The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]383105[/split]

 

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]381997[/split]

 

[Travesty]

And to think DC fanboys used the excuse that: "The GA is tired of superheroes movies" to justify the train wreck that was GL. 200 mil!!! Marvel is laughing all the way to bank!

GL failed because it just wasn't that great of a movie. Granted, I didn't think it was horrible like B&R, but I don't think it was a good movie overall.

The Avengers on the other hand, was just

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Eh. You couldn't say that 4 days ago.

Whedon's TV work was always superior to Abrams'. Serenity is right up there with any of Abrams' films except Star Trek. The only thing Abrams' has over Whedon is being a shrewd businessman.

 

[Iceman]

Whedon's TV work was always superior to Abrams'. Serenity is right up there with any of Abrams' films except Star Trek. The only thing Abrams' has over Whedon is being a shrewd businessman.

I thought Lost was great for a TV show (excluding the ending).

 

[Travesty]

I think they're both fine directors.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

I thought Lost was great for a TV show (excluding the ending).

Lost belongs to Abrams every bit as much as Cloverfield did.

 

[eddy]

Whedon's TV work was always superior to Abrams'. Serenity is right up there with any of Abrams' films except Star Trek. The only thing Abrams' has over Whedon is being a shrewd businessman.

Well if you're talking someone's portfolio then the success of those are going to be the main criteria and as much as I love Joss theres no question until 4 days ago that Abrams was the more successful creator. Abrams created 3 successful(1 a megahit) shows on TV and was becoming big as a director and producer while everything Joss created was being canceled or left in development hell left and right. Thats all old news now. Its Joss' turn to shine.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I think a big test to a movies success/longevity is the 2nd week performance. To see how big the drop offs are and how much repeat viewings and word of mouth are a factor.

Right now avatar and TDK are 1 and 2 in 2nd week grosses neck and neck with:

1)$75,617,183 Avatar
2)$75,166,466 The Dark Knight

How do you guys think The avengers will hold to next weekend? it should be noted the previous number weekend debut h7-2 is not even in the top 20 for 2nd weekends.

 

[warhorse78]

I think they're both fine directors.

Both fine directors/writers/creators and producers.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Well if you're talking someone's portfolio then the success of those are going to be the main criteria and as much as I love Joss theres no question until 4 days ago that Abrams was the more successful creator. Abrams created 3 successful(1 a megahit) shows on TV and was becoming big as a director and producer while everything Joss created was being canceled or left in development hell left and right. Thats all old news now. Its Joss' turn to shine.

Felicity, Alias, and Undercovers were cancelled. Fringe danced on the precipice of cancellation all the time. Lost isn't Abrams'.

 

[SLYspyder]

I've always been a good judge as to if a comic book movie would break the opening weekend record. I said so for SM1, SM3, and Harry Potter 8. The only one I missed out on was TDK and only because I didn't fully factor in just how much of an impact Ledger's death would have on the film.


With that said, I think people expecting huge numbers for TDKR will be in for a surprise. I don't see that movie having a bigger opening weekend than TDK ($158M).


I knew the Avengers would take the OW record. I predicted this back when TDK took the record. It's an event movie. I was baffled that people didn't understand that the total (The Avengers) would be much greater than the sum of the parts (individual heroes). It's never been done before. Hopefully, DC will now get their act together and start a stand alone franchise with the Justice League, an arguable more popular group of superheroes. Those characters do not need individual movie set ups.


People saying this movie won't have legs need to take a look at the numbers. It went up from Friday to Saturday! It had a slight drop on Sunday! The reviews are outstanding! All that equals long legs guaranteed. I think it will do over $100M on it's 2nd weekend.

I'm sticking to my original prediction of:
$200M OW
$600 USA
$800 Intl
$1.4B Total

Marvel, Disney, and Whedon truly deserve this!


The real battle this summer/year is going to be between ASM and TDKR. Avengers has already won.

 

[warhorse78]

^I honestly believe that TDKR has a damn good chance at getting Midnights and OD record, but, I just don't think it's going to have the diversity or fun factor going for it that The Avengers has, to beat in it OW, total Domestic or WW gross. I still think The Hobbit is going to be king of the OS/WW box office in the end, but we'll see, we'll see. Either way, I think us, as the viewers, are the real winners. Finally we're seeing some good quality work that the masses love, that isn't crude, offensive or childish in anyway.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I've always been a good judge as to if a comic book movie would break the opening weekend record. I said so for SM1, SM3, and Harry Potter 8. The only one I missed out on was TDK and only because I didn't fully factor in just how much of an impact Ledger's death would have on the film.


