The Rise of Skywalker Star Wars IX Box Office Thread

[Warlock]

‪‪‪‪I would sure like to hear a positive spin on this.

 

[Cattywompus]

‪‪‪‪I would sure like to hear a positive spin on this.

View attachment 27790

How can we forget that big 2nd weekend drop The Last Jedi had ? It was fan interest that helped The Last Jedi make $1 Billion by its 3rd weekend & after its 3rd weekend it was down hill from there. Good reviews mean nothing in the grand scheme of things for this

 

[Warlock]

How can we forget that big 2nd weekend drop The Last Jedi had ? It was fan interest that helped The Last Jedi make $1 Billion by its 3rd weekend & after its 3rd weekend it was down hill from there. Good reviews mean nothing in the grand scheme of things for this

Wow, that's an amazing stat. Biggest 2nd week drop ever? Crazy.

 

[Cattywompus]

If Box Office is what makes a movie popular & beloved. Is Transforemrs: Age Of Extinction a beloved popular movie just because it made $1 Billion ?

 

[Lilbaz]

Well i do think it's had maybe some impact on possible a small portion of fans, but not to the point where an entire theme park is "failing" as clickbait youtubers like to put it. Once December rolls around, and if TROS is loved by all fans, the entire dialogue will shift once again I'm sure as it always does. the Internet tends to blow these things massively out of proportion. Like the other day when someone on reddit tried to tell me TROS is going to be a box office bomb making less than a billion. Oh yes, the conclusion to a 40+ year saga is gonna fail dramatically pffft. and unless I see direct proof that TLJ is responsible for the downfall of an entire theme park, I just can't see that as the sole reason.

For many people the conclusion was tlj and the death of luke, they have little interest anymore.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

After Star Wars Rebels made to four seasons, Star Wars Resistance is tapping out at two. Interest is down. That, and Senior VP Kiri Hart who was one of the forces behind that show getting made have been gone since at least early this year.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Hi Magnar, I think another Google Trends graph of Star Wars interest over the last 5 years might be interesting about now. I had a quick look and people seem remarkably disinterested in Star Wars right about now, and the last couple of years since TLJ.

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2012-10-30 2019-08-17&q=/m/06mmr (download detailed CSV by clicking arrow pointing down to line)
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2012-10-30 2019-08-17&geo=US&q=/m/06mmr (download detailed CSV by clicking arrow pointing down to line)

I calculated the average between April (when they drop the teaser trailers) and the present time as it's a good summation of the effect of the early marketing having begun in earnest. The numbers should go up October-December, the question is how much from the floor.

The big year that was 2016 also correlates to that being the peak of Disney SW merchandise sales since their earnings reports have done nothing but report declines for SW in particular merch sales.

I think SW:TROS will be heavier on the domestic side this time than TLJ. Each movie since TFA has become more domestic heavy. And Google Trends indicates foreign audiences are lagging behind domestic in interest for Star Wars even more this year.

"Episode" domestic / foreign
SW:TFA (2015) 45.3% / 54.7%
SW:TLJ (2017) 46.5% / 53.5%
SW:TROS (2019) TBD / TBD

"A Star Wars Story" domestic / foreign
RO:ASWS (2016) 50.4% / 49.6%
S:ASWS (2018) 54.4% / 45.6%

 

[Warlock]

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2012-10-30 2019-08-17&q=/m/06mmr (download detailed CSV by clicking arrow pointing down to line)
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2012-10-30 2019-08-17&geo=US&q=/m/06mmr (download detailed CSV by clicking arrow pointing down to line)

I calculated the average between April (when they drop the teaser trailers) and the present time as it's a good summation of the effect of the early marketing having begun in earnest. The numbers should go up October-December, the question is how much from the floor.

The big year that was 2016 also correlates to that being the peak of Disney SW merchandise sales since their earnings reports have done nothing but report declines for SW in particular merch sales.

I think SW:TROS will be heavier on the domestic side this time than TLJ. Each movie since TFA has become more domestic heavy. And Google Trends indicates foreign audiences are lagging behind domestic in interest for Star Wars even more this year.

