The Rise of Skywalker Star Wars IX Box Office Thread

[dataSlave]

CBMs are different than SW for all the right reasons. How many different iterations of Batman have we had in the last 40 years that SW has existed? Different universes, different actors portraying the role. Keaton, Kilmer, Clooney, Bale, Affleck, and coming soon Pattinson. How many Luke Skywalkers have we had?

SW is limited and must adapt in order to attract a new generation of filmgoers. CBMs have that built in to their DNA: comic books themselves have always adapted their content to appeal to the audience.

CBMs have the advantage that their source material always embraced alternate story lines and multiple relaunches of the same characters. There is less attachment to a "cannon" because there are already many interpretations of the better known characters. So the audience is already pre-programmed not to be tied to a single narrative. One of the great things about The Mandalorian is the way it introduces completely new characters in the SW universe - referencing the old while not being closely tied to it. That's as close as we can get to a clean sheet of paper while maintaining some continuity with the SW universe.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Early Monday estimate from BOT - 14.25m.

NEW YEAR WEEKDAYS THREAD: Monday 1st Projection Page 1.

That is a 51% drop from last Monday

 

[Prettyricky]

This wont have great legs heading into jan

 

[Infinity9999x]

The prequels were not universally hated or hated by the hardcore fans. They are masterpieces in comparison to the ST. Honestly the PM was a 6.5-7/10 it was above average but not quite at the level of the OT. AOC was mediocre but built on the established lore- 5-6/10. Revenge of the Sith was actually pretty good, 7-8/10. George Lucas would have done a ST light years better than what we got.



The Mandalorian is a masterpiece and is as good if not better than the OT - I am a hardcore Boba Fett fan and it SURPASSED all my expectations which rarely happens in all my life. It’s basically Star Wars + Firefly + Spaghetti Westerns + Terminator 2 + Gremlins + Children Of Men

I’ve come around a lot on the prequels, but if you think hardcore fans didn’t hate them, you’re blatantly ignoring history. The prequels were bashed. They were hated on HARD. Ahmed best considered suicide and the poor man wasn’t even in the Twitter era. They made a documentary about the hate the fans spewed at Lucas. I know people who didn’t even watch the sequels because they said SW was dead to them after the Prequels.

The prequels received massive backlash. Until the past few years, if they were mentioned it was only to take a shot at them. Public opinion has shifted because the kids who grew up with them have aged into adults, and they’re more forgiving of them now. They’re still not great films, but I’m glad people are less harsh on them now.

But they were absolutely hated on. And hardcore fans absolutely hated on them the hardest.

 

[Stark Bauer]

I’ve come around a lot on the prequels, but if you think hardcore fans didn’t hate them, you’re blatantly ignoring history. The prequels were bashed. They were hated on HARD. Ahmed best considered suicide and the poor man wasn’t even in the Twitter era. They made a documentary about the hate the fans spewed at Lucas. I know people who didn’t even watch the sequels because they said SW was dead to them after the Prequels.

The prequels received massive backlash. Until the past few years, if they were mentioned it was only to take a shot at them. Public opinion has shifted because the kids who grew up with them have aged into adults, and they’re more forgiving of them now. They’re still not great films, but I’m glad people are less harsh on them now.

But they were absolutely hated on. And hardcore fans absolutely hated on them the hardest.

your comment is very subjective as there are no clear metrics to determine the degree of hate. Box office and merchandising sales will tell another story.

I watched all three in theatres on opening day - there were no vocal boos or walkouts - unlike during TLJ and ROS. The reception was mostly lukewarm- with Revenge of the Sith having the most positive feedback. The only things that I can recall that were mostly disliked were Jar Jar Binks (which is something of a meme now), Hayden Christensen’s cringey emo acting ability and George Lucas’ sad attempt at writing a romance. Besides that, there are so many positives- Pod Racing, Ewan McGregor as Kenobi, Darth Maul, General Grievous, Palpatine, Mace Windu, Jango Fett, and the soundtracks.

did the actuals come in yet?

 

[Iceman]

I don't think anything in film history received more backlash than the prequels. Many people who worshipped Lucas and never recovered.

