The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - Part 12

[Willie Lumpkin]

The variety article I read makes it clear that the film side isn't doing well. If you can bump up your stock and dump a segment that isn't doing well while bringing in a lot of cash, why wouldn't you do it?

I asked yesterday if the bump up in stock prices might make this a little bit more expensive for Disney. I can see a lot of motivation for Fox to leak this, but if it falls apart, wouldn't that cause their stock to drop? I don't think shareholders want to see that.....

Having X-Men back has great implications for Captain Marvel. Having Doom is just crazy good.....THE best Marvel villain.

Oh, and sorry, in answer to your broader question, I don't think the upswing in stock price makes it much more difficult for Disney. Disney isn't buying them out completely, they're buying a piece of the company. The real value of that piece doesn't really fluctuate with the stock price.

 

[InCali]

If it becomes clear a deal won't happen, the stock will definitely drop - but that's the least of Fox's worries. Shareholders are reading articles like the one from Bloomberg above and saying: "Sell it already."

Fox is fast getting to a point at which they have to sell. If they don't, the board-members who stand in the way of a sale that is increasingly becoming a no-brainer to all the analysts and shareholders who are paying attention, could very well pay with their jobs.

If I were a board member, I would certainly be leaning toward taking any reasonable offer Disney is willing give.

I don't want to go all ape $#!T crazy happy just yet, but it's sounding like there really isn't any other alternative unless they can sell to their shareholders that Disney is low balling them. I know there aren't a lot of groups that have 30-40 billion laying around and even fewer that could make a profitable use of the Fox film division, but if I were Fox, I'd be out trying to dig up someone who wanted it so I could at least put "some" pressure on Disney.

Disney, I'm sure has some fairly smart people on their side and don't seem to have to be in a hurry.

 

[InCali]

Oh, and sorry, in answer to your broader question, I don't think the upswing in stock price makes it much more difficult for Disney. Disney isn't buying them out completely, they're buying a piece of the company. The real value of that piece doesn't really fluctuate with the stock price.

Thanks. That makes sense.

 

[Big Bang]

I asked yesterday if the bump up in stock prices might make this a little bit more expensive for Disney. I can see a lot of motivation for Fox to leak this, but if it falls apart, wouldn't that cause their stock to drop? I don't think shareholders want to see that.....

Having X-Men back has great implications for Captain Marvel. Having Doom is just crazy good.....THE best Marvel villain.

Yes, potentially. In fact failure to secure a deal of any kind at this point can now very possibly have the effect of lowering their stock price. While Fox can make the claim all it wants publicly that it has the scale the compete, the market quietly disagrees. Beyond this current potential deal, their attempt to acquire Time Warner 2 years ago was also an admission that they lack scale to compete more effectively in this changing market.

Could it drive up the price for Disney? Sure. However since Disney has a track record of making their acquisitions work they can more easily have options to help defer those costs of acquisition. The warm market to the deal would allow them to (for example) sell bonds to fund the buyout, deferring some of the costs to long term debt, to which in the immediate they only have to pay a fraction of in the form of interest payments (kind of like a credit card, but with far lower rates). This also helps refrain from depleting their cash reserves. If the acquisition translates over time to favorable returns then the deal would could potentially pay for itself in part.

The favorable reaction of the market is very key. Assuming Fox leaked it out serves to drive up the potential costs, but also convince Disney to pay the higher premium by showing that they options available to cover the costs. Either way it is a major gamble, but one that could pay off for Disney in spades.

 

[Darepool]

I don't want to go all ape $#!T crazy happy just yet, but it's sounding like there really isn't any other alternative unless they can sell to their shareholders that Disney is low balling them. I know there aren't a lot of groups that have 30-40 billion laying around and even fewer that could make a profitable use of the Fox film division, but if I were Fox, I'd be out trying to dig up someone who wanted it so I could at least put "some" pressure on Disney.

Disney, I'm sure has some fairly smart people on their side and don't seem to have to be in a hurry.

I'd be surprised other companies, or even companies that have