The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - Part 10

[Panacea]

As I see the plans for Dark Phoenix roll out, I'm anticipating a Sony-like deal with Disney for the X-Men sometime in the early 2020s.

What incentive is there for that? X-Men is a good earner for Fox.

 

[Docker2.0]

What incentive is there for that? X-Men is a good earner for Fox.

Right now. I can easily see that starting to change in the near future once the Deadpool craze wears off.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

First, I don't consider "Eh" as a miss since most fans and general audiences enjoyed the Wolverine very much. Second, even with this list, it still demonstrates that FOX is more successful with the X-men than with other comic book characters. In fact they've been recently successful regardless of Bryan Singer not directing especially after the releases of Deadpool, Logan, and Legion tv series. No matter what people think of Simon Kinberg, it's still too early to assume that the X-men franchise is doomed because the next films could surprise us just as the Wonder Woman film did.

With a solid plan and strategy, Fox could do amazing things, but they don't have a solid plan.

And all of the directors who have made good films (Bryan Singer, James Mangold, Tim Miller and Matthew Vaughn) have all moved on.

Yes, they could get lucky and Simon Kinberg could show us that the complete crap he has done in the past didn't really represent his capabilities, but a good studio doesn't just roll the dice and hope they get lucky. A good studio stacks the odds in their favor by hiring proven talent and giving them the resources they need.

 

[wobbly]

Let's step back for a moment and think about the extremely unlikely hypothetical in which Kinberg delivers an amazing X-Film.

What happens next? That would be 2018 and the X-Men would be riding high with their new Bryan Singer. In that situation, would Kinberg and Fox turn their backs on X-Men to gamble with FF, or would Kinberg start working on 2020 and 2022 X-Films?

I have to imagine the latter is far more likely. Kinberg would have to recognize he got lucky and his chances of continuing to be successful would lie with X-Men rather than FF (and I don't think Fox management would argue), so he'd have his hands full with X-Men until after the FF rights had already reverted.

Yup. Thinking about it we can break down the options.
1) Dark Phoenix doesn't do well. Kinberg not trusted again, Fox continue with the planned spin offs and TV, whilst fishing again for someone to take over the core X-Men films.

2) Dark Phoenix does do well. Kinberg continues to helm those films. Emboldened Fox more likely to pursue further X-verse expansion with spin off films & TV.

Neither would really impact on the fate of the FF rights. If anything the better the X-Men and the extras do the less incentive for Fox to chase another problematic FF reboot.

 

[NealKenneth]

Right now. I can easily see that starting to change in the near future once the Deadpool craze wears off.

Exactly.

Deadpool was lightning in a bottle and a fragile property because of it. They couldn't even keep the same director for the sequel...not a good sign! Logan was the other hit they had last year, but that was because of Jackman, who's finally retired. No room for growth there. X-Men overall is a decent, but not great, moneymaker for Fox.

Imagine the discussions we'd be having right now if Deadpool had not been a hit, or even if it had been just a minor success. That should give you an idea of how fragile the X-Men films are at Fox.

 

[WeaponXCII]

Exactly.

Deadpool was lightning in a bottle and a fragile property because of it. They couldn't even keep the same director for the sequel...not a good sign! Logan was the other hit they had last year, but that was because of Jackman, who's finally retired. No room for growth there. X-Men overall is a decent, but not great, moneymaker for Fox.

Imagine the discussions we'd be having right now if Deadpool had not been a hit, or even if it had been just a minor success. That should give you an idea of how fragile the X-Men films are at Fox.

Speaking of Deadpool- and I apologize in advance if I or someone else asked this before; I'm not really sure, and as far as I can tell, my post history doesn't indicate so- what does the success or failure mean for us in the "Keep Hope Alive" faction? I've read that the Deadpool and X-Men rights aren't tied together, but that was only one source. Should we support Deadpool 2 by seeing it, even if it means supporting the greater X-Men franchise, thereby extending the latter's rights?

 

[InCali]

Exactly.

Deadpool was lightning in a bottle and a fragile property because of it. They couldn't even keep the same director for the sequel...not a good sign! Logan was the other hit they had last year, but that was because of Jackman, who's finally retired. No room for growth there. X-Men overall is a decent, but not great, moneymaker for Fox.