"Episode" domestic / foreign
SW:TFA (2015) 45.3% / 54.7%
SW:TLJ (2017) 46.5% / 53.5%
SW:TROS (2019) TBD / TBD

"A Star Wars Story" domestic / foreign
RO:ASWS (2016) 50.4% / 49.6%
S:ASWS (2018) 54.4% / 45.6%

So according to that data, interest in Star Wars is lower now, than two years BEFORE TFA came out. You wouldn't think that would be the case, if people were hyped/excited and enjoyed the new trilogy.

 

[Warlock]

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2012-10-30 2019-08-17&q=/m/06mmr (download detailed CSV by clicking arrow pointing down to line)
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2012-10-30 2019-08-17&geo=US&q=/m/06mmr (download detailed CSV by clicking arrow pointing down to line)

I calculated the average between April (when they drop the teaser trailers) and the present time as it's a good summation of the effect of the early marketing having begun in earnest. The numbers should go up October-December, the question is how much from the floor.

The big year that was 2016 also correlates to that being the peak of Disney SW merchandise sales since their earnings reports have done nothing but report declines for SW in particular merch sales.

I think SW:TROS will be heavier on the domestic side this time than TLJ. Each movie since TFA has become more domestic heavy. And Google Trends indicates foreign audiences are lagging behind domestic in interest for Star Wars even more this year.

"Episode" domestic / foreign
SW:TFA (2015) 45.3% / 54.7%
SW:TLJ (2017) 46.5% / 53.5%
SW:TROS (2019) TBD / TBD

"A Star Wars Story" domestic / foreign
RO:ASWS (2016) 50.4% / 49.6%
S:ASWS (2018) 54.4% / 45.6%

Interest in Star Wars, according to google trends, is lower now than at ANY point in the last five years. But then again, maybe all the people that like star wars decided to stop using google and use bing, yahoo or duckduckgo etc?

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Before Kedoo shut down their analytics in July it showed people weren't watching the official SW Youtube channel as much anymore. The rate of new subscriptions slowed but not stopped but views trending downwards, the spikes for the teasers less each time.

Snapshot: May 2019

 

[Warlock]

Before Kedoo shut down their analytics in July it showed people weren't watching the official SW Youtube channel as much anymore. The rate of new subscriptions slowed but not stopped but views trending downwards, the spikes for the teasers less each time.

Snapshot: May 2019

That correlates well with the google analysis. But Gothamknight will be here soon to tell us why this data is outweighed by his anecdotes regarding his brother and friends.

 

[Smurphftw]

‪‪‪‪I would sure like to hear a positive spin on this.

View attachment 27790

I would be curious to know what this graph would look like during the prequel era. I would assume interest in Star Wars was much higher before The Phantom Menace than it was before Revenge of the Sith.

 

[jmc]

I could kinda see that, but the difference is that TROS looks like it was designed to be proper course correction (We're bringing back the Emperor and the Death Star!!) While Justice League was...Just a complete mess of a production and people weren't onboard with the way the film was shaping up. It didn't have support from the GA due to BvS, it didn't have real support from the DCEU fans because of the Snyder firing / Whedon reshoots and in general, it was just an awful looking movie. TROS looks good, so while it may not outgross TLJ, it will probably review well, be fun and make enough money over the holiday season. Although, I am curious about how "safe" Abrams is going with this one, based on some of the things he's said.

I guess we have to consider the Jumanji 3 factor as well.

Here's the thing that's frankly annoying me, and I'm not singling anyone in particular out here, but the thing I've noticed from people who think there's nothing wrong with Star Wars is there's an unwillingness to even entertain the idea that TLJ did do damage to the brand. It's not just the debate about the films quality, it's the fact the film left very little for people to talk about for 2 years.

