The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[DoomsdayApex]

The problem with Battleship & Transformers is. None of the Transformers movies had a one month delay between Theater Releases. Now there are very decent copies of Battleship floating around online. So if anyone really wanted to see Battleship. They would have before hand. So we will see how that goes. Me I am personally waiting to see it. But Battleship & Transformers are two different situations

While that may be true, the word of mouth regarding ROTF was still significantly mixed. Right now, it's complex to predict. Battleship could very well flop... or succeed. It all depends on whether The Avengers can keep the GA busy for 2-3 weeks like The Hunger Games did (although there was minimal competition).

 

[Ultimatehero]

The problem is we're thinking like comic fans. It's a crapshoot when arriving to Week Two or Three. Just because Battleship and MIB3 appear like s**t doesn't mean the GA will avoid it.

Hasbro and Universal wanted Battleship to appear like Transformers for a reason -- ROTF made 900 million.

Actually I'm into MIBIII and seeing that taking 1.

DS is a different demographic. It is no competition. Both will be running neck-and-neck and very successful.

Battleship, not really from fan perspective, just - as said - I have yet to hear people offline say one good thing about it.

 

[Donut]

While that may be true, the word of mouth regarding ROTF was still significantly mixed. Right now, it's complex to predict. Battleship could very well flop... or succeed. It all depends on whether The Avengers can keep the GA busy for 2-3 weeks like The Hunger Games did (although there was minimal competition).

I am hoping for Battleship to flop here. The Studios need to start not doing International Releases so far apart & giving the bootleggers time to do decent versions of them long before the U.S. releases. Releasing them early Internationally will not stop Piracy or delay it. In fact it helps it

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I am hoping for Battleship to flop here. The Studios need to start not doing International Releases so far apart & giving the bootleggers time to do decent versions of them long before the U.S. releases. Releasing them early Internationally will not stop Piracy or delay it. In fact it helps it

I can go with that, but I just don't want to see any more board game adaptations. Hollywood is getting too lazy and unoriginal.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

The problem is we're thinking like comic fans. It's a crapshoot when arriving to Week Two or Three. Just because Battleship and MIB3 appear like s**t doesn't mean the GA will avoid it.

Hasbro and Universal wanted Battleship to appear like Transformers for a reason -- ROTF made 900 million.

MIB3 is a different story because it offers something different. Battleship being a bad Transformers clone works against it because it's going up against something (The Avengers) that is not only a superior Transformers clone, but in some ways what Transformers should be.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

MIB3 is a different story because it offers something different. Battleship being a bad Transformers clone works against it because it's going up against something (The Avengers) that is not only a superior Transformers clone, but in some ways what Transformers should be.

Yet people could still gather to watch a crappy clone just because of the visuals/SFX and immense sized battles. Trust me, most don't debate the quality of films like we do. They simply just go to the theater and pay to be entertained for two hours.

 

[Xeno]

One thing I've seen about fan box office discussions (and I've been reading them regularly since they first started appearing on the internet) is that strong optimism for any film with a hardcore fanbase is generally decried as immature and marks people out as those who don't know what they're talking about while grossly underestimating is a lot more forgivable by so called forum 'experts'.

QFT. We can see that attitude in this very thread. Even now when the numbers are rolling in, we keep getting admonished not to look at it like fans.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

QFT. We can see that attitude in this very thread. Even now when the numbers are rolling in, we keep getting admonished not to look at it like fans.

The Hunger Games was supposedly tracking to make 700 million at one point and 160 million OW by these 'professionals'. Nothing is guaranteed here, even with great opening numbers.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Yet people could still gather to watch a crappy clone just because of the visuals/SFX and immense sized battles.

Which The Avengers have; the final battle is practically an expy of the Chicago act from DOTM. I suppose Battleship has better military porn.

Trust me, most don't debate the quality of films like we do. They simply just go to the theater and pay to be entertained for two hours.

The quality is just what puts TA over the top. But on a superficial level, it matches anything Battleship has to offer.

It would be a different case if the crappy clone is unchallenged, but if the superior clone is there as an alternative, I could see audiences preferring to not waste their money on second best.