Imagine the discussions we'd be having right now if Deadpool had not been a hit, or even if it had been just a minor success. That should give you an idea of how fragile the X-Men films are at Fox.

Yeah. I agree. When FC and then DoFP hit, I thought "maybe" it was the start of Fox getting on a roll with X-Men, but thought Apocalypse would be a key to where the franchise was going. Unfortunately..........

I think it's almost impossible to keep a certain level of quality to these franchises over time. Fox hasn't been able to do it and neither has WB (depending on what you think....we all know there's a lot of controversy regarding the quality of Snyder's work).

I think Marvel has had a couple of lows (TDW and IM2 for me), but has pretty much mastered the art of maintaining a certain level of quality while turning out a few really good movies.

Generally speaking, I think WB is in about the same position that Fox was post DoFP; they've got a well received hit, but need to keep it going. Fox wasn't able to do that and we'll see about JL and later movies.

I don't know about Marvel getting X rights back for quite some time. That would be a sign that Fox is completely out of the CBM game and I don't see that happening while there's some money to be made. A crossover? I don't see it happening as there's really nothing in it for Marvel. Their table is set. I imagine there will be some changes as events emerge, but they know the direction they are heading in.

 

[InCali]

Speaking of Deadpool- and I apologize in advance if I or someone else asked this before; I'm not really sure, and as far as I can tell, my post history doesn't indicate so- what does the success or failure mean for us in the "Keep Hope Alive" faction? I've read that the Deadpool and X-Men rights aren't tied together, but that was only one source. Should we support Deadpool 2 by seeing it, even if it means supporting the greater X-Men franchise, thereby extending the latter's rights?

I'm a keep hope alive type and, while it may sound odd, I'm seeing DP2 no matter what. X and Marvel can co-exist separately. I'm much more interested in seeing the FF return to Marvel as Fox has just butchered my fav SH team.

 

[Random490]

I'm a keep hope alive type and, while it may sound odd, I'm seeing DP2 no matter what. X and Marvel can co-exist separately. I'm much more interested in seeing the FF return to Marvel as Fox has just butchered my fav SH team.

It helps that in the comics X-men usually have their own thing going on so it feels much easier to separate them from the rest of the Universe. There's just a ton of characters, teams, lore, and story lines that you can make a whole separate cinematic universe with just that one property alone. I don't think FF has anywhere near the potential that X-men has as a franchise, but their concept, character, and lore would be a perfect fit for the MCU. FF returning to Marvel would be the best outcome for that property. As long as Fox keeps the trend we see with Logan and Deadpool going I'm perfectly fine with them keeping X-men, even if they occasionally make a bad film.

 

[NealKenneth]

Don't let yourself be a casualty of the rights war! If you want to see DP2, see it, and if it's great than Fox deserves your money even if you want to see the X-Men in the MCU someday.

The details of the deals also don't matter...deals can be written and rewritten. Anything is possible, and I can totally imagine a new deal where the X-Men is shared, the FF goes to Disney totally and Deadpool stays at Fox totally. If there were bets, my money would be on a X-Men television series and a Wolverine Netflix series by 2025, joint ventures by Marvel Studios and Fox, much like Gifted is right now.

 

[InCali]

It helps that in the comics X-men usually have their own thing going on so it feels much easier to separate them from the rest of the Universe. There's just a ton of characters, teams, lore, and story lines that you can make a whole separate cinematic universe with just that one property alone. I don't think FF has anywhere near the potential that X-men has as a franchise, but their concept, character, and lore would be a perfect fit for the MCU. FF returning to Marvel would be the best outcome for that property. As long as Fox keeps the trend we see with Logan and Deadpool going I'm perfectly fine with them keeping X-men, even if they occasionally make a bad film.

Yeah. I'm fine with Fox if they can make good X movies. They've just been, shall we say, ERRATIC and it doesn't help the franchise.

Don't let yourself be a casualty of the rights war! If you want to see DP2, see it, and if it's great than Fox deserves your money even if you want to see the X-Men in the MCU someday.

The details of the deals also don't matter...deals can be written and rewritten. Anything is possible, and I can totally imagine a new deal where the X-Men is shared, the FF goes to Disney totally and Deadpool stays at Fox totally. If there were bets, my money would be on a X-Men television series and a Wolverine Netflix series by 2025, joint ventures by Marvel Studios and Fox, much like Gifted is right now.

