The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[Raiden]

Do you guys think TA can take down Battleship AND The Dictator next week?

If TA does indeed only suffers 52% or so drop this week, I have no doubt that it can remain #1 next week as well.

 

[Tony Stark]

boxoffice.com has it at 29M.

Nikki needs to find a new job.

 

[04nbod]

boxoffice.com has it at 29M.

Nikki needs to find a new job.

These things always go up and down. She was way off last week but usually she is in range.

 

[Liam_H]

Hmm. Yeah you guys got a point. But I think TA can reclaim the no 1 spot in June in at least one of the weeks. If it should come to that.

Highly unlikely. There's a big movie coming out every week in June and TA weekend take will be around the $30 million area around that time. It won't reclaim #1 by then but it'll remain in the Top 5 for a good while like the Hunger Games.

 

[thalidomide]

^^ is that a good or a bad thing? I'm having a hard time tracking these numbers

 

[yads]

The Avengers amassed an amazing $29.124 million on Friday, read more at
http://box-office-film-news.blogspot.com/2012/05/avengers-grosses-29124-million-on.html

See how much it should make over its second weekend

Good predictions. Based on the mediocre Friday OS the $1.25b WW might be close, although I still hope for $1.4-$1.5b.

As for domestic, yeah $102.8m is certainly possible - but the reality is we're in unchartered territory with the numbers TA is making. It should - according to the increases usually seen with family films - make quite a bit more than $103m, but that would mean getting close to $50m second Saturday, which is so unheard of it's funny.

 

[craigdbfan]

Very good.

 

[yads]

At the opposite end of the predicting scale:
http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118053937/

Considering their reputation, this is astonishingly dumb:

"This is a reasonable drop for a B.O. buster like "Avengers," but if it persists through Sunday, pic will fall barely short of beating "Avatar's" second frame feat of $75.5 million"

 

[CaptainCraig]

More than likely she looks at the boxoffice.com forums because RTH posts there.

Right, if Nikki looks at anywhere it's likely boxoffice.com or maybe it's sister site boxofficetheory.com
Not sure if she might check out World of KJ or not.
She's not coming here and that's just 4 sites. I'm sure others use her #'s and talk about her inaccurate(but early!) rapid fire numbers reports.

 

[craigdbfan]

I think it's going to keep doing very well. I don't see it slowing down personally.

 

[yads]

$21m yesterday OS is bad though, I was hoping it would do around $30m. I wonder to what extent it's Dark Shadows doing better OS than US, or, worse, if the legs are gonna be less great from here on out.

 

[CaptainCraig]

$21m yesterday OS is bad though, I was hoping it would do around $30m. I wonder to what extent it's Dark Shadows doing better OS than US, or, worse, if the legs are gonna be less great from here on out.

Well, it is the films third weekend in at least 41 territories overseas and Depp is bigger internationally than anything else new opening. Sort of to be expected.

I feel the third weekend drop domestically will start to look normal as well. No third weekend record setting number. Avatar's third weekend was about $69m, don't see Avengers besting that as much as I'd like to.

Avatar *spit*

 

[yads]

What's so crazy about the Variety article is the suggestion it might fall short of Avatar's $75m. Based on the $29m Friday, it should be roughly at that mark after Saturday.

 

[thalidomide]

So... anyone here still going to see TA? That might help set the record

 

[Rock Sexton]

So... anyone here still going to see TA? That might help set the record

Really wanted to go yesterday, but couldn't fit it in. Hoping to see it either today or tomorrow. The issue now is getting someone to go with me .... otherwise I may have to sack up and go on my own. Maybe I can convince my folks to go on Mother's Day.

 

[Quasimod0]

Yes. I'm going tomorrow. And I know lots of other ppl who are

 

[thalidomide]

I've already seen the movie 4 times!!

 

[Superhero 101]

So will it probably make about 80-95 million

 

[yads]

Yeah, it should do $105-$115m from a $29m Friday, but those numbers just look nuts for a second weekend...

 

[redfirebird2008]

So will it probably make about 80-95 million

Closer to $105m.

 

[Thread Manager]

This thread is now closed it has a continuation thread [split]383943[/split]