I still remember the first time I heard "Ex-squeeze me" and "Yippee".

 

[Infinity9999x]

your comment is very subjective as there are no clear metrics to determine the degree of hate. Box office and merchandising sales will tell another story.

I watched all three in theatres on opening day - there were no vocal boos or walkouts - unlike during TLJ and ROS. The reception was mostly lukewarm- with Revenge of the Sith having the most positive feedback. The only things that I can recall that were mostly disliked were Jar Jar Binks (which is something of a meme now), Hayden Christensen’s cringey emo acting ability and George Lucas’ sad attempt at writing a romance. Besides that, there are so many positives- Pod Racing, Ewan McGregor as Kenobi, Darth Maul, General Grievous, Palpatine, Mace Windu, Jango Fett, and the soundtracks.

did the actuals come in yet?

I saw all the PT in theaters as well. I was 10 during PM and in my teens during the prequels. There were no boos for my viewings, but there have been no boos for any viewings I’ve gone to. When I saw TLJ our audience erupted into cheers multiple times. But anecdotal evidence doesn’t mean much.

That said, I do remember people audibly discussing how they thought Clones sucked as they walked out of the theater. I remember the years of online discourse that did little but crap on how bad Hayden’s acting was, how bad the writing was, how it “didn’t look like Star Wars”, the complaints about how the prequels ruined the best greatest film villain of all time, how George Lucas ruined their childhood etc. All that overblown tripe.

For a solid decade, if you saw the prequels mentioned online, in pop culture, even in other movies, it was to make fun of them. And if they were being nice they might add “the third was okay.”

These movies were dumped on hard for a long, long time. They’ve softened now, but it was ugly for a long time.

 

[Stark Bauer]

I saw all the PT in theaters as well. I was 10 during PM and in my teens during the prequels. There were no boos for my viewings, but there have been no boos for any viewings I’ve gone to. When I saw TLJ our audience erupted into cheers multiple times. But anecdotal evidence doesn’t mean much.

That said, I do remember people audibly discussing how they thought Clones sucked as they walked out of the theater. I remember the years of online discourse that did little but crap on how bad Hayden’s acting was, how bad the writing was, how it “didn’t look like Star Wars”, the complaints about how the prequels ruined the best greatest film villain of all time, how George Lucas ruined their childhood etc. All that overblown tripe.

For a solid decade, if you saw the prequels mentioned online, in pop culture, even in other movies, it was to make fun of them. And if they were being nice they might add “the third was okay.”

These movies were dumped on hard for a long, long time. They’ve softened now, but it was ugly for a long time.

yes I agree that online and offline they were dumped on - especially when compared with the OT - I was one of those people that said if you want to watch the real Star Wars watch the OT not the prequels and not the enhanced editions either but the original theatrical versions. It’s just that in light of the ST even the Prequels look like gold. The boxoffice numbers seem to point that the overall reception to the prequels was lukewarm. ROS in my estimation won’t make a billion.

 

[Agent Orange]

yes I agree that online and offline they were dumped on - especially when compared with the OT - I was one of those people that said if you want to watch the real Star Wars watch the OT not the prequels and not the enhanced editions either but the original theatrical versions. It’s just that in light of the ST even the Prequels look like gold. The boxoffice numbers seem to point that the overall reception to the prequels was lukewarm. ROS in my estimation won’t make a billion.

How old are you? The prequels were absolutely hated. Despised. The only one that performed well at the box office was The Phantom Menace. Attack of the Clones was wrecked by Spider-Man in May 2002. Revenge of the Sith - the birth of Darth Vader - massively underperformed considering the event and pop culture importance of the character.

I cut Star Wars completely out of my life between 2005 and 2011 (when a friend convinced me to watch Clone Wars) after being obsessed for 20+ years. The brand was eviscerated by it's creator.

I'll watch the sequels 10 out of 10 times over those... things. RoS will go over a billion by the end of next week.

