The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[mc7791]

http://www.deadline.com/2012/04/the-avengers-pre-sales-bigger-than-previous-marvel-films-combined/

Dammmmnnn. thanks Chewy. that is some crazy good news. I will get to see it for free. I have 8 free passes from 2 different movie theater chains and the Avengers are responsible for half of them.

 

[Nokio]

I know that... even Iron Man is more popular than Superman. When I said "ever" I was hoping people would get the hint that I meant "well-known"

I know what you meant but still I had to post it.

 

[Marvin]

FOUR THOUSAND percent more tickets than Cap. That just sounds so absurd

have you seen cap?

 

[Saitou Hajime]

This movie is like a freight train with rocket boosters strapped on and a bulldoze blade on the nose. Ideally it gets stopped on its tracks by Snow White and the Hunstman, but it'd be ok if it bows do to MIB3.

 

[DOOZlovesBOOZ]

http://www.deadline.com/2012/04/the-avengers-pre-sales-bigger-than-previous-marvel-films-combined/

Keep bringing in the good news Chewy, i love hearing this type of stuff. It gets me so excited for Marvel Studios and how they will use this money for future plans.

 

[DyeLorean]

6 days ago everything for today was sold out here in Argentina, I had to buy a couple of tickets for tomorrow. So tomorrow is the day for me

 

[Iceman]

Looking forward to what that opening US weekend is going to be. Needs to create headlines so people who are in two minds get convinced to give it a try.

 

[DarthAlani]

Opening Weekend record looks to be in reach. Should do easily $150m+ OW.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

What about that pseudo vampire morbius? I think that's his name.

 

[Superhero 101]

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3426&p=.htm
Here's a cool article predicting the Foreign Markets for the Summer Movies Says Avengers should make 580 Million Overseas

 

[Vulklin]

when will the numbers start come in for UK opening day?

 

[Vulklin]

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3426&p=.htm
Here's a cool article predicting the Foreign Markets for the Summer Movies Says Avengers should make 580 Million Overseas

that article is ridiculous

they predict dark knight rises will rake in 300 million MORE than avengers overseas?

i don't think rises will beat dark knight at either domestic or overseas


when all the dust has settled i predict

domestic
1. dark knight
2. avengers
3. dark knight rises

overseas
1. avengers
2. dark knight
3. dark knight rises

total
1. avengers
2. dark knight
3. dark knight rises

 

[04nbod]

when will the numbers start come in for UK opening day?

When the day ends, tomorrow.

Booked my tickets for after work tomorrow. Prices are absurd.

 

[Vulklin]

I am in no rush to see it myself, I spoiled half the movie already

Monday midday is when I am going, no annoying kids around

And 2D not 3D rubbish

Also nice to judge what a "normal" audience reacts like to it, as opposed to fanboys

If a normal audience cheers and laughs throughout, we know we onto a winner t:

 

[redfirebird2008]

i don't think rises will beat dark knight at either domestic or overseas

TDKR is definitely going to beat TDK overseas. TDK didn't have China, 4 years of ticket price inflation, 4 times as many IMAX screens, or great word of mouth from Inception. Now I don't think it'll make $850m by any means, but it should beat the $468m of TDK.

Meanwhile, I think $580m overseas for Avengers is very reasonable. Would not be surprised to see it reach $600+ million.

 

[Raiden]

http://www.deadline.com/2012/04/the-avengers-pre-sales-bigger-than-previous-marvel-films-combined/

This sounds unbelievable. I seriously believe TA can surpass TDK in terms of box office, because it's not just the marketing and hype, but the WOM and repeated business will keep it up there for weeks on the top.

 

[redfirebird2008]

This sounds unbelievable. I seriously believe TA can surpass TDK in terms of box office, because it's not just the marketing and hype, but the WOM and repeated business will keep it up there for weeks on the top.

And 3D. Don't forget that one. It is a HUGE factor overseas. Look at how much Transformers 3 increased over Transformers 2. Even Harry Potter, which has had a pretty stagnant overseas audience for years, managed a huge increase when it was released in 3D overseas. I really wouldn't be surprised if Avengers makes $600-700m overseas thanks to great marketing, a great movie with very strong word of mouth, and the overseas 3D effect. I'm also expecting around $450m domestic, so it definitely has a good shot to make more than TDK's $1 billion.

 

[Mysteryman]

TDKR is definitely going to beat TDK overseas. TDK didn't have China, 4 years of ticket price inflation, 4 times as many IMAX screens, or great word of mouth from Inception. Now I don't think it'll make $850m by any means, but it should beat the $468m of TDK.

Meanwhile, I think $580m overseas for Avengers is very reasonable. Would not be surprised to see it reach $600+ million.

Agreed on all counts .

 

[Gamma Burst]

And 3D. Don't forget that one. It is a HUGE factor overseas. Look at how much Transformers 3 increased over Transformers 2. Even Harry Potter, which has had a pretty stagnant overseas audience for years, managed a huge increase when it was released in 3D overseas. I really wouldn't be surprised if Avengers makes $600-700m overseas thanks to great marketing, a great movie with very strong word of mouth, and the overseas 3D effect. I'm also expecting around $450m domestic, so it definitely has a good shot to make more than TDK's $1 billion.

Agreed. I honestly think it will make around 400M domestic and more than 600M WW. It wil be huge.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Agreed. I honestly think it will make around 400M domestic and more than 600M WW. It wil be huge.

Yeah, right now I'm leaning towards this:

Domestic - $450m
Overseas - $650m
Worldwide - $1.1 billion

 

[spider-neil]

this movie will do a billion, easy.

 

[DarthAlani]

Even if TDKR and Avengers sell a similar number of tickets, Avengers will still have the higher gross due to the 3-D effect.

 

[Mysteryman]

When the day ends, tomorrow.

Booked my tickets for after work tomorrow. Prices are absurd.

How bad ?

 

[spider-neil]

Even if TDKR and Avengers sell a similar number of tickets, Avengers will still have the higher gross due to the 3-D effect.

yep.

if it were anyone but nolan, WB would have forced 3D on the director.

nolan - 'no 3D'
WB - *gritted teeth* 'okay...'

 

[lililatigresse]

And 3D. Don't forget that one. It is a HUGE factor overseas. Look at how much Transformers 3 increased over Transformers 2. Even Harry Potter, which has had a pretty stagnant overseas audience for years, managed a huge increase when it was released in 3D overseas. I really wouldn't be surprised if Avengers makes $600-700m overseas thanks to great marketing, a great movie with very strong word of mouth, and the overseas 3D effect. I'm also expecting around $450m domestic, so it definitely has a good shot to make more than TDK's $1 billion.

About that 3D effect, I'd like to say that I don't know about other European countries or even other French cities, but I live in Paris and most people here don't like 3D (you pay more and you put those stupid glasses for nothing).
They watch films in 3D because they don't have a choice, it's really difficult to find a non 3D showing.

I was talking with my best friend earlier today, she was at a theater and she wanted to see TA, but when she found out the film was in 3D, she gave up and chose another film. She was really pissed.

That being said, TA will be succesful in France because school is out and the weather is terrible which is perfect for box office in France. My BF told me the theater was packed.