I don't think Rises will make more money than TDK, but that doesn't mean it won't be a better film. Some people are often quick to claim that Heath Ledger's Joker is what made TDK so damn great, and while that's partially true, we need to remember that Nolan as an artist is only getting better and better. Nolan was the star of Inception as far as I'm concerned. Inception, dare I say it, is Nolan's best film, even better than TDK, and that's strictly my personal opinion.
If we're only looking at the 3 Batman films to compare against each other, here's how I see the duality between Rises and TDK: While TDK had Heath's incredible acting, Christopher Nolan himself will be the star of Rises. I think Nolan's evolved directing skills and his eye for the camera, along with Oscar Winner Wally Pfister's evolved cinematography, will combine into an experience better than TDK. This includes action scenes, plot, emotion, camera angles, lighting, Zimmer's score, editing, character development /
arc... None of these things require the presence of The Joker. A damn good movie only requires damn good use of movie elements.
So can Rises surpass TDK? Of course it can. And it probably will. But if Box Office is what we're concerned with, we're sadly ignoring what the word "surpass" means when it comes to Art, and we're instead focusing on $$$.
Nolan's going to give us one hell of a movie. That's ALL we need to worry about.
My Personal Preference of Nolan's Films:
1. Inception
2. The Dark Knight
3. Batman Begins
4. The Prestige
5. Insomnia
6. Following
7. Memento