 

[Chewy]

The Hunger Games was supposedly tracking to make 700 million at one point and 160 million OW by these 'professionals'. Nothing is guaranteed here, even with great opening numbers.

Um. No it wasn't.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Which The Avengers have; the final battle is practically an expy of the Chicago act from DOTM. I suppose Battleship has better military porn.

Yet, Battleship is two weeks later during the summer.

The quality is just what puts TA over the top. But on a superficial level, it matches anything Battleship has to offer.

It would be a different case if the crappy clone is unchallenged, but if the superior clone is there as an alternative, I could see audiences preferring to not waste their money on second best.

Despite that, Battleship has raked in nearly 150 million in the foreign market. People within this very thread predicted that it wouldn't even make 69 million.

The point is you shouldn't underestimate a film regardless of its quality and redundant format when it advertises a 'spectacle' too. The GA, regardless, could go see it just for the hell of it.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Um. No it wasn't.

Yep. Several sites were offering their predictions based on pre-showing ticket sales and OW numbers.

From 500 million WW to 800 million WW; 135 million OW to 165 million OW. These predictions were all over the place.

 

[Ultimatehero]

I did. But I meant 69 mil DOMESTIC. And I'm standing by that or less. Just I haven't seen this kind of reaction to trailers since SPEED RACER.

 

[Chewy]

Yep. Several sites were offering their predictions based on pre-showing ticket sales and OW numbers.

From 500 million WW to 800 million WW; 135 million OW to 165 million OW. These predictions were all over the place.

Yeah after it had opened some sites were saying it could go as high as 165 based on matinees.

A week out they were not.

 

[Raiden]

I did. But I meant 69 mil DOMESTIC. And I'm standing by that or less. Just I haven't seen this kind of reaction to trailers since SPEED RACER.

Even though I doubt Battleship will perform up to expectation, 69 mil is just way too low. I think it will make over 100 mil, but probably under 150 mil domestic when it's all said and done.

 

[Xeno]

The Hunger Games was supposedly tracking to make 700 million at one point and 160 million OW by these 'professionals'. Nothing is guaranteed here, even with great opening numbers.

You'll notice that I didn't say anything in my post about "professionals." I was referring to the actual box office numbers from the markets in which The Avengers has already opened. From now on, everything anyone in this thread can say as far as their own amateur predictions are concerned is just static because reality has entered the picture. It's all irrelevant in the face of hard numbers.

 

[Vulklin]

are the numbers in yet for yesterday?

UK Friday takings are.....?

 

[Gamma Burst]

You'll notice that I didn't say anything in my post about "professionals." I was referring to the actual box office numbers from the markets in which The Avengers has already opened. From now on, everything anyone in this thread can say as far as their own amateur predictions are concerned is just static because reality has entered the picture. It's all irrelevant in the face of hard numbers.

This. Not hard to understand at all.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Even though I doubt Battleship will perform up to expectation, 69 mil is just way too low. I think it will make over 100 mil, but probably under 150 mil domestic when it's all said and done.

Don't really think so. But time will tell.

To me it has many things going against it:

I've yet to see one audience member say something good after the trailer shows rather than ridicule it. I have yet to hear one word offline about it.

AVENGERS will still be out and is the best reviewed action film in a long time stealing that spot-light. DARK SHADOWS is gaining grounds with adults it seems like (the older demos) so it's going to have that base covered.

Science-fiction/alien fans... well, again, AVENGERS & MIBIII.

With those two things working against it - in my view it's going to be suffocated. Any other time of year? Yeah, 69 is low. But, where it is now? One week before MIBIII, two after Avengers, one after DS. I just don't see plenty of room for it to move.

 

[Nokio]

eff that


and I still say 200 million is possible for opening weekend US

Well I'm not sure that may be even possible. You have to factor in the number of theaters that Avengers will be shown in when released and it also has a nearly 2 1/2 hour runtime. Those things actually matters. I think maybe Harry Potter numbers are more attainable, maybe between 150mil-170 opening. I'm just not sure. We are after all comic geeks and are assuming the General audience is gonna slop it up as well. The GA don't have the same excitement that us fans do. These characters have been a part of our lives as kids growing up and to see them on the big screen is fantastic. I would caution not to overestimate the interest of the general audience as i would caution not to underestimate the interest of the GA in both Battleship and Dark Shadows.

