The Rise of Skywalker Star Wars IX Box Office Thread

[spiderman2]

I think not beating TLJ would be disappointing. I expect it to be somewhere between TLJ and TFA (not exactly a bold claim as that so a big old spread haha).

Yeah there is about a 700 million spread between TFA and TLJ so that is a big decline and if this does like right in between those that would be a good rebound. If it makes less then TLJ that would not be good going foward for the future of star wars. TLJ had much worse legs then TFA to. TFA had crazy legs and for a December movie TLJ had bad legs. 3.78 compared to 2.82 and when you factor in how big TFA open weekend was its legs are even more crazy. If TLJ had been more in the middle 3.78 and 2.82 legs like say 3.3 it would have had made 726 USA instead of its 620 it made. So that is 106 millin more and that would then put its WW told at 1.44 billion with out factoring the fact its OS numbers could have been better to with out a big drop of from week to week. With better reception i think 1.6 for TLJ could have happend.

 

[Warlock]

Yeah there is about a 700 million spread between TFA and TLJ so that is a big decline and if this does like right in between those that would be a good rebound. If it makes less then TLJ that would not be good going foward for the future of star wars. TLJ had much worse legs then TFA to. TFA had crazy legs and for a December movie TLJ had bad legs. 3.78 compared to 2.82 and when you factor in how big TFA open weekend was its legs are even more crazy. If TLJ had been more in the middle 3.78 and 2.82 legs like say 3.3 it would have had made 726 USA instead of its 620 it made. So that is 106 millin more and that would then put its WW told at 1.44 billion with out factoring the fact its OS numbers could have been better to with out a big drop of from week to week. With better reception i think 1.6 for TLJ could have happend.

I think it will do between 1 and 1.2 Billion, I think the interest just isn't there, looking at trailer youtube views, google trends and my local theatre only has the Thursday night premier and the Sat night 9pm show sold out. That's it, seats available in every other show. We will have a better idea after the second weekend drop.

 

[Chesterfield]

Ironically from a business/bottom line perspective the worst case outcome is this film making a $Billion. Let's not even entertain this making anything less than tgat because it's nitvgoibg to happen no matter how awful TLJ was or how much if a failure solo was.

With the goodwill of the brand in a fractured state the worst possible outcome is something they'd be blessed to get. A lot of the fan base are pissed understandably but the it's still Star Wars and it's supposedly the last movie for a good few years and ties up the Skywalker saga. This film is making well over a $Billion easily.

 

[ObiWanCon]

Star Wars Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker

Opening Weekend US Box Office = $175 Million - $200 Million
Overall US Box Office = $500 Million - $600 Million
Overall International Box Office = $600 Million - $700 Million
Overall World Wide Box Office = $1.1 Billion - $1.3 Billion

 

[Mysteryman]

How does that possible estimate compare to TLJ?

 

[Zorro]

What's the latest on tracking numbers for prerelease ticket sales?

 

[spiderman2]

Ironically from a business/bottom line perspective the worst case outcome is this film making a $Billion. Let's not even entertain this making anything less than tgat because it's nitvgoibg to happen no matter how awful TLJ was or how much if a failure solo was.

With the goodwill of the brand in a fractured state the worst possible outcome is something they'd be blessed to get. A lot of the fan base are pissed understandably but the it's still Star Wars and it's supposedly the last movie for a good few years and ties up the Skywalker saga. This film is making well over a $Billion easily.

Yeah if it is only like right at about a billion we have some serious issues. That would be like a 50% drop compared to TFA and that is not even taking into account the 4 years of inflation and it would be 2 movies in a row with a drop off and TLJ was already a really big drop off from TFA dont want to see a drop off again.

 

[spiderman2]

You known this is a kind of movie where i am not sure how much reviews will make of a difference. Granted there is no like for sure way to say if a movie is 50 on RT it would have made this much were if it was say a 90 it would have made this much instead kind of thing. But the big reason i am not sure how much reviews will matter is because TLJ critics loved but fans did not. If i had never seen TLJ RT score after hearing the complaints towards the movie i would have thought the movie was more like a 40 then the like 90-91 it is. It really is a movie that fans and critics didnt see eye to eye on and i kind of fell like not only did TLJ turn a lot of people away but because critics loved TLJ but fans didnt i think a lot of fans are not going to trust the critics on this movie now even if the movie gets like a 98 RT score.

