The Rise of Skywalker Star Wars IX Box Office Thread

[Lilbaz]

What really sticks out to me:

72% of the american population are white. Sure if they did the same breakdown of viewers in india the results would be slightly different.

 

[spiderman2]

Its going to be interesting to see how the movies legs are. Yes TFA may have been lighting in a bottle but TFA also most people loved and it got people excited for the trilogy and got people to forget about the PT a lot after the PT did a lot of damaged. TLJ on the other hand did a lot of damaged for the franchise and you had people calling it worse star wars movie ever. Even if TFA was like lighting in a bottle star wars should still not drop of this much and they say money talks. I am not sure what is going to happen going foward but there will be changes going foward I am sure. I am not sure what those are. Maybe we get a knights of the old rebulic before a episode 10. Maybe some people get fired. Maybe we get a long break before we get new movies and maybe we get 3 years between movies for a 10-12 trilogy. Maybe the same director does all 3. Maybe we get a episode 10 in a few years but they dont stick with the trilogy idea and instead give us 10-13 or something. I am not sure just got to think Disney will make some chances.

Like i said maybe TFA was lighting in a bottle but TLJ made about 700 million less a big time drop and had bad legs. Solo then came and was the first star wars movie to boxoffice flop. Now after TLJ having made about 30 million less on OW then TFA and also making about 700 million less over on WW in its run we could be looking at TROSW making 45 million less OW then TLJ and maybe having another WW over all drop of in its run of 300 million or so. You can say TFA was a lighting in a bottle but TLJ already had a drop off and now TROSW is looking to drop off again from that. You would think TLJ was the drop off you should expect at worst after TFA but it wasn't. If TROSW makes only about 1 billion you are talking about a 50% drop from TFA and even a little bit more when you factor in 4 years of inflation. No way can you be happy when you have lost half or a little more of your fan base.

 

[Holy Slapper]

72% of the american population are white. Sure if they did the same breakdown of viewers in india the results would be slightly different.

The difference isn't so great with Marvel films.

 

[Stark Bauer]

My prediction

Total domestic gross $450-470 million

total worldwide gross $850-950 million

 

[SSJ4_Haruhi]

Well this is fun. With each new Star Wars release, there has been a downward trend.

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Flops in China, Could Earn Less Than Solo

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

TROS released 5 days after TLJ did. So adjust accordingly. The timing of where/when the money is going to be made will be different even within December. TROS released closer to the 'sponge time' of the holiday when people are off work/school. It will enter sooner and exit sooner than TLJ and TFA the holiday soaking period.* The number on Christmas Eve is gonna take a hit but that's typical though it falls on a 'discount' Tuesday that's not discounted by theaters since they suspended it.

AMC: "Discount Tuesdays are excluded December 24th and December 31st. The savings will return January 7th, 2020!"

* Christmas Day
TFA: Day 8
TLJ: Day 11
TROS: Day 6

 

[Iceman]

Well this is fun. With each new Star Wars release, there has been a downward trend.

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Flops in China, Could Earn Less Than Solo

Feels like SW is pretty much finished in China.

 

[8ulk87]

Just WOW.

Not reaching a billion will be something to talk about.

Imagine if someone told you Joker will outgross SW9 at the beginning of the year.

 

[Iceman]

Just WOW.

Not reaching a billion will be something to talk about.

Imagine if someone told you Joker will outgross SW9 at the beginning of the year.

There could have been a billion dollars between them lol. It’s crazy.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

FWIW per deadline, Disney is saying 175.5 for the weekend. That tracks with BOT’s insider estimates, which saw a good Sunday hold and bumped the initial 173 estimate to 176. BOT’s early Monday read is 28-30. Percentage-wise, the Sunday and Monday drops are in line with what Desolation of Smaug had on the same calendar in 2013.

In any event, bottom line is RoS should comfortably pass 200 today.

 

[superion]

Unbelievable how badly this franchise has fallen. Of the trilogy films Attack of the Clones had the worst previous performance finishing forth in 2002 behind LOR Two Towers, HP Chamber of Secrets and the first Spider-Man. All other trilogy films finished first or second.

This film will finish 9th or 10th in worldwide earnings. At the rate it's collapsing it might not even past Hobbes and Shaw $759 million WW total or whatever the new Jumanji film ends up with.

 

[AcidRain]

At the rate it's collapsing it might not even past Hobbes and Shaw $759 million WW total or whatever the new Jumanji film ends up with.

Lol I think you are over-reacting just a wee bit.

 

[samsnee]

Yeah it’s gonna make a billion.

 

[Iceman]

Unbelievable how badly this franchise has fallen. Of the trilogy films Attack of the Clones had the worst previous performance finishing forth in 2002 behind LOR Two Towers, HP Chamber of Secrets and the first Spider-Man. All other trilogy films finished first or second.

This film will finish 9th or 10th in worldwide earnings. At the rate it's collapsing it might not even past Hobbes and Shaw $759 million WW total or whatever the new Jumanji film ends up with.

This year is the most competitive in history. But that said, you'd always expect a Star Wars Episode film to be near the top. Only Endgame and Lion King should have beaten it.

 

[NHawk19]

Guessing we'll see Rogue 1 numbers for this one.

Maybe a little better because of the Xmas break and lack of competition until February.

 

[Mysteryman]

Whatever the box office results, I would much rather be the the director of TROS than the director of Cat's right now.

 

[Mysteryman]

Any bright spots in the International numbers, records set?

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Whatever the box office results, I would much rather be the the director of TROS than the director of Cat's right now.

Star Wars: At Least We're Not Cats

 

[SomeOldGuy]

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

actual up <$2M over estimate.

 

[8ulk87]

This film will finish 9th or 10th in worldwide earnings. At the rate it's collapsing it might not even past Hobbes and Shaw $759 million WW total or whatever the new Jumanji film ends up with.

Very unlikely. It will pass $800 million with EASE. Im pretty sure it will clear $900 mil as well.

 

[Mysteryman]

Star Wars: At Least We're Not Cats

Star Wars: THANK THE LORD, WE ARE NOT THE BOX-OFFICE DUMPSTER FIRE THAT IS CATS!

 

[dhandler01]

The international numbers are down across the board (it crashed and burned in China) but it should eek out a billion. (because of the holidays). That said there is no way to spin it this is going to under perform.

What is going to kill it will be that a large percentage of the hardcore fans won't go multiple times. Even with it being frontloaded with fan boys flocking early it will didn't have the opening it was expected to. The Cinema Score also isn't a good sign considering who likely got polled...

I liked the film so it kind of sucks. That said Disney's Trilogy is a mess narrative wise so it isn't exactly shocking from the outside.

 

[jmc]

It's going to be a coin toss to hit a billion. Either way, to lose 50% of your box office in the space of 2 movies is something to be greatly concerned about. There's the very real chance Joker makes more than SW this year. Think about that. A film that cost maybe a tenth of what this one did.

 

[Iceman]

The international numbers are down across the board (it crashed and burned in China) but it should eek out a billion. (because of the holidays). That said there is no way to spin it this is going to under perform.

What is going to kill it will be that a large percentage of the hardcore fans won't go multiple times. Even with it being frontloaded with fan boys flocking early it will didn't have the opening it was expected to. The Cinema Score also isn't a good sign considering who likely got polled...

I liked the film so it kind of sucks. That said Disney's Trilogy is a mess narrative wise so it isn't exactly shocking from the outside.

Yeah, repeat viewing is likely to be lower than it could have been.