 

[Gamma Burst]

Well I'm not sure that may be even possible. You have to factor in the number of theaters that Avengers will be shown in when released and it also has a nearly 2 1/2 hour runtime. Those things actually matters. I think maybe Harry Potter numbers are more attainable, maybe between 150mil-170 opening. I'm just not sure. We are after all comic geeks and are assuming the General audience is gonna slop it up as well. The GA don't have the same excitement that us fans do. These characters have been a part of our lives as kids growing up and to see them on the big screen is fantastic. I would caution not to overestimate the interest of the general audience as i would caution not to underestimate the interest of the GA in both Battleship and Dark Shadows.

Boxofficemojo says the tracking suggests it can be anywhere between 150M and the 169M record of HP.

 

[Nokio]

Don't really think so. But time will tell.

To me it has many things going against it:

I've yet to see one audience member say something good after the trailer shows rather than ridicule it. I have yet to hear one word offline about it.

AVENGERS will still be out and is the best reviewed action film in a long time stealing that spot-light. DARK SHADOWS is gaining grounds with adults it seems like (the older demos) so it's going to have that base covered.

Science-fiction/alien fans... well, again, AVENGERS & MIBIII.

With those two things working against it - in my view it's going to be suffocated. Any other time of year? Yeah, 69 is low. But, where it is now? One week before MIBIII, two after Avengers, one after DS. I just don't see plenty of room for it to move.

I'm gonna say it again to try to get fans to be open minded and not be disappointed. Do not overestimate the general audience interest in the Avengers. It's not the same as ours. Also I would caution not to underestimate the GA's interest in Battle Ship, Dark Shadows and MIB3.

I personally do not believe that any of those films will beat Avengers at the box office but you never know and it is possible that all three can easily sail over 200 million on the domestic front, especially MIB3, in fact of the 3 I suspect MIB3 will go north of 200 million. Dark Shadows probably has the lowest chance but i still do not see that movie flopping. I don't want to guess or assume on Battle Ship. I think it's going to make over 150 million domestically, as for 200 I'm not sure.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

You'll notice that I didn't say anything in my post about "professionals." I was referring to the actual box office numbers from the markets in which The Avengers has already opened. From now on, everything anyone in this thread can say as far as their own amateur predictions are concerned is just static because reality has entered the picture. It's all irrelevant in the face of hard numbers.

I'll believe it when I see it. Until then, there is no such thing as 'hard numbers'. It has yet to showcase its legs in the foreign market, and be released in America and face the competition.

The only film I see making a billion thus far (guaranteed) is The Hobbit.

 

[Nokio]

Boxofficemojo says the tracking suggests it can be anywhere between 150M and the 169M record of HP.

Well I remember that tracking suggested that a few movies were going to have this big opening and while they did have a good opening it wasn't on par with what Box Office mojo estimated. Iron Man 2 was one example.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Dude, I don't have a "fan's eye" I have a "studio's eye" lol. When conversing with executives on a business-front, I'm on the same page. Don't know how. But, this isn't seeing things from a fan's perspective. Reception may be good for BATTLEFIELD overseas but domestically as said, only good response I've heard from an audience (one that wasn't openly mocking it) was Doomsday saying that didn't happen for him. Also John Carter - only made 69 mil and that wasn't competing with anything. The guy isn't a 'name' to draw in the masses. Only one is Neeson and that's all. As said, any other time it would do good, here it's suffocating. One film is inevitably going to come out the weaker:

AVENGERS (don't need to mention names)
DARK SHADOWS (Burton, Depp, Phiefer)
BATTLEFIELD (Neeson, Kitch (well, John Carter.....))
MEN IN BLACK III (Smith, Lee, Brolin)

It's inevitable. They can't all make the "big bucks" and be "successful." This year, due to overcrowding it's 'Battleship.' As said, I don't see things from a fan perspective - studio level is all I have an eye for and some fans would hate me for it lol. In fact, some even might.