The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[Joeyjojo72]

Wait, Bella isnt her real name? Dude wtf?

 

[TheVileOne]

MIB3 is clearly not doing that well with audiences.

Let me put something in perspective for you all. In 2012, the 3D MIB made $55 million opening weekend and about $70 million ish for the holiday weekend.

Fifteen years ago in 1997, MIB came out the week of July 4th weekend. You know much it made from July 4-6 in 1997? $51 million. Know what else? With the two extra days it came out on Wednesday, the movie made altogether $84 million in five days. That was freaking huge back then. It made a total $250 million domestically in 1997. This sequel isn't even touching that. Those amounts all these years later are likely a lot more than $55 million now plus factor the extra 3D costs. Sony spent probably a $100 million plus on the original MIB. Do you know how much they spent on this turkey? Probably close to TRIPLE what the first one cost. And they achieved INFERIOR box office results.

This is an EX-franchise.

 

[Raiden]

MIB3 is clearly not doing that well with audiences.

Let me put something in perspective for you all. In 2012, the 3D MIB made $55 million opening weekend and about $70 million ish for the holiday weekend.

Fifteen years ago in 1997, MIB came out the week of July 4th weekend. You know much it made from July 4-6 in 1997? $51 million. Know what else? With the two extra days it came out on Wednesday, the movie made altogether $84 million in five days. That was freaking huge back then. It made a total $250 million domestically in 1997. This sequel isn't even touching that. Those amounts all these years later are likely a lot more than $55 million now plus factor the extra 3D costs. Sony spent probably a $100 million plus on the original MIB. Do you know how much they spent on this turkey? Probably close to TRIPLE what the first one cost. And they achieved INFERIOR box office results.

This is an EX-franchise.

I agree. Sony will be lying if they said this is in line with their expectation for MIB3. Clearly, it underperformed, even with the fact that the last movie came out 10 years ago and Will Smith hadn't made a hit movie for quite some time. Given Sony's financial difficulties in recent years, I'm sure this is yet another investment that won't pan out in the end.

 

[cherokeesam]

To quote Han Solo, never tell me the odds.

That wasn't Han Solo; it was Peter Griffin.

 

[mclay18]

600 million still seems impossible for me i still think it will come short there is tough competition coming next week and the week after that Snow White Prometheus and Madagascar 3 will surely make it tough for Avengers to reach 600

If those films don't open to industry expectations, let alone exceed them, The Avengers will have longer staying power. If it continues having mild drops throughout the next couple of weeks, it'll coast past $600M by the end of June. MIB3 was expected to do far better -- Sony wanted $90M for the four-day weekend, rivals expected it to gross $80M, but it fell $10M below expectations. Instead, people returned for more helpings of The Avengers.

Do you know how much they spent on this turkey? Probably close to TRIPLE what the first one cost. And they achieved INFERIOR box office results.

I'm honestly shocked at how cheap MIB3 looked, with the astronomical budget (I'm guessing a third went to Smith, the producers, and Barry Sonnenfeld). Will Smith's last movie wasn't a bona fide hit and he hadn't made a movie for three years. Sony should've used that as leveraging power when Smith was making his deal for the movie, in order to keep costs from soaring (like a reduced asking price with a nice backend deal if the film broke even).

And while the "making a movie without a completed script" thing isn't a new thing for Hollywood, the fact the film took a 6 week hiatus just to finish rewriting the last reel probably cost $50M-70M for that mishap. Sony should've known better and had the script finished (or at least in a solid enough state not to delay filming), and had a short production schedule.

 

[hitmanyr2k]

I saw The Avengers this afternoon for my 4th and final time until the bluray hits stores. I was surprised at how this movie is still packing people in the theater in its 4th weekend and once again it was a very lively crowd.

 

[Tymminator]

I have to see it again with some co-workers. There are still folks out there.

 

[jse]

I agree. Sony will be lying if they said this is in line with their expectation for MIB3. Clearly, it underperformed, even with the fact that the last movie came out 10 years ago and Will Smith hadn't made a hit movie for quite some time. Given Sony's financial difficulties in recent years, I'm sure this is yet another investment that won't pan out in the end.

Disney buys Sony Pictures Entertainmanent from the Sony Corporation. Spider-Man film rights return to Marvel. Boom... Pandemonium.

Not likely but we can all dream lol.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Disney buys Sony Pictures Entertainmanent from the Sony Corporation. Spider-Man film rights return to Marvel. Boom... Pandemonium.

Not likely but we can all dream lol.

I think that is everyone's hopes but I'm not sure that will happen. They'd probably restructure before they sold it.

 

[Tymminator]

I think it will go down. Right now, all Sony gets is ticket sales...that's it. If any other company got the rights, that's all they would get too....no DVD/Blu-ray sales, no other merchandising rights of any kind. Honestly that doesn't even help Sony long term, really...not the way they are bleeding billions. Marvel allready has the cartoon/TV rights and the Merchandising rights. I say its just a matter of time. Just IMO.

 

[Tymminator]

Back on the subject of B.O. for Avengers, Tony Stark mapped it out pretty well, a few pages back.

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=383943&page=32

Looks like Avengers is/was going along the lines of Iron Man(1) re: % drops...maybe even a tad better? Anyway, great job there.

 

[Kalonthar]

MIB3 is clearly not doing that well with audiences.

Let me put something in perspective for you all. In 2012, the 3D MIB made $55 million opening weekend and about $70 million ish for the holiday weekend.