With that said, I think people expecting huge numbers for TDKR will be in for a surprise. I don't see that movie having a bigger opening weekend than TDK ($158M).


I knew the Avengers would take the OW record. I predicted this back when TDK took the record. It's an event movie. I was baffled that people didn't understand that the total (The Avengers) would be much greater than the sum of the parts (individual heroes). It's never been done before. Hopefully, DC will now get their act together and start a stand alone franchise with the Justice League, an arguable more popular group of superheroes. Those characters do not need individual movie set ups.


People saying this movie won't have legs need to take a look at the numbers. It went up from Friday to Saturday! It had a slight drop on Sunday! The reviews are outstanding! All that equals long legs guaranteed. I think it will do over $100M on it's 2nd weekend.

I'm sticking to my original prediction of:
$200M OW
$600 USA
$800 Intl
$1.4B Total

Marvel, Disney, and Whedon truly deserve this!


The real battle this summer/year is going to be between ASM and TDKR. Avengers has already won.

No it went down friday to saturday 80.5 million friday to 69.7 million sat. I don't think it will do near 600 milllion domestic. Like i said in my previous post 2nd weekend gross will be a huge factor to determine its legs.

I'll reserve judgement on its legs until then.

 

[Chewy]

No it went down friday to saturday 80.5 million friday to 69.7 million sat.

No it didn't. Midnights were 18.7 million so Friday itself was 61.8 million. That's a pretty large jump from Friday to Saturday (and they are also underestimating the Sunday by a few million)

 

[Mysteryman]

Will its daily grosses from Monday to Thursday tell us anything about what to expect for the second weekend?

 

[Raiden]

I think a big test to a movies success/longevity is the 2nd week performance. To see how big the drop offs are and how much repeat viewings and word of mouth are a factor.

Right now avatar and TDK are 1 and 2 in 2nd week grosses neck and neck with:

1)$75,617,183 Avatar
2)$75,166,466 The Dark Knight

How do you guys think The avengers will hold to next weekend? it should be noted the previous number weekend debut h7-2 is not even in the top 20 for 2nd weekends.

Even if TA drops over 50%, it can still gross more than 75 mil IMO.

 

[Chewy]

will its daily grosses from Monday to Thursday tell us anything about what to expect for the second weekend?

This is May (aka kids are in school) so it will have weaker weekdays and stronger weekends.

 

[Spider-Vader]

God, I'm so happy that Avengers is the first movie to make 200 million OW. It truly deserves it.

 

[The_Shadow]

Are the official numbers out?

 

[Mysteryman]

Tomorrow,I believe .

 

[Tony Stark]

I think a big test to a movies success/longevity is the 2nd week performance. To see how big the drop offs are and how much repeat viewings and word of mouth are a factor.

Right now avatar and TDK are 1 and 2 in 2nd week grosses neck and neck with:

1)$75,617,183 Avatar
2)$75,166,466 The Dark Knight

How do you guys think The avengers will hold to next weekend? it should be noted the previous number weekend debut h7-2 is not even in the top 20 for 2nd weekends.

I think Avengers will pull in 90M. Avengers is not HP7, HP7 has a totally different fan base, more like that for Twilight and Hunger Games.

Good CBM's typically can do at least -55%.

 

[Punisher Rising]

God, I'm so happy that Avengers is the first movie to make 200 million OW. It truly deserves it.

Amen. I hope it continues to clean house at the box office.

 

[redfirebird2008]

I think a big test to a movies success/longevity is the 2nd week performance. To see how big the drop offs are and how much repeat viewings and word of mouth are a factor.

Right now avatar and TDK are 1 and 2 in 2nd week grosses neck and neck with:

1)$75,617,183 Avatar
2)$75,166,466 The Dark Knight

How do you guys think The avengers will hold to next weekend? it should be noted the previous number weekend debut h7-2 is not even in the top 20 for 2nd weekends.

It should be able to break the second weekend record. Early May movies have deflated weekdays and inflated weekends due to kids being in school. I expect Avengers to make $85-90m. Would not even be surprised if it manages $100m.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

TA seems to be mostly a walk-up business, and isn't as frontloaded as a HP/Twilight/THG, which thrive on huge midnights.