 

[Smurphftw]

I never thought I would say this but, it could struggle to crack a billion now. I think RT scores still matter somewhat, especially low ones.

 

[MadVillainy]

IT won't struggle to crack a billion. It's still a Star Wars episode

 

[Spider-Fan]

It's going to make a billion. But it may see similar BO as TLJ or lower if the reception from the audience is in line with the RT score. That said, bad or middling RT score didn't prevent people from liking Aladdin and The Lion King this year. So maybe people will love it.

For the record, I thought Aladdin was okay and disliked The Lion King

 

[Shadow Moses]

It will come under 1 billion. There's too much negativity in the air.

 

[Detective Conan]

Whether or not it makes a billion, I’m still convinced this will be the lowest grossing Sequel trilogy film by far. Unless there’s such a sharp divide between critics and audiences that audiences end up giving this movie stronger repeat business than either of the previous films in this trilogy.

 

[MadVillainy]

I always thought it was going to be the lowest grossing, but it will for sure make at least a billion

 

[HammerDown]

I voted 1B to 1.2B a while back and i'm confident on that prediction.
I don't see it making more than TLJ. It could perform much worse too.

 

[Tony Stark]

under 1.5 B. It will for sure be severely disappointing numbers.

 

[Webhead38]

I want to see what it does for midnight shows before I start worrying about lifetime grosses. $40 million would probably put it at about $180 million for the weekend. If it carves out closer to $45 then I think we have a weekend tally closer to $200 million. I think the cinema score is going to factor big in this as well. Until we start getting those figures its impossible to look much further down the road. Its no longer brand proof.

 

[Iceman]

I wasn’t expecting the reviews to be this mixed. I might have to cut a couple of hundred million off my worldwide expectations.

 

[Mr. Peanut]

I'm pretty sure it will be recieved much better by regular viewers than TLJ was. Critics and regular viewers look for different things in a movie. RoS might be a bad movie, but it's a movie that'll appeal much more to general audiences than TLJ did. It has spectacle and fanservice instead of cynicism and walrus-milking...regular Joes are going to want to see it.

So I'm expecting it to make at least as much as TLJ made, though still not as much as it would have made if TLJ had captivated audiences as much as TFA did.

 

[Webhead38]

Overseas numbers are down measurably from TLJ. And I'm not seeing any indication from crowd reports that audiences were buzzing after the film last night. Appears to be a very polarizing movie. We're in uncharted territory for Star Wars. If domestic business has to do all the heavy lifting, then it has to over-perform to make up for those losses. I have a feeling this is going to be a very chaotic weekend with many highs and lows as we try to figure out where this train is headed.I fully expect the audience score of RT to be in the 90's or high 80's when it comes out. I think that will be the resource for those who love it to chime in to build momentum. It would be odd to see anything different.

 

[Delwin]

I would expect that GA will like it more that TLJ in general but TLJ hurt the franchise too much. TFA used as much of the nostalgia and fanbase as it could while after TLJ it is no longer the case.

 

[ironman_rick]

I am pretty sure this will clear a billion easily. The question is if it outgrosses TLJ domestic and world wide. I don't think it will though.

 

[Mysteryman]

Are there any last minute box office indicators that give us an idea of how TROS will perform tonight?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

From THR:

Tracking services are suggesting $175 million to $200 million for Rise of Skywalker (Disney is being even more cautious in predicting $160 million-plus).

That would put it below the $220 debut of Rian Johnson's Star Wars: The Last Jedi — which divided fans — and a then-record $248 million debut for Abrams's Star Wars: The Force Awakens in 2016.

Box Office Preview: 'Star Wars' to Devour 'Cats' With $175M-Plus U.S. Bow

 

[spiderman2]

Overseas numbers are down measurably from TLJ. And I'm not seeing any indication from crowd reports that audiences were buzzing after the film last night. Appears to be a very polarizing movie. We're in uncharted territory for Star Wars. If domestic business has to do all the heavy lifting, then it has to over-perform to make up for those losses. I have a feeling this is going to be a very chaotic weekend with many highs and lows as we try to figure out where this train is headed.I fully expect the audience score of RT to be in the 90's or high 80's when it comes out. I think that will be the resource for those who love it to chime in to build momentum. It would be odd to see anything different.

You said OS numbers are down from TLJ do you have numbers? I have not seen any numbers yet.