 

[Infinity9999x]

yes I agree that online and offline they were dumped on - especially when compared with the OT - I was one of those people that said if you want to watch the real Star Wars watch the OT not the prequels and not the enhanced editions either but the original theatrical versions. It’s just that in light of the ST even the Prequels look like gold. The boxoffice numbers seem to point that the overall reception to the prequels was lukewarm. ROS in my estimation won’t make a billion.

Say what you will about the ST, but the fact that they blow the PT out of the water in terms of box office is beyond debate. They’ve been massively successful. And while I did really enjoy TLJ, I’m not a big fan of the ST as a whole. (I actually think it’s the inverse of the prequels. Prequels: had a solid plan but horrible execution. Sequels: Great execution, no plan.) But there’s no denying how successful the sequels have been money-wise, despite the fact that I think they were lacking.

 

[dhandler01]

Say what you will about the ST, but the fact that they blow the PT out of the water in terms of box office is beyond debate. They’ve been massively successful. And while I did really enjoy TLJ, I’m not a big fan of the ST as a whole. (I actually think it’s the inverse of the prequels. Prequels: had a solid plan but horrible execution. Sequels: Great execution, no plan.) But there’s no denying how successful the sequels have been money-wise, despite the fact that I think they were lacking.

You cant really compare what the ST and PT did at the box office because things arent the same. Adjusted for inflation the only really bad BO performer was AOTC. (well and the laugher that was SOLO) Honestly Rogue One, RTOS and ROS are all about the same at the BO (adjusted obviously) so it isnt like all the Di$ney films are huge massive successes compared to the PT. (I dont remember what IMAX and other premium formats were like back then but I am pretty sure they werent as prevalent as well)

On a personal level, I havent watched the PT since I saw them in the theaters and I wont rewatch any of these either. Even the films I enjoyed just hold no "must watch again" feelings for me. Sad really because if I could watch the OT (non re-release) I would probably once a month. (or at least every time I fly) Every film since Return of the Jedi has been so shallow...lots of cool surface stuff and fan service but no real there there.

edit: dont get me wrong I am not saying the PT were world beaters and the ST is failing...I am saying both have their wins and losses. The highs are super high (TFA and TPM) and the lows are really low. (AOTC and SOLO) the rest all kind of bunch up. Ultimately Lucasfilm is really just not that great all around since the OT. A mixed bag so to speak

 

[Holy Slapper]

did the actuals come in yet?

Previous page already, 72.39 million.

 

[Madam-Shogun]

I’ve come around a lot on the prequels, but if you think hardcore fans didn’t hate them, you’re blatantly ignoring history. The prequels were bashed. They were hated on HARD. Ahmed best considered suicide and the poor man wasn’t even in the Twitter era. They made a documentary about the hate the fans spewed at Lucas. I know people who didn’t even watch the sequels because they said SW was dead to them after the Prequels.

The prequels received massive backlash. Until the past few years, if they were mentioned it was only to take a shot at them. Public opinion has shifted because the kids who grew up with them have aged into adults, and they’re more forgiving of them now. They’re still not great films, but I’m glad people are less harsh on them now.

But they were absolutely hated on. And hardcore fans absolutely hated on them the hardest.

To be fair, I think The Clone Wars cartoons & comics helped a lot as well.

 

[Infinity9999x]

To be fair, I think The Clone Wars cartoons & comics helped a lot as well.

Oh they’ve helped a ton. I quite enjoy the lore that’s been built around the PT.

and @dhandler01 You’re quite right in that we can’t ever truly compare BO eras. Even adjusted for inflation isn’t accurate, because films like Gone With the Wind played in theaters for years, and didn’t have to content with television. Even titanic ran far longer than any film in today’s era would and didn’t have to deal with nearly the same level of piracy. It’s all relative.

And the PT was certainly successful box office wise. But TFA made back half of the 4 billion dollar purchase of Lucasfilm by itself. That’s a massive success, no matter how you swing it. And all the other films except solo have grossed over one billion. The Sequel Trilogy has been a massive financial success.

 

[Iceman]

To be fair, I think The Clone Wars cartoons & comics helped a lot as well.

I love those but they have made me feel even more how much of a missed opportunity the prequels were.