Ultimately, Fox controls their own destiny with the property. If they can make good X movies, they'll be fine. If not, it hurts the franchise. They've already done more than enough damage to FF and I don't forgive them for that.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Speaking of Deadpool- and I apologize in advance if I or someone else asked this before; I'm not really sure, and as far as I can tell, my post history doesn't indicate so- what does the success or failure mean for us in the "Keep Hope Alive" faction? I've read that the Deadpool and X-Men rights aren't tied together, but that was only one source. Should we support Deadpool 2 by seeing it, even if it means supporting the greater X-Men franchise, thereby extending the latter's rights?

My nightmare scenario (and one I'm afraid isn't too far-fetched) is Deadpool 2, Dark Phoenix a and New Mutants all disappoint. What would happen then?

Would Fox start eying FF as an alternative?

I think that's the worst-case scenario for us. But I'm still not going to see those films even though their success could help my interests.

 

[Zarex]

Speaking of Deadpool- and I apologize in advance if I or someone else asked this before; I'm not really sure, and as far as I can tell, my post history doesn't indicate so- what does the success or failure mean for us in the "Keep Hope Alive" faction? I've read that the Deadpool and X-Men rights aren't tied together, but that was only one source. Should we support Deadpool 2 by seeing it, even if it means supporting the greater X-Men franchise, thereby extending the latter's rights?

From what I've read Pool is on a separate more favorable contract that Marvel allowed FOX to tie into the existing X-Men licensing agreement. One of the reasons Ward's solo was finally green lit was that his rights were about to revert.

 

[Panacea]

Right now. I can easily see that starting to change in the near future once the Deadpool craze wears off.

Why? This sounds like wishful thinking.

 

[InCali]

Why? This sounds like wishful thinking.

The danger I see with the X franchise (which I'm personally fine with Fox doing if they can just develop some consistency) is that, well, they've been all over the map. I recognize that Logan was good (though I didn't personally like it much) and the Deadpool was good (which I REALLY liked a lot), FC and DoFP were both good, but Apocalypse was, well, rather mediocre at best and it could have been awesome. I hate it when movies underperform like that. So, I'll say the recent track record is better, but Jackman is no more and "if" the new director doesn't nail DP, that could spell trouble.

AND, if they frell with the FF anymore, it might piss me off enough to boycott (but I'd be hard pressed to not watch a CBM that is well reviewed).

 

[Spiderine]

DP 2 is going to make money for FOX. The only question will be can it be more successful than the first one? I doubt it will but a moneymaker nonetheless. DP will be a successful series of films. Looking forward to it

All this other crap they got coming sounds like garbage so far. Maybe I am a bit premature in my judgement but my expectations for New Mutants and Phoenix have sunk to an all time low. I am about as excited for these as I am for Venom and Thelma and Louise Black Cat/Sable.

 

[InCali]

DP 2 is going to make money for FOX. The only question will be can it be more successful than the first one? I doubt it will but a moneymaker nonetheless. DP will be a successful series of films. Looking forward to it

All this other crap they got coming sounds like garbage so far. Maybe I am a bit premature in my judgement but my expectations for New Mutants and Phoenix have sunk to an all time low. I am about as excited for these as I am for Venom and Thelma and Louise Black Cat/Sable.

I don't doubt for one second that DP2 will make money, but I'm thinking further down the road. The question to me is "Will it be good and keep the DP momentum going?" DP was DIFFERENT; as was GotG and it's difficult to keep THAT going. If it makes money, but ends up being disappointing, that bodes ill for it's long term prospects. That's what I was talking about in my last post. Jackman is gone, Apocalypse was somewhat disappointing (and I think I'm being kind), and "if" DP2 doesn't do some heavy lifting, where does that leave Fox with Dark Phoenix, Gambit, etc.? Not in a good position IMO. Fox, of course, knows this and I HOPE they make a great DP2 movie. Even if they do, they don't have the goodwill or public trust that Marvel has built up and can't afford missteps like Apocalypse.

That's my take anyway.

