The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[KangConquers]

Lol, I just realized Avengers already trounced Battleship's entire international cume in 5 days, even though it's been released in far fewer countries so far. Maybe I have been overestimating that one's potential to dent this movie's box office.

I figure Battleship will open to about $40 M in the states, which is tough for any movie to beat in it's 3rd weekend.

 

[bonzob2000]

Yeah, I'd say the only way it beats Battleship is if it's one of those Dark Knight style phenoms or if Battleship flops hard, or both. Because currently, even if Avengers opens on the high end of expectations, at 170 million say, and then does very respectable 50 percent drops for the next two weekends (which is not guaranteed even with strong word of mouth), it would be at 85 million on weekend two, and 42.5 on weekend three opposite Battleship. I can see Battleship opening in the 40-50 million range quite easily.

 

[Gamma Burst]

kangconquers you saw TA?, because in my country they broke record, and many people who never saw IM , CA, Thor or Hulk go to the theaters see avengers, the word of mouth is insane, no one dislike this movie here. the parameters you have i think not aplly for this movie, maybe i be wrong, but i think TA will do huge legs, is the kind of movie people will see many times.

I can confirm this.

 

[psylockolussus]

2002 Spider-man 1 - Week 3 went up against Attack of the Clones
2003 X2 - Week 3 went against Matrix Reloaded
2004 Van Helsing - faced Troy and Shrek 2 in following weeks
2005 weakest May first weekend - Kingdom of Heaven flopped with 20m open, Revenge of the Sith was the big one this year in May.
2006 - MI 3 - faced Poseiden, DaVinci Code and X-men 3 in following weeks
2007 - Spider-man 3 - faced Shrek the 3rd and POTC:AWE in weeks 3 and 4
2008 - Iron Man - faced Chronicles of Narnia and Indy 4 in weeks 3 and 4
2009 - X-men Origins - faced Star Trek, Angels and Demons and Terminator Salvation
2010 - Iron Man 2 - faced Shrek 4, in week 3, and Prince of Persia, Sex in the City 2 in week 4
2011 - Thor - faced POTC 4, Kung Fu Panda 2, Hangover 2 and suprise hit Brides Maid's that started below Thor in week 2 but had great WOM.

This is why I love summer. So many highly-anticipated movies! t:

 

[samsnee]

I have no doubt that TA will have legs, but I see no chance of it coming ahead of MIB3. I know the last one left a bad taste in people's mouths, but despite what internet message boards say, Will Smith is still a popular actor. I don't think it will open with a $100M weekend, but it should have enough to come out on top. After that, it will drop like a rock.

 

[TheGambler]

So, where is the tracking for Dark Shadows? Film is coming out on May 10, and we usually get a tracking report at least 2-3 weeks before the film is released, especially a summer film.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Boxoffice.com have it at 43m OW, 170m total.

 

[TheGambler]

Boxoffice.com have it at 43m OW, 170m total.

$108M total actually, but that's a prediction. I'm talking about tracking. Like we got one for Hunger Games, Avengers, etc...

 

[ElMariachi]

Transformers 3 made $145 million alone in China. Can Avengers come close to matching that?

 

[Chewy]

Transformers 3 made $145 million alone in China. Can Avengers come close to matching that?

No.

 

[Raiden]

No.

I'll be happy if it comes close to that figure.

 

[Chewy]

It won't. It should do a little over half of that.

 

[DOOZlovesBOOZ]

It won't. It should do a little over half of that.

Why was TF3 so big there chewy? just a phenomenon?

 

[Chewy]

Yeah the Chinese moviegoers just went ape**** over it

 

[saphilone]

It will probably make at least 20 times what Avatar made.

 

[ElMariachi]

Avengers is kind of in the same mold as TF3. I am curious to see how it does in China. Also what it ends up doing in Brazil and Mexico.

 

[Matchstick]

The local multiplex I'm seeing it at just added three 3:15 a.m. showings (two 3D and one non-3D) for Thursday night/Friday morning, in addition to the four they already have for midnight.

I guess demand must be pretty high.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

And keep in mind that part of the fun of this movie (from what ive read and heard) is the humor. That humor is NOT gonna be translated accurately into Chinese. The sight gags sure, but the great dialogue will be lost.

You could take all the dialogue from a Michael Bay movie and transpose it to the Avengers, and it wouldnt make a bit of difference to a Chinese audience. So one of Whedon's greatest atributes will have no bearing on the box office.

 

[ElMariachi]

The local multiplex I'm seeing it at just added three 3:15 a.m. showings (two 3D and one non-3D) for Thursday night/Friday morning, in addition to the four they already have for midnight.

I guess demand must be pretty high.

3:15 AM showings? Wow, I have never heard of that before. That's pretty impressive to have 7 midnight showings at a single theater.

 

[Chewy]

Lots of movies add 3am and 6am showings if the midnights are selling out

 

[BrollySupersj]

Me and my dad are predicting that...Avengers will make 200 million opening weekend.

I certainly think it has the potential to at least.

 

[Superhero 101]

I think it will make around 160-170 opening weekend

 

[Nokio]

Me and my dad predicting that...Avengers will make 200 million opening weekend.

I certainly think it has the potential to at least.

If TA breaks 200 mil OW it's gonna change Hollywood. I hope it does but I doubt it. 200 mil is a tall order.

 

[Nokio]

3:15 AM showings? Wow, I have never heard of that before. That's pretty impressive to have 7 midnight showings at a single theater.

What? The regal near me had the last freaking Twilight in all their theaters at midnight.

 

[Nokio]

I think many people are exaggerating Avengers domestic legs. The last few years have been all about big openings and weak legs, ever since Spider-Man 3. Anyone predicting $500 M domestic for Avengers needs to lay off the pipe; the $350-400 M range is more likely.

If it makes in that range, it'll have to clear, not match $600 M foreign to guarantee $1 B. I know I'm splitting hairs right now, but I see it stopping in the low to mid-900 Ms.

Finally, someone with some logical reasoning about BO numbers. I too is hoping or being optimistic that Avengers opens with a record 200 million but I'm a realist and as much as the fanboy in me want this, it more then likely isn't gonna happen. I'm thinking between 140-160 maybe 170 mil with a final gross domestically of between 350-400 mil, maybe 420 mil tops. I think it will take between 700mil to maybe 850 mil for total WW gross. A billion? Maybe but doubtful. I think a lot of fans are really overestimating the general audience's interest in this film.