 

[dhandler01]

I tried watching the Clone Wars (my buddy LOVED them) but I just never got into them. I didnt hate them but I just remember watching like 2 episdes and kind of shrugging my shoulders and never watching again. I guess that is also why I have no interest as of yet in The Mandalorian...the more Star Wars that I see out there the less I care.

I fully admit though that I am an outlier on most things.

 

[dhandler01]

Oh they’ve helped a ton. I quite enjoy the lore that’s been built around the PT.

and @dhandler01 You’re quite right in that we can’t ever truly compare BO eras. Even adjusted for inflation isn’t accurate, because films like Gone With the Wind played in theaters for years, and didn’t have to content with television. Even titanic ran far longer than any film in today’s era would and didn’t have to deal with nearly the same level of piracy. It’s all relative.

And the PT was certainly successful box office wise. But TFA made back half of the 4 billion dollar purchase of Lucasfilm by itself. That’s a massive success, no matter how you swing it. And all the other films except solo have grossed over one billion. The Sequel Trilogy has been a massive financial success.

Oh financially it did very well I would never say otherwise. The problem isnt whether it made Di$ney money that was never going to be in doubt. The problem is the more Di$ney puts out there the less it seems to connect with the audience. It is just shedding fans and it is wasting opportunities. Sooner or later it will shed too many and SOLO proved that Star Wars isnt bomb proof anymore. And the ancillaries are way down too...merch hasnt been flying off the shelves the last 3 movies I think I read.

TFA cost $250 million so it made a ridiculous profit (using the accepted 2x the budget for profit it is like $1.5+ billion) but every other movie has had a massive decline in their profits while budgets are exploding. Look at TLJ...$317 million budget and $1.3 million in BO. (roughly $700 million profit) Rogue One had a $200 million budget and a $1.056 million BO. (roughly $600 million profit) SOLO had a budget of $275 million (holy crap are you kidding me) and made less than $350 million. ($200 million LOSS) ROS budget I am guessing will be close to $300 million so if projections hold that it will eek out RO money it is looking at $400 million dollar profit. Now those numbers (outside of SOLO) are obviously still quite good but speaking as someone getting their MBA who teaches business in college right now I can tell you that is a very troubling pattern.

I know it sounds like I am doom and gloom, and I might be buying into the BOT hysteria a bit but the one thing I can say is if the only argument people have for the quality of something is that it makes money (which isnt what you are saying I know) then it is in trouble. We have seen plenty of franchises crash and burn because of that. If the budgets arent kept in check and the profits arent increasing that is a bad combo...ask the Snyderverse. (a franchise I defended because it made money...until it didnt) Or ask Transformers...

I do love this convo though one of the few about these films that isnt turning into a full on flame war. Thank you all

 

[Stark Bauer]

Oh financially it did very well I would never say otherwise. The problem isnt whether it made Di$ney money that was never going to be in doubt. The problem is the more Di$ney puts out there the less it seems to connect with the audience. It is just shedding fans and it is wasting opportunities. Sooner or later it will shed too many and SOLO proved that Star Wars isnt bomb proof anymore. And the ancillaries are way down too...merch hasnt been flying off the shelves the last 3 movies I think I read.

TFA cost $250 million so it made a ridiculous profit (using the accepted 2x the budget for profit it is like $1.5+ billion) but every other movie has had a massive decline in their profits while budgets are exploding. Look at TLJ...$317 million budget and $1.3 million in BO. (roughly $700 million profit) Rogue One had a $200 million budget and a $1.056 million BO. (roughly $600 million profit) SOLO had a budget of $275 million (holy crap are you kidding me) and made less than $350 million. ($200 million LOSS) ROS budget I am guessing will be close to $300 million so if projections hold that it will eek out RO money it is looking at $400 million dollar profit. Now those numbers (outside of SOLO) are obviously still quite good but speaking as someone getting their MBA who teaches business in college right now I can tell you that is a very troubling pattern.

I know it sounds like I am doom and gloom, and I might be buying into the BOT hysteria a bit but the one thing I can say is if the only argument people have for the quality of something is that it makes money (which isnt what you are saying I know) then it is in trouble. We have seen plenty of franchises crash and burn because of that. If the budgets arent kept in check and the profits arent increasing that is a bad combo...ask the Snyderverse. (a franchise I defended because it made money...until it didnt) Or ask Transformers...

