The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[mc7791]

Its an achievement in film-making and planning also. Not just in the cbm realm either. Not many movies make this much cash, or have the hope of doing so. And an enormous amount of planning went into this film. And it all worked out and payed off. Bravo.

I agree this looks to go beyond just a comic book/fantasy/sci-fi blockbuster type movie. through proper planning and project coordination and choosing the right person for the job Marvel Studios have shown how a great movie is made. This also goes outside of just a movie with a huge budget and a lot of hype(but applies to those kind of films as well)

 

[Tony Stark]

Pardon me, it will be their 3rd Q results. Disney's fiscal year runs November 1 - Oct 31.

 

[Iceman]

Disney will be thanking their lucky stars that they'll have something positive to report for 2nd Q earnings after the debacle that was John Carter.

However as good as Avengers is going to do (and Brave for Pixar), I have a feeling Disney will miss their earnings for the year. That's how bad of a bomb John Carter was.

It'll be good for future forecasts though. Imagine if they'd switched places. Marvel Studios would be shutting down right about now.

 

[DarthAlani]

I would love for this film to beat the pile of **** Transformers and Pirates films.

 

[KangConquers]

So...will it beat Iron Man's total run by next Monday?

 

[protoctista]

UK figures just hit the roof:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-17923372

"Marvel Avengers Assemble is the number one film in the UK and Ireland after taking £15.78m in its opening week.

The film sees comic book superheroes Iron Man, The Hulk, Thor and Captain America team up to save the earth.

Its weekend takings exceeded those of Spider-Man 3, which had an £11.83m opening in 2007, and The Dark Knight, which made £11.19m on its 2008 debut."

That makes it only the 12th biggest opening of all time for the UK box office (unadjusted). HOWEVER - that's only because of the UK fanbase for the Harry Potter franchise. Almost all theaters in the UK go all out on special midnight showings for the Harry Potter films - which they didn't do for The Avengers. Of the other 11 films with higher opening weekends, 8 of them are Harry Potter films, and another two are family sequels (Toy Story 3 and Shrek 2) (see here)

Also, remembering that it's not a sequel, not opening on a holiday weekend for the UK, not an adaptation, and in no other sense plays to previous factors of success for the UK box office - this is insane.



Because of this, I'm going to predict very strong legs for this movie in the UK throughout this week - and a very low drop-off for this weekend.

 

[Marvin]

I would love for this film to beat the pile of **** Transformers and Pirates films.

The Dark Knight sits at 11th place with $1,001.9.

Avengers will probably take a higher spot than that. I'm pretty sure it will land somewhere between 6th, 7th, or maybe 8th.

 

[Nokio]

Well lets just hope the US critics don't derail the positive buzz with their negative reviews. It's quite possible they can and very few movies are critic proof. The last two transformers are prime examples of totally critic proof films more then any film I've seen in my life time. I know the SW prequels were lackluster but SW is just such a phenom that it was a given for the prequels to be critic but TF was a new franchise.

 

[itchyscratch]

Variety report on the latest $260m numbers ...

http://www.boffo.com/2012/05/box-office-avengers-reaches-260m-abroad.html

 

[DOOZlovesBOOZ]

This is great news for MS! Glad i could help the cause with my two tickets on thurs midnight (GF and real 3d), four tickets friday (2d with friends) and 5 tickets sat (family,GF and imax 3d).

 

[Ultimatehero]

Two thursday, two friday, two saturday and then a couple of more times after that.

 

[Raiden]

Disney will be thanking their lucky stars that they'll have something positive to report for 2nd Q earnings after the debacle that was John Carter.

However as good as Avengers is going to do (and Brave for Pixar), I have a feeling Disney will miss their earnings for the year. That's how bad of a bomb John Carter was.

Yeah, JC was so bad that even the head of the Disney's film division lost his job over it. However, if TA can cross 1B or very close to it, it could recoup some of Disney's losses, although it would also depend if Pixar's Brave do as well as predicted.

 

[Silver Surfer]

So much for the theory that Comic Book movies have run their course....

 

[Iceman]

UK figures just hit the roof:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-17923372

"Marvel Avengers Assemble is the number one film in the UK and Ireland after taking £15.78m in its opening week.

The film sees comic book superheroes Iron Man, The Hulk, Thor and Captain America team up to save the earth.

Its weekend takings exceeded those of Spider-Man 3, which had an £11.83m opening in 2007, and The Dark Knight, which made £11.19m on its 2008 debut."