All of this is anecdotal of course, but for every person who I know was ok with TLJ, I've come across at least 3 who thought it wasn't good, or who were indifferent to it. The reaction I've seen online mirrors this. People can crow about the critics and the box office all they want, what matters is what people think afterwards, and for the last 18 months there's been little discussion about Star Wars. We are what, 4 months away, and this part of the forum is more or less dead silent. Before TFA and TLJ came out there was excitement for months. Now, it's crickets. If us, the ones who are charged with helping drum up hype, are no longer talking about Star Wars to the degree we once were, then there's a good chance the casual viewers aren't really invested either. That's a problem, and one that I don't think people who say everything is ok are paying attention to. The talk around SW at the moment, is at best, indifference, because there is no hook for this movie. I can say what the hook is for Endgame, for John Wick Chapter 4, for The Dark Knight Rises, for the third LOTR film, the last Harry Potter movie, for Return of the Jedi, for Revenge of the Sith, the list goes on. I cannot say what the hook is for Episode 9.

 

[Smurphftw]

Here's the thing that's frankly annoying me, and I'm not singling anyone in particular out here, but the thing I've noticed from people who think there's nothing wrong with Star Wars is there's an unwillingness to even entertain the idea that TLJ did do damage to the brand. It's not just the debate about the films quality, it's the fact the film left very little for people to talk about for 2 years.

All of this is anecdotal of course, but for every person who I know was ok with TLJ, I've come across at least 3 who thought it wasn't good, or who were indifferent to it. The reaction I've seen online mirrors this. People can crow about the critics and the box office all they want, what matters is what people think afterwards, and for the last 18 months there's been little discussion about Star Wars. We are what, 4 months away, and this part of the forum is more or less dead silent. Before TFA and TLJ came out there was excitement for months. Now, it's crickets. If us, the ones who are charged with helping drum up hype, are no longer talking about Star Wars to the degree we once were, then there's a good chance the casual viewers aren't really invested either. That's a problem, and one that I don't think people who say everything is ok are paying attention to. The talk around SW at the moment, is at best, indifference, because there is no hook for this movie. I can say what the hook is for Endgame, for John Wick Chapter 4, for The Dark Knight Rises, for the third LOTR film, the last Harry Potter movie, for Return of the Jedi, for Revenge of the Sith, the list goes on. I cannot say what the hook is for Episode 9.

Just off the top of my head, here are some of the "hooks" for Rise of Slywalker.

1. What is meant exactly by "Rise of Skywalker"?

2. What will Palpatine's role be in the movie?

3. What is Luke's role going to be? Force Ghost? Flashbacks? Clone resurrection? Never actually died?

4. How much, if anything will J.J. "fix", or retcon from TLJ?

5. And of course the most obvious one, how is the story going to end?(duh). Will it wrap up the entire 9 film saga satisfactorily and how will it launch Star Wars going forward into the future?

There ar many other hooks for me personally, but those are the ones that immediately sprang to mind.

For the record, I believe that TLJ did so SOME damage to the brand, I'm just highly, highly skeptical of the notion that the damage done was PERMANENT and irreversible.

I also believe that incessant hate from a certain section of the fanbase has done FAR more damage to the brand than anything Rian Johnson did or could possibly ever do. /end mini rant

 

[jmc]

Do you not see the pattern with those idea? They have nothing to do with the story from TLJ. All of those ideas are after the fact. No one walked out of the theatre thinking what Luke's role would be, because the film for all intense and purposes killed him off. And also notice another thing, not one of your suggestions relates to any of the new characters. That's a problem. There is nothing enticing from where the Last Jedi left off. The only hook left is literally good guys verses bad guys.

 

[Smurphftw]

Do you not see the pattern with those idea? They have nothing to do with the story from TLJ. All of those ideas are after the fact. No one walked out of the theatre thinking what Luke's role would be, because the film for all intense and purposes killed him off. And also notice another thing, not one of your suggestions relates to any of the new characters. That's a problem. There is nothing enticing from where the Last Jedi left off. The only hook left is literally good guys verses bad guys.

I have questions about the new characters, especially Rey. I just didn't feel like listing ALL of them. I thought 5 hooks should be plenty. Just because you don't find them acceptable because reasons or something, doesn't mean I should have to keep listing them until you find one that is. I have a feeling a could list over 50 and you would say those don't count because ... Rian Johnson/Kathleen Kennedy/Disney Star Wars.

