The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[Raiden]

$28 million. Movie will basically be over $350 million after it's second domestic weekend. It will be really close to the $1 billion mark this weekend.

Movie will likely be biggest opening weekend ever, fastest to $200 million ever, fastest to $300 million ever.

Cool. I just checked Deadline and now they're predicting that TA will make 100 mil this week, obviously breaking the old record set by Avatar and TDK. This is a great news!

 

[TheVileOne]

Yeah seriously, Avatar, *Patooey.*

 

[Xeno]

Cool. I just checked Deadline and now they're predicting that TA will make 100 mil this week, obviously breaking the old record set by Avatar and TDK. This is a great news!

http://m.deadline.com/2012/05/dark-shadows-opens-with-550k-midnights/ (posted by MovieMasterCBM in the News/Spec thread)

‘AVENGERS’ SETS 2ND WEEKEND RECORD $100M – Still #1 Phenom Nearing $1B Global; Anemic ‘Dark Shadows’ Creeping To $28M

FRIDAY PM/SATURDAY AM, 4TH UPDATE: Remember that these reports from my sources don’t include any uptick in late shows. But the biggest is getting still bigger and still setting records: Marvel’s The Avengers (playing very wide with 4,349 theaters) looks like around $28M for today and approaches a gargantuan $100M second weekend. This will be far-and-away the highest second domestic weekend in box office history (passing Avatar‘s and The Dark Knight‘s $75M records). That means the holdover will drop only 53% after its record-setting opening. Coming into Friday it was scooping up 75% of all tickets sales at online MovieTickets.com. Disney says its superheroes worldwide juggernaut will cross $300M domestic on Saturday (unless there’s a big surge this evening) in a record of only 9 days. (The previous record was 10 days.) Through Sunday its domestic haul should be around $355M. So what’s the total overseas so far? Its international gross is $533.3M for a global cumulative of $888.3M. Disney thinks $1B is possible through Sunday.

Nikki is admitting that her numbers may be on the low end if sales surge for the late shows as happened last weekend. (She also can't find her "ENTER" key. Paragraphs, hon! They're the latest thing.)

 

[TheVileOne]

I wonder if Nikki Finke ever looks at these forums.

 

[Jordanstine]

http://m.deadline.com/2012/05/dark-shadows-opens-with-550k-midnights/ (posted by MovieMasterCBM in the News/Spec thread)



Nikki is admitting that her numbers may be on the low end if sales surge for the late shows as happened last weekend. (She also can't find her "ENTER" key. Paragraphs, hon! They're the latest thing.)

RTH says between 28-30 so possibly 29.

Doing the bo.com calculations, a $29M Friday would be a $99.7M weekend haul.

 

[Xeno]

I wonder if Nikki Finke ever looks at these forums.

I think she looks at the boxoffice.com forums because that guy Rth smokes her every weekend.

 

[Jordanstine]

I wonder if Nikki Finke ever looks at these forums.

More than likely she looks at the boxoffice.com forums because RTH posts there.

 

[psylockolussus]

I'll give you three weeks at #1.

But seven?

I agree. The only competition of the Avengers this month is MIB. So it could stay in #1 for 3 weeks but I think when MIB 3 hits the theaters, it will no longer be #1 in the weekend box-office.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Hmm. Yeah you guys got a point. But I think TA can reclaim the no 1 spot in June in at least one of the weeks. If it should come to that.

 

[Chewy]

Just imagine how big this movie would have been if it had tapped into the zeitgeist

 

[Gamma Burst]

Just imagine how big this movie would have been if it had tapped into the zeitgeist

LOL!t:

 

[Captain Hulk]

I'm predicting 120 million second weekend...... I think a lot of people are underestimating it..... And if Nikki says 100m, just know it would make at least 20m above that... The first weekend she predicted 185m, it got 207m so i'm going for between 110-120m second weekend....... But......
Who are we to play God? I'll prefer to be suprised......

 

[Captain Hulk]

Hmm. Yeah you guys got a point. But I think TA can reclaim the no 1 spot in June in at least one of the weeks. If it should come to that.

Hmmm..... I don't think so.....

 

[Iceman]

C'mon get to 100! The $200m OP & $100m 2W would both be landmark records and push it to $400m by Thursday at the latest. $400m with a likely decent $50m/$60m 3W still on the cards! Even that $500m wouldn't seem far away at all.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Update from Rth: It should get close to 30m.

 

[Doctor Jones]

What should it be making today?

I only ask because I told my friends that we should get there a little before an hour beforehand given what it could make this weekend.

But wow, a 52% drop for this is the best 52% drop a movie could possibly have.

 

[KangConquers]

I remember reading several months ago that Disney saw Avengers as a viable replacement for Pirates on the "off" years. Now Pirates looks like it'll be the placeholder for Avengers on it's off years.

 

[Pond]

Why did Dark Shadows open a week later than Avengers?

Loved the movie, but even if it wasnt breaking records, it was a risky choice at best.

 

[thalidomide]

I remember reading several months ago that Disney saw Avengers as a viable replacement for Pirates on the "off" years. Now Pirates looks like it'll be the placeholder for Avengers on it's off years.

So what you're saying is, they're still going to make a Pirates movie?

 

[Suzanne78]

Yeah, the more I thought about DS, the more I agree it should've opened in the fall. It's already getting lost in Avengers' record breaking run, and it'll just get worse over the next couple of weeks with Battleship and MIB3 cutting into the BO share.

I've heard that DS cost $100 mil-$150 mil to produce/market. What the hell? I have no idea where other Burton-Depp collabs have fallen budget wise, but that was one heck of a risky move on WB's part. It probably could've scored big in the fall or winter right before The Hobbit hits...

 

[warhorse78]

Yeah, the more I thought about DS, the more I agree it should've opened in the fall. It's already getting lost in Avengers' record breaking run, and it'll just get worse over the next couple of weeks with Battleship and MIB3 cutting into the BO share.

I've heard that DS cost $100 mil-$150 mil to produce/market. What the hell? I have no idea where other Burton-Depp collabs have fallen budget wise, but that was one heck of a risky move on WB's part. It probably could've scored big in the fall or winter right before The Hobbit hits...

That's what most people are saying. It's just one of those films that should have been released during the Halloween months. Poor, poor decision on WB's part.

 

[thalidomide]

Maybe WB thinks that DS will own the Avengers j/k

 

[warhorse78]

Maybe WB thinks that DS will own the Avengers j/k

Well, the only financial reason would be, is because of their contract with IMAX, they would have been able to use DS to squeeze out The Avengers from the IMAX screens, but obviously, that decision too was modified.

 

[ElMariachi]

Do you guys think TA can take down Battleship AND The Dictator next week?

 

[Raiden]

Well, the only financial reason would be, is because of their contract with IMAX, they would have been able to use DS to squeeze out The Avengers from the IMAX screens, but obviously, that decision too was modified.

I think WB thought DS could stop TA's momentum, but even their own analysts probably didn't anticipate it to gross 207 mil OW. They massively underestimated TA.