it, he could have easily removed his name from the project. At this point, do we call Mr. Nolan a sellout?

No, I don't think so. Do you really think he would put David S. Goyer in a position to fail, or even Zack Snyder? I think he saw something, potential. The box office is a hard knock life. Movies come and go and it is hard to predict which ones will be a success or a fail.

What it could be considered is a gamble by Nolan and it just isn't turning out critically acclaimed like most (fans) hoped it would. Which is fine because if MoS can be rotten yet make TF like $ or HP $, a sequel will be in the making but Snyder/WB would need to strongly consider someone who is a better writer for the sequel.

 

[DKDetective]

That is what it is -- a rumor. If he didn't like it, he could have easily removed his name from the project. At this point, do we call Mr. Nolan a sellout?

No, I don't think so. Do you really think he would put David S. Goyer in a position to fail, or even Zack Snyder? I think he saw something, potential. The box office is a hard knock life. Movies come and go and it is hard to predict which ones will be a success or a fail.

What it could be considered is a gamble by Nolan and it just isn't turning out critically acclaimed like most (fans) hoped it would. Which is fine because if MoS can be rotten yet make TF like $ or HP $, a sequel will be in the making but Snyder/WB would need to strongly consider someone who is a better writer for the sequel.

That's not what I'm saying at all. Just that it seems like Nolan was a relatively hands-off producer who just tried to get the project started and that it is alleged that he did give them negative feedback when it seemed the execution of the otherwise solid ideas/concepts at the heart of the film were ill executed. As a producer, what more can he do?

While Goyer's writing is likely one of film's major failings if the criticism is to be believed, I'm not sure if it is all Goyer's fault. One of the biggest complaints is the excessive action to the detriment of the story. There are quite a few interviews about how things like the Zod/Jor-El fight were just supposed to small little action beats in the script and Snyder turned them into big set pieces.

 

[Liam_H]

So this HAS to make over 100M this weekend to be considered successful?

Nope. Around $80 million OW and $250 domestic total should be the goal. Anything else should be looked as a positive.

 

[ares834]

With a 225 million budget + marketing, I think that might not be enough.

Nah, it should easily be enough. Remember, WB has already made a ton of money off MoS through brand advertisements.

 

[GreenKToo]

Yes, but as a fan, an 80 mill ow would be a HUGE disappointment. I dont know if WB would move forward with only a 250 dom take.
They might. I guess it would depend on the DvD sales and if the public wants more, ( ala BB )

 

[db85usa]

Nope. Around $80 million OW and $250 domestic total should be the goal. Anything else should be looked as a positive.

With the way the board is melting down/RT ratings, that would be a pretty big deal. I still think the buzz factor is there though and $100 mil is sort of spot on but right now it seems like people (particularly this thread and past) are just throwing out mindless predictions. Such as $200 Mil OW.

K...

 

[Liam_H]

Expectations have flown too far off the handle these past few months. $250 million domestic with over $500 million WW should be good.

 

[UrNuts2]

the way i see it, it needs to make at least $40m on Friday if it's going to reach $100m come Sunday .. & that might not be enough to reach $300m domestic after its full run ..

it remains to be seen how the legs will be, but i think it needs close to $200m domestic (if not more) by end next weekend in order to have reach the kinda numbers to ensure a sequel .. but hey, what do i know

 

[Silver Surfer]

If it opens at 80 mill it will be sitting on 3rd place next week.

 

[GreenKToo]

With the way the board is melting down/RT ratings, that would be a pretty big deal. I still think the buzz factor is there though and $100 mil is sort of spot on but right now it seems like people (particularly this thread and past) are just throwing out mindless predictions. Such as $200 Mil OW.

K...

Yeah. a 200 mill opening aint happening no matter how bad some want it to.
I'm at 120 and I think it will be tough to even get that.

 

[db85usa]

Expectations have flown too far off the handle these past few months. $250 million domestic with over $500 million WW should be good.

I think the foreign figure will be higher. If you're right with your prediction, I will never post on SHH! ever again (at least not under this name, lol.)

 

[Liam_H]

Those are just figures of what it should be around to be a success. Not my predictions. I think OW will be around $100 million with $300 domestic finish. While foreign is probably closer to $400 million. So WW around $600-700 million.