Many of the new character questions fall into number 4. Rey's parentage for example. Was Kylo lying? Not telling the whole story? Rey gonna form a Jedi Order? Are they gonna still be called Jedi or something else? How are they going to rebuild the Resistance?

Still not good enough? Too bad. Not gonna list them all.

 

[jmc]

They don't count because they're not questions TLJ left viewers asking. Infinity War left audiences asking a very simple question - 'How do they reverse what Thanos did and get everyone back?'. The Dark Knight left audiences asking a very simple question - 'What does Batman do now that he's on the run from the law?'. John Wick 2 asked a very simple question 'How does John Wick survive now the whole world is coming after him? These are hooks to generate discussion for people as they walk out of the cinema, and if they are done right, are conversations that people will continue with for months or years until the answers are given.

'Was Kylo lying?' is not a hook, because Rey herself answered the question within the film - 'they were nobody'. There's no reasons to doubt that question because it's already been answered. 'Is Rey going to form a Jedi Order?' - that question was never asked within the movie in the first place because there was no indication that was what she was planning to do. 'Are they still going to be called the Jedi?', again, a question not asked nor one that's going to generate any discussion of worth. The hook is something the film has to leave in your mind as you walk out of the theatre, it's not something you impose upon the film.

 

[Lilbaz]

I would be curious to know what this graph would look like during the prequel era. I would assume interest in Star Wars was much higher before The Phantom Menace than it was before Revenge of the Sith.

Everyone wanted to see anikin become vader. That was the whole point of the prequel trilogy.
What do we want to see in rise? Rey beating kylo? Done. Snoke being defeated? Done. The empire being defeated? Done 30 years ago.

 

[Gothamsknight]

Everyone wanted to see anikin become vader. That was the whole point of the prequel trilogy.
What do we want to see in rise? Rey beating kylo? Done. Snoke being defeated? Done. The empire being defeated? Done 30 years ago.

Have you literally been ignoring all the leaks for episode IX oooor? Because it's literally shaping up to be

Spoiler

That palpatine has been behind things this whole time. Something a lot of fans think makes sense.

I swear, the detractors continue to try to speak for everybody on this subject. And not only that, but I highly agree that toxic nature from a part of the fanbase has done more damage to the brand than any film ever could. People know star wars fans are whiny ******** that hate anything outside of the OT. If the OT was released today, people would be complaining about everything in ESB. It's sickening hearing some of the fans say "they should so this or this" when in reality, star wars fans don't know what they want at all. I give a lot of credit to anybody who makes a star wars film, because no matter what you're gonna get s*** on. I guarantee episode IX is going to be a satisfying and people will still complain all because Luke Skywalker didn't get to go Dragonball z on the first order. almost as if all fans This want is pure lightsaber fights with no story. This is a tired argument and it's what's really driving people away

 

[Lilbaz]

Have you literally been ignoring all the leaks for episode IX oooor? Because it's literally shaping up to be

Spoiler

That palpatine has been behind things this whole time. Something a lot of fans think makes sense.

I swear, the detractors continue to try to speak for everybody on this subject. And not only that, but I highly agree that toxic nature from a part of the fanbase has done more damage to the brand than any film ever could. People know star wars fans are whiny ******** that hate anything outside of the OT. If the OT was released today, people would be complaining about everything in ESB. It's sickening hearing some of the fans say "they should so this or this" when in reality, star wars fans don't know what they want at all. I give a lot of credit to anybody who makes a star wars film, because no matter what you're gonna get s*** on. I guarantee episode IX is going to be a satisfying and people will still complain all because Luke Skywalker didn't get to go Dragonball z on the first order. almost as if all fans This want is pure lightsaber fights with no story. This is a tired argument and it's what's really driving people away

If that leak is true it makes me want to see it even less. Is just stupid.

Also if the film has to rely on leaks for people to want to watch it something is wrong.