That makes it only the 12th biggest opening of all time for the UK box office (unadjusted). HOWEVER - that's only because of the UK fanbase for the Harry Potter franchise. Almost all theaters in the UK go all out on special midnight showings for the Harry Potter films - which they didn't do for The Avengers. Of the other 11 films with higher opening weekends, 8 of them are Harry Potter films, and another two are family sequels (Toy Story 3 and Shrek 2) (see here)

Also, remembering that it's not a sequel, not opening on a holiday weekend for the UK, not an adaptation, and in no other sense plays to previous factors of success for the UK box office - this is insane.



Because of this, I'm going to predict very strong legs for this movie in the UK throughout this week - and a very low drop-off for this weekend.

Thanks for that. I've been looking for some good UK figures/analysis. It is doing better here than I first thought for sure.

 

[Marvin]

After both Tron and JC, Disney finally has a live action hit. Buy Marvel is their best move in a long, little while.

 

[DOOZlovesBOOZ]

I'm just happy to see MS getting rewarded for all the passtime they have provided me over the past few years.

 

[Tony Stark]

After both Tron and JC, Disney finally has a live action hit. Buy Marvel is their best move in a long, little while.

You're forgetting Mars needs moms. Production budget 150M, WW gross 39M. Tron actually broke even, but it was well below what they expected.

 

[Tony Stark]

So much for the theory that Comic Book movies have run their course....

They haven't so long as they are good movies. Ghost Rider SOV is the perfect example of what a bad comic book movie will do with audience expectation. They ran that on a shoe string budget, and still no one gave a crap.

Can you imagine if Fantastic Four had released this year? It would probably gross 40-50M.

 

[Marvin]

You're forgetting Mars needs moms. Production budget 150M, WW gross 39M. Tron actually broke even, but it was well below what they expected.

true, topped of with pixar's recent performance, Disney really needed this.

Bigger than THG was for Lionsgate!

I have a feeling THG cost a fraction of what TA did. And we don't even know if TA topped it's opening yet(It will be close I think).
-not forgetting THG's ain't no slouch domestically.

 

[protoctista]

The other thing to remember about the UK box office is that it's not all about the opening weekend. I think this is quite different from the US, where the size of the opening weekend seems to dictate how much drop off it will have for the following weeks.

Take for example Mamma Mia - it opened substantially lower than The Dark Knight's figures (like, a third less if I remember correctly) but then went on to break the UK box office record, powering through the charts in second/third place for months.

Similarly, The Dark Knight saw practically zero decrease in takings on its second week compared to its first. The week after it took a big drop - and then it returned to #1 in the charts the week after.

I read an article on this that basically said that the UK market doesn't have the same capacity or interest in big 'event weekend' openers. Cinema goers are more likely to go during the week after a release, or even later. The European market as a whole is a lot less predictable.

Therefore, given how little Avengers had going for it for its opening weekend (see previous post) - it's very likely to get high box office figures from this week and for next weekend.

 

[spider-neil]

it's true what you say about the UK market. a lot of people I know don't want the hassle of sell outs, crowded theatres etc so wait a week when everything has calmed down.

 

[Chewy]

I have a feeling THG cost a fraction of what TA did. And we don't even know if TA topped it's opening yet(It will be close I think).
-not forgetting THG's ain't no slouch domestically.

It also grossed more than the Hunger Games overseas in only 6 days

Not to take anything away from THG's great run, of course

 

[Marvin]

It also grossed more than the Hunger Games overseas in only 6 days

Not to take anything away from THG's great run, of course

I suppose it did it best not being a sequel to 4 films at the same time.
Not taking a thing away from TA.

 

[Suzanne78]

Does anyone know which movie had the fastest run to a billion? Because it seems to me that TA's OS performance and projected domestic opening may put it on track to fastest billion-dollar earner. If everything stays on track.

 

[Revenant]

I agree this looks to go beyond just a comic book/fantasy/sci-fi blockbuster type movie. through proper planning and project coordination and choosing the right person for the job Marvel Studios have shown how a great movie is made. This also goes outside of just a movie with a huge budget and a lot of hype(but applies to those kind of films as well)

Let's not **** our selves here. The Avengers is in fact a comic book movie and nothing more. It will sell a ton of tickets but don't be a fool, other than cramming a bunch of super heroes into one film this movie does nothing to transcend the genre.