I do love this convo though one of the few about these films that isnt turning into a full on flame war. Thank you all

I second this. Most everyone here has been respectful and post intelligent thoughtful responses. SW fans are a of a higher calibre. THIS IS THE WAY

 

[spiderman2]

That is a 51% drop from last Monday

Is that good?

 

[spiderman2]

Frozen 2 opened over here on Christmas day.

Were is that? I thought frozen 2 had already been out ever where.

 

[dhandler01]

Is that good?

It is mediocre...it shows the legs aren't there.

 

[dataSlave]

Oh they’ve helped a ton. I quite enjoy the lore that’s been built around the PT.

and @dhandler01 And the PT was certainly successful box office wise. But TFA made back half of the 4 billion dollar purchase of Lucasfilm by itself. That’s a massive success, no matter how you swing it. And all the other films except solo have grossed over one billion. The Sequel Trilogy has been a massive financial success.

Keep in mind that Disney only gets half the box office. It's >60% in the US but 40% in most overseas territories and 20% in China. That was about $1 billion for TFA then you have to deduct the production budget and marketing costs. Advertising alone is going to add 50% of the production budget to the expense line. You can double the production budget when there are a lot of promotional events that need to be staged globally (like the China promotions for RO). TFA probably produced a $600 million dollar profit for Disney and a like amount for the theaters exhibiting it. That's big in nominal terms but only 12% of the purchase price for Lucas Film, not half.

Applying the same formula shows that TLJ was only marginally profitable, The higher international skew meant Disney's piece was about $620 million. The production budget was stated at $262 million but more like $300 million with re-shoots. Marketing was likely based on the original production budget. I doubt the film made even $150 million for Disney, nothing to write home about. That's a quarter of what TFA did. Because of the high financial leverage in a big budget film, a 35% drop in revenue results in a 75% drop in profit. With that scenario, after market video sales become a much bigger part of the profit picture.

We are looking at RO type revenue numbers for TRoS with a TLJ type budget. If it does $1 billion WW with an even split between domestic and foreign markets, Disney's slice will be just over $500 million. $275 million is the estimated production budget. Even if marketing costs are only 50% of the production budget (a very low number for a blockbuster), TRoS will struggle to make $100 million profit at the box office for Disney. Those are poor numbers on a $5 billion investment. OTOH that's a lot better than losing a ton of money like Solo did.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

The new Monday estimate from BOT is 15.25m.

NEW YEAR WEEKDAYS THREAD: Monday 2nd Projection Page 5.

 

[Dr.]

I doubt [TLJ] made even $150 million for Disney...

According to Deadline, The Last Jedi made $417M in profit for Disney. And The Force Awakens made $923M. Note, though, that these estimates include all revenues (e.g., pay-per-view, DVD, TV broadcast, etc.).

 

[Mjolnir Reborn]

Say what you will about the ST, but the fact that they blow the PT out of the water in terms of box office is beyond debate. They’ve been massively successful. And while I did really enjoy TLJ, I’m not a big fan of the ST as a whole. (I actually think it’s the inverse of the prequels. Prequels: had a solid plan but horrible execution. Sequels: Great execution, no plan.) But there’s no denying how successful the sequels have been money-wise, despite the fact that I think they were lacking.

It would be quite weird if they didn't though, seeing how the all time BO list is completely dominated by post 2000 films. It's probably better to look at how the respective trilogies did compared to other films of their times if one wants to see how the status of the franchise was at these periods (I haven't looked that up myself).

As for the ST being successful money-wise, I think that depends on the perspective. If we're just looking at making money then yes, they've certainly made plenty of money. High level business is mainly about expectations though, and there I'd say that it's only two of the Disney era SW films that can have matched or exceeded expectations, which would be TFA and RO (unsure what they expected of RO). TLJ dropping 35% from TFA is really bad, and Solo losing money is of course even worse. ROS doesn't seem to be turning any tides either.

I don't think Disney is happy with the development of the brand, even though it's making money.