The Rise of Skywalker Star Wars IX Box Office Thread

[dhandler01]

How are the overseas numbers at the moment?

Just a bit under the DOM number...roughly $384 million.

 

[Iceman]

Thanks guys. Feels like this is performing a bit like Rogue One.

 

[Stark Bauer]

The avg per screen dropped below 3k yesterday...on day 12! which is not a great sign. For comparisons sake TFA dropped below 3k on day 18 and TLJ on day 19.. Once it drops to below 1k it will be the death knell...

Again TFA dropped below 1k on day 25 and by that time already made roughly 90% of its total domestic number.
TLJ also dropped below 1k on day 25 and made 93% of its total at that point..

this movie will pump the brakes and will be on its last legs to make its last 7-10% once it reaches that point (of falling under 1k), which I am predicting will be somewhere between day 18-21 - Thursday January 9 at the latest.

I think this movie is falling way faster than most are led to believe and for that reason I am sticking with my initial prediction: ROS is not going to break $500 M domestic and it will fall just short of a billion worldwide


Rise Of The Skywalker
First Prediction (made on December 22)
Domestic 450-470 M
Worldwide 400-480 M
Total 850-950 M

 

[dhandler01]

Thanks guys. Feels like this is performing a bit like Rogue One.

I am not sure it is performing the same way but that is definitely the number it is shooting for at this point.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

 

[spiderman2]

The avg per screen dropped below 3k yesterday...on day 12! which is not a great sign. For comparisons sake TFA dropped below 3k on day 18 and TLJ on day 19.. Once it drops to below 1k it will be the death knell...

Again TFA dropped below 1k on day 25 and by that time already made roughly 90% of its total domestic number.
TLJ also dropped below 1k on day 25 and made 93% of its total at that point..

this movie will pump the brakes and will be on its last legs to make its last 7-10% once it reaches that point (of falling under 1k), which I am predicting will be somewhere between day 18-21.

I think this movie is falling way faster than most are led to believe and for that reason I am sticking with my initial prediction: ROS is not going to break $500 M domestic and it will fall just short of a billion worldwide


Rise Of The Skywalker
First Prediction (made on December 22)
Domestic 450-470 M
Worldwide 400-480 M
Total 850-950 M

Lol its at 815 now will make around 80m betweeen today and sunday to get it right around 900. I know holiday and stuff are gone but its still only weekend 3. Its making a billion.

 

[spiderman2]

815 it should at like worst have another 82 dom left and OS like 78. That would get it to 975. At best it should have like 142 dom and 150 Os that would get it to 1.107 b. I think it will do like in the middle and finish at about 1.04-1.05 billion.

 

[spiderman2]

Also just looked and there are 2 places were the movie comes out in a week or so that combined to make about 13m for TLJ and one place it comes out that didnt get a TLJ release. So that will also give the movie a small boost os.

 

[writer0327]

Clearly SW as currently constructed will never appeal to China, but Lucasfilm has to find a way to appeal to the Chinese with something SW related. Too big a market to ignore. Maybe a giant monster hunter style story set in the SW universe?

 

[DarkKnight88]

The Adventures of Space Worm!

 

[spiderman2]

Making a billion is nothing to celibrate any more when it comes to star wars though even though yes it will make a billion has a billion is not what it used to be any more and its like a 50% drop from TFA. No matter how big a movie in a franchise is you cant be happy with a 50% drop a few movies later.

About China because China is getting bigger and bigger not making money there or very little any way is a bigger and bigger deal has it could be like 300 million or so you are missing out on. With that said i am not sure if China will ever like star war movies. You look at TFA and even has big has it was making 2 billion if China came around on it could have been more like 2.3 billion or something. Then you look at TLJ and the like 1.3 billion it made with a big china number could have been more like 1.6 billion or something.

 

[Limonade]

W00t! W00t! Looks like I may have pegged the domestic and overall WW gross.

 

[Stark Bauer]

I am raising my prediction by +49 million.

Revised Prediction
Domestic $475-499 M
Worldwide $470-500 M
Total $945-999 M

The Adventures of Space Worm!

That’s more Japanese

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[SomeOldGuy]

 

[spiderman2]

Should be very close to 900 by the end of the weekend then maybe a little bit more. Should be looking at 30 dom this weekend and os numbers are a little better the dom numbers. 30 in both would get it to 900.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Should be very close to 900 by the end of the weekend then maybe a little bit more. Should be looking at 30 dom this weekend and os numbers are a little better the dom numbers. 30 in both would get it to 900.

It may get 30 this weekend. But maybe not. It dropped 70% from last Thursday

 

[spiderman2]

It’s not getting 30 this weekend. It dropped 70% from last Thursday

Most predictions have been saying like 30-35 million and even if it is a little lower then 30 the OS market could make up that difference. So even if it does like 28 os could be like 32 or something.

 

[Smurphftw]

After this weekend it will be a slow crawl to a billion I think, but not much beyond that.

 

[The Caped Knight]

Its an accomplishment that despite negative reviews, it made a successful run profit margin wise. Last Jedi did a lot of damage to the core foundation of Star Wars and yet I found Rise of Skywalker a return to a familor style although rushed it did the best it could to wrap up a 40 year saga for the legacy characters of Star Wars. The brand will continue for a brand new generation with new stories and characters but it won't be the same as the original trilogy.

 

[8ulk87]

$950 mil WW is pretty much a guarantee at this point.

$975-1025 mil final total.

 

[scarlet-witch]

I think it gets to 1B easy even with it being so unsatisfying. It's not like it has a ton of competition coming up. 1917 is probably the next thing that knocks it off the top spot.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

11 for Friday. Looks like it should end the weekend (and the holiday portion of its run) right around 450 domestic.

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Friday January 3, 2020

 

[Iceman]

Clearly SW as currently constructed will never appeal to China, but Lucasfilm has to find a way to appeal to the Chinese with something SW related. Too big a market to ignore. Maybe a giant monster hunter style story set in the SW universe?

That would appeal to me too.

 

[Stark Bauer]

$950 mil WW is pretty much a guarantee at this point.

$975-1025 mil final total.

I concur. Except it won’t make it to a billion Worldwide

After this weekend it will be a slow crawl to a billion I think, but not much beyond that.

Monday will see the steepest drop. I’m guessing 60% to as much as 80% or 3-6 million domestic for Monday January 6.