 

[Darepool]

Don't forget about X-Force, that has R-rated billion dollar franchise potential. DP and likely X-Force will be the big money makers for Fox going forward. The X-Men just feel tired to me at this point. I think they should have done the clean reboot, oh well.

I've pretty much come to terms with the fact that the X-Men will always be at Fox, the only thing I have a little hope for is the FF. That's at least a possibility.

 

[InCali]

Don't forget about X-Force, that has R-rated billion dollar franchise potential. DP and likely X-Force will be the big money makers for Fox going forward. The X-Men just feel tired to me at this point. I think they should have done the clean reboot, oh well.

I've pretty much come to terms with the fact that the X-Men will always be at Fox, the only thing I have a little hope for is the FF. That's at least a possibility.

"Potential" does not equal "will be". It equals "may be". R rated franchises, no matter how good they are, have limited 1B potential. It's possible, but, IMO, unlikely. It's doesn't mean they can't make a lot of money, but 1B is some pretty high stratosphere; esp when no Fox CBM has really approached it.

Fox needs to focus on making consistently good movies and they haven't shown me they can do it.

 

[Darepool]

"Potential" does not equal "will be". It equals "may be". R rated franchises, no matter how good they are, have limited 1B potential. It's possible, but, IMO, unlikely. It's doesn't mean they can't make a lot of money, but 1B is some pretty high stratosphere; esp when no Fox CBM has really approached it.

Of course there are no guarantees, the point I was making is the X-Men aren't even the biggest bullet in Fox's chamber...If they play their cards right the DP an X-Force franchises could have a much greater box office impact then any X-Film ever had. That gives them more options going forward and lessons the risk of a potential full scale X-Men reboot in the future.

 

[NealKenneth]

the X-Men aren't even the biggest bullet in Fox's chamber...If they play their cards right the DP an X-Force franchises could have a much greater box office impact then any X-Film ever had.

Hmm...I'm really having a hard time imagining this. It's like saying Ant-Man and the Guardians will outgross the Avengers. Anything's possible though!

 

[Darepool]

Hmm...I'm really having a hard time imagining this. It's like saying Ant-Man and the Guardians will outgross the Avengers. Anything's possible though!

An R-rated Deadpool already made more then any X-Men film without the help of China, so there is little reason to think the sequel won't do as well or better if the quality is similar.

Now put DP on a team (with potentially a new Wolverine?) and it seems logical to think it would make even more.

 

[InCali]

An R-rated Deadpool already made more then any X-Men film without the help of China, so there is little reason to think the sequel won't do as well or better if the quality is similar.

Now put DP on a team (with potentially a new Wolverine?) and it seems logical to think it would make even more.

That might be kind of interesting and it's an interesting idea, but I don't think I'd say "put Black Panther/Doctor Strange/Captain Marvel on a team with a new Iron Man". Jackman is going to be tough to replace. To me, that's potentially a big problem going forward. If they didn't have DP, things would be looking grim.

 

[Darepool]

That might be kind of interesting and it's an interesting idea, but I don't think I'd say "put Black Panther/Doctor Strange/Captain Marvel on a team with a new Iron Man". Jackman is going to be tough to replace. To me, that's potentially a big problem going forward. If they didn't have DP, things would be looking grim.

I see your point, but BP and CM are unproven commodities at this point, whereas DP and Wolvie have just come off (arguably) Fox's two greatest achievement's in the genre. R-Rated like X-Force to boot.

 

[InCali]

I see your point, but BP and CM are unproven commodities at this point, whereas DP and Wolvie have just come off (arguably) Fox's two greatest achievement's in the genre. R-Rated like X-Force to boot.

The problem is that they don't have Jackman. They can trot someone out to play Wolverine, but that's a tall task (Think Stark/IM). I think BP is as close to a sure thing (a first movie) as Marvel has in it's bag. IMO, he got a big boost from CW. CM will, in all likelihood, get her (Carol Danvers) reveal in IW. Whether it goes over is yet to be seen, but Marvel is clearly putting a lot into BP and CM.

At this point, Marvel has a lot of sure fire ammo in their bag along with some more potential BO hits. They started after FoxMen, but kept to the plan, and are way ahead of everyone else. Their table is pretty much set from where I view things.

There's obviously a market for R rated movies in the genre, but those aren't going to be the BO titans. It leaves out a huge group of the movie going public.