 

[Gothamsknight]

Spoiler

Palpatine storing sith troopers out in the unknown regions only for them to be awakened for the time of his rebirth contingency plan sounds amazing to me. Kylo thinking they work for him when really they don't adds a lot of tension that I think will work. As does palpatines spirit using bodies as vessels.

.

And it's not just the leaks getting people hyped, the teaser did that alone for a lot of people. It got more views than the TFA teaser and TLJ teaser.

The marketing for this film hasn't even begun yet. We still got a full length trailer dropping in October.

 

[Mjolnir Reborn]

The leak seems like just another step in taking away from the climax of the OT.

Spoiler

It's not enough that they had to resurrect the exact same conflict as was in the OT, with the sides just changing names, throwing in a new copy of Luke, etc. Now Anakin's sacrifice and redemption might not even have ended Sidious, and it already has shown that saving Luke just resulted in nothing since he suddenly started acting completely contrary to his core traits and Anakin, Obi-Wan and Yoda apparently just gave up on him and stopped supporting his work to restore the Jedi.

I can't wait until Star Wars actually does something new that doesn't just involve standing on the OT and cheapening it. The Mandalorian seems like the only hope at the moment.

 

[Lilbaz]

The leak seems like just another step in taking away from the climax of the OT.

Spoiler

It's not enough that they had to resurrect the exact same conflict as was in the OT, with the sides just changing names, throwing in a new copy of Luke, etc. Now Anakin's sacrifice and redemption might not even have ended Sidious, and it already has shown that saving Luke just resulted in nothing since he suddenly started acting completely contrary to his core traits and Anakin, Obi-Wan and Yoda apparently just gave up on him and stopped supporting his work to restore the Jedi.

I can't wait until Star Wars actually does something new that doesn't just involve standing on the OT and cheapening it. The Mandalorian seems like the only hope at the moment.

Thought rogue one did ok.

 

[jmc]

Have you literally been ignoring all the leaks for episode IX oooor? Because it's literally shaping up to be

Spoiler

That palpatine has been behind things this whole time. Something a lot of fans think makes sense.

I swear, the detractors continue to try to speak for everybody on this subject. And not only that, but I highly agree that toxic nature from a part of the fanbase has done more damage to the brand than any film ever could. People know star wars fans are whiny ******** that hate anything outside of the OT. If the OT was released today, people would be complaining about everything in ESB. It's sickening hearing some of the fans say "they should so this or this" when in reality, star wars fans don't know what they want at all. I give a lot of credit to anybody who makes a star wars film, because no matter what you're gonna get s*** on. I guarantee episode IX is going to be a satisfying and people will still complain all because Luke Skywalker didn't get to go Dragonball z on the first order. almost as if all fans This want is pure lightsaber fights with no story. This is a tired argument and it's what's really driving people away

The decline of Star Wars has nothing to do with the fans, it's got everything to do with the people who run the franchise now and the creative decisions they've taken. Who the hell makes a Star Wars theme park with none of the original trilogy characters or scenes from the movie? What idiot at Disney thought that was a good idea? Look at the figures and graphs that have been posted the last few pages. Hell, we just had Resistance unceremoniously canceled after just 2 seasons. A show geared towards kids. I'm not sure why the denial about the state of the franchise even exists, because the trends downward have been pretty clear for the last 18 months. You can't start shifting blame to fans, they are the one who keep franchises like this alive.

 

[Frodo]

The reality is SW, like Bond, is an old franchise . It still makes money. and is beloved ,but it is an old franchise. That's demonstrated by the reality that most of the SW fan civil war is between middle aged and thirty somethings on both sides who were kids in the 70s through the 90s.

I think if there's any decline in SW it has less to do with a polarized fanbase ,and more to do with the fact that SW is something that's been passed down over 40 years to the children of today as opposed to the MCU in which was made for the children and teens of today.


The MCU is very much this generation's SW saga. That's not to say SW isn't popular , and won't make a fortune, but it means that it may not be considered the be all and end all to children who literally grew up with the MCU films .