Fifteen years ago in 1997, MIB came out the week of July 4th weekend. You know much it made from July 4-6 in 1997? $51 million. Know what else? With the two extra days it came out on Wednesday, the movie made altogether $84 million in five days. That was freaking huge back then. It made a total $250 million domestically in 1997. This sequel isn't even touching that. Those amounts all these years later are likely a lot more than $55 million now plus factor the extra 3D costs. Sony spent probably a $100 million plus on the original MIB. Do you know how much they spent on this turkey? Probably close to TRIPLE what the first one cost. And they achieved INFERIOR box office results.

This is an EX-franchise.

We're just on a different page here. I'm talking quality, not box office. Otherwise we might as well talk about how Transformers 2 didn't suck simply because it made a lot of money. I'm just saying that MIB3 has done well enough with those of the general audience and critics who have seen it to not be considered sucky quality wise.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

But Twilight already has a core following behind it with the books and a good chunk of the Twilight audience don't even like Stewart.

Twilight may have a built in audience, but like Alice in Wonderland, Snow White is a classic fairy tale, it doesn't need a built in audience

Bingo! This movie will make low-mid 100s domestic.

Mark my words, 200M+ domestic.

 

[mc7791]

Twilight may have a built in audience, but like Alice in Wonderland, Snow White is a classic fairy tale, it doesn't need a built in audience


Mark my words, 200M+ domestic.

if that is so thats kind of sad. I went and saw Avengers again this weekend and there was a pretty good crowd in the theater. looks like all the production issues are hurting MIB3. I may check it out this weekend

 

[Jordanstine]

If those films don't open to industry expectations, let alone exceed them, <b>The Avengers</b> will have longer staying power. If it continues having mild drops throughout the next couple of weeks, it'll coast past $600M by the end of June. MIB3 was expected to do far better -- Sony wanted $90M for the four-day weekend, rivals expected it to gross $80M, but it fell $10M below expectations. Instead, people returned for more helpings of <b>The Avengers</b>.<br />

<br />
I actually agree with Superhero101, $600 million is going to be tough and won't surpass it by June.

Based on the average estimate drops, by the end of June, The Avengers will likely have between $582M - $585M in the bag. Will it have enough to muster another $15M - $18M in July? Doesn't sound like much, but how many more theaters will have it with all the competition?

As each week goes by, the # of screens drop faster than a fly. Films in May are tough to get legs because they get more theater drops than July/December flicks due to having to make room for "other blockbusters". The Avengers just lost over 330 screens this week already.

If this film holds until start of August, then I can definitely see it reach $600M, but not in June.

 

[warhorse78]

523 million already at the BO. It's going to be third highest domestic BO in history by this Friday, it's gotta be.

 

[mc7791]

523 million already at the BO. It's going to be third highest domestic BO in history by this Friday, it's gotta be.

hope so

 

[spider-neil]

MIB2 killed the franchise (dreadful movie), the franchise was dead and it just didn't know it then.

I'm hoping that SM3 hasn't killed ASM.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3433&p=.htm

lol

 

[Octavias]

523 million after monday if the estimates are correct. by saturday it will have surpassed TDK for #3 all time domestic. Think abut this.... from the same timeframe of next sunday through the end of its run, TDK made 67 million dollars. Based on where TA is vs TDK that projects to 76 million more than whatever it did on saturday, and school isnt even out yet....

 

[KangConquers]

MIB2 killed the franchise (dreadful movie), the franchise was dead and it just didn't know it then.

I'm hoping that SM3 hasn't killed ASM.

Movies pay for the sins of their predecessors. I see ASM being by far, the lowest grossing of the Spider-Man films, especially domestically. I'm not saying it's going to bomb, but I don't think we're going to see anywhere near $400 domestic. $300 M domestic might even be pushing it.

 

[spider-neil]

Movies pay for the sins of their predecessors. I see ASM being by far, the lowest grossing of the Spider-Man films, especially domestically. I'm not saying it's going to bomb, but I don't think we're going to see anywhere near $400 domestic. $300 M domestic might even be pushing it.

TF2 - Terrible movie
TF3 - Massive hit

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

Movies pay for the sins of their predecessors. I see ASM being by far, the lowest grossing of the Spider-Man films, especially domestically. I'm not saying it's going to bomb, but I don't think we're going to see anywhere near $400 domestic. $300 M domestic might even be pushing it.

people sometimes thinks too negative about these things.

Sure, the last Spidey movie kinda sucks...and yeah, most likely the GA will still remember that the last movie kinda suck...

BUT....they will aslo remembers that the first two movies were awesome, and they will take that fact into considerations also.

In my opinion, TASM will do just fine.Might even do better that some peope here predicting

 

[Joeyjojo72]

If its decent, but not great, it will struggle domestically. It needs something approaching TA word of mouth.

 

[Octavias]

Several points...

First off, films arent judged solely on domestic revenue anymore. MIB already has passed 200 million worldwide. Sony wont lose money on the project, therefore the decision to push forward instead of kill the project after they had sunk over 100 million into it likely turned out to be a good call afterall. Thats not to say there is going to be a MIB4 or anything, just that a 4 day 70 mil was the 11th biggest memorial day opening. Not spectacular, not a huge failure either....

Secondly, coming from a huge Spiderman fan, I cant say I expect a huge monetary turnout for this movie unless word of mouth is spectacular. The majority of my friends who still like comic movies are generally negative about this mostly due to the previous movie. It may be like Batman Begins, where the reboot of the franchise needs to simmer through a bit before the public will return en-mass to the franchise. the only real difference is that Batman waited a long time and had multiple sub-par movies before rebooting.