The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Vulklin]

are we there yet?

with friday uk numbers?

 

[Spider-Vader]

Battleship is a weird one to decide it's fate. There's alot of negative reactions from JUST because of what it's based on (which I completely agree with...I wanted my DAMN HUNGRY HUNGRY HIPPOS MOVIE! >:C ). But it does looks like the type of crap that could draw in a decent sized crowd. Big stars, big actions, etc... If the name was something else besides Battleship, I think it'd easily do 150 mil or so. But that name will probably draw people away.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Estimates are at around £3.4m / $5.55m for Friday.

 

[Quasimod0]

Battleship is no avengers

 

[Raiden]

Battleship is a weird one to decide it's fate. There's alot of negative reactions from JUST because of what it's based on (which I completely agree with...I wanted my DAMN HUNGRY HUNGRY HIPPOS MOVIE! >:C ). But it does looks like the type of crap that could draw in a decent sized crowd. Big stars, big actions, etc... If the name was something else besides Battleship, I think it'd easily do 150 mil or so. But that name will probably draw people away.

The only really big movie star is Liam Neeson. Taylor Kitsch just had John Carter which imo did not really made him into a big star like he thought it would, and neither Brooklyn Decker (model) nor Rieanna (singer) would what you'd call a movie star.

 

[psylockolussus]

Battleship is gonna perform like the 1st G.I. Joe movie, I doubt it will get $200 million in domestic box-office.

 

[Brad Redfield]

Wow, boxoffice.com's projection for OW is $170,000,000. That's certainly a bump up from their initial $155+ projection.

 

[Quasimod0]

170 isnt TOO bad.

 

[BigThor]

One thing I've seen about fan box office discussions (and I've been reading them regularly since they first started appearing on the internet) is that strong optimism for any film with a hardcore fanbase is generally decried as immature and marks people out as those who don't know what they're talking about while grossly underestimating is a lot more forgivable by so called forum 'experts'.

Yeah I've noticed that too and when this film crosses the 1 billion mark watch the haters cry it's because "3D" and "inflation" etc.

Haters/detractors are so freakin predictable it's pathetic.

Wow, boxoffice.com's projection for OW is $170,000,000. That's certainly a bump up from their initial $155+ projection.

A 170 million opening would literally make me go and Thor II-III, Cap 2, IM 3 might have budgets of over 200 million.

 

[Avenger]

A $170 million opening would be insane. In a very, very good way. I hope it happens!

 

[Raiden]

A 170 million opening would literally make me go and Thor II-III, Cap 2, IM 3 might have budgets of over 200 million.

That would be amazing, but I doubt Marvel would give all the sequels 200 million budget to work with; even with Disney backing them they still have to have some restraint financially. But I hope even with a reasonable budget like 150 mil, they can find ways to make the movies look more grandeur than they're supposed to be.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Yeah I've noticed that too and when this film crosses the 1 billion mark watch the haters cry it's because "3D" and "inflation" etc.

Haters/detractors are so freakin predictable it's pathetic.



A 170 million opening would literally make me go and Thor II-III, Cap 2, IM 3 might have budgets of over 200 million.

I'd say that IM3 has the best chance to get a $200+ million budget but for Thor II and Cap 2, I'd say $175-185 is what they'll get.

 

[BigThor]

That would be amazing, but I doubt Marvel would give all the sequels 200 million budget to work with; even with Disney backing them they still have to have some restraint financially. But I hope even with a reasonable budget like 150 mil, they can find ways to make the movies look more grandeur than they're supposed to be.

Yeah you're right, but I certainly want them recieve atleast a 25-35 million budget boost none of them should go back to 150 mill.

Now THOR II-III on the other hand definately deserve a 200 million dollar budget considering the size of Thor's universe.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah you're right, but I certainly want them recieve atleast a 25-35 million budget boost none of them should go back to 150 mill.

Now THOR II-III on the other hand definately deserve a 200 million dollar budget considering the size of Thor's universe.

As much as I like Thor, the first movie's profits don't really show the ability to spend so much on a solo flick.

 

[Iceman]

QFT. We can see that attitude in this very thread. Even now when the numbers are rolling in, we keep getting admonished not to look at it like fans.

Avatar was the funniest. All around the internet (including our very own Hype ), anyone who made large predictions was jumped on pretty quickly. Once the figures started rolling in people would just keep moving the benchmark of success week to week till it became "well Avatar box office is really not impressive compared to GWTW inflation adjusted". Hahaha.

 

[Xeno]

I'll believe it when I see it. Until then, there is no such thing as 'hard numbers'. It has yet to showcase its legs in the foreign market, and be released in America and face the competition.

The only film I see making a billion thus far (guaranteed) is The Hobbit.

The "hard numbers" I cited are the numbers coming out from actual box office receipts. You are still arguing from your own subjective opinions, while I am saying that your opinions are being supplanted by objective fact. We can watch the numbers roll in from here on out; opinions are no longer relevant. At the end of the day the numbers will tell the tale.

 

[BigThor]

As much as I like Thor, the first movie's profits don't really show the ability to spend so much on a solo flick.

It grossed 450 million I can see it with a sequel that costs than half of that, also the solo films are going to receive a large fanbase boost after TA.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

I have to say this is I'm getting goosebumps. Tracking the boxoffice of this thing is like anticipating the arrival of a super hurricane. And what's even better is that there are two more like it making landfall in a couple of months. "Comic book fatigue", my ass.

It grossed 450 million I can see it with a sequel that costs than half of that, also the solo films are going to receive a large fanbase boost after TA.

I'm giving Marvel's 2011 slate the benefit of the doubt and just chalk it up to a poor year in the movies.

 

[protoctista]

Guys, I've seen it in the UK in a big city multiplex. There were two screens 100% full, day 1. And queues for the later showings. I'm not a fan, I'm a movie buff, and I know the UK market very well. I've also looked at what's happening overseas - and it's insane. You might not have the movie in the US yet, but I can guarantee you this movie is like a rolling cataclysm.

Don't even bother telling me it wont make a billion. GTFO. You're a terrible, terrible gambler if that's your bet.

 

[Shadowlord X]

Yeah sorry but THOR was very successful. And as BigThor rightfully said the fanbase is going to get a HUGE boost after THE AVENGERS, and Chris Hemsworth's star status may get another boost from SWatH, etc.

I could see them taking a chance and going with a $200 million budget for THOR II.

The sequel for CA:TFA should, IMO, be budgeted for around $160 million. CAP's a difficult character to estimate character wrt the GA interest.

 

[BigThor]

I'm giving Marvel's 2011 slate the benefit of the doubt and just chalk it up to a poor year in the movies.

Nah I'll just chalk it up to Thor not being popular at all before his solo movie so his film grossing nearly half a billion was very impressive imo.

You can't really expect Thor or Cap to pull in Batman or Spider-Man numbers since they're nowhere near as popular or well known.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It grossed 450 million I can see it with a sequel that costs than half of that, also the solo films are going to receive a large fanbase boost after TA.

When you think about advertising and the cost to make the first film, it made an ok profit, but not that big. If it cost 230+ million to produce and advertize the sequel, we are asking for a nice jump in the gross. Not impossible of course, but I am not sure how likely. Cap has no chance at a 200 million budget imo.

But I do hope you are right. Thor is my favorite of these films so far, but you can feel the limitations of the budget at points in the film.

 

[BigThor]

When you think about advertising and the cost to make the first film, it made an ok profit, but not that big. If it cost 230+ million to produce and advertize the sequel, we are asking for a nice jump in the gross. Not impossible of course, but I am not sure how likely. Cap has no chance at a 200 million budget.

But I do hope you are right. Thor is my favorite of these films so far, but you can feel the limitations of the budget at points in the film.

It grossed a alot more than the FF 1 which received a 30 million dollar boost for it's sequel, plus I'm pretty sure that THOR II is going to cross 200 mill domestically after it's TA boost.

 

[protoctista]

UK figures 3rd highest single day opener http://www.forbes.com/sites/markhug...ers-blows-the-doors-off-the-box-office-in-uk/

Biggest or second biggest opener of all time in:

Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, India (and it was going up against Tezz, which is massive for them), Philippines.

There's only 4 other countries its actually opened in - France, Germany, Romania and Norway - who are never good indicators of general trends. The problem is those countries already had Battleship out. So in France and Germany, these films will have definite legs after the weekend and longer.


We still haven't had China, Japan, or Russia. Once they start making records, Marvel will have this in the bag.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It grossed a alot more than the FF 1 which received a 30 million dollar boost for it's sequel, plus I'm pretty sure that THOR II is going to cross 200 mill domestically after it's TA boost.

A lot of that was arrogance and stupid contracts. I hope Marvel Studios has learned the lesson of the films that came before.

Not sure how much the boost will be overall, but I fear that TA could somehow hurt the solo films, Iron-Man excluded. Initiate viewings should be up, but the multiple viewing might now be. After all, you can just go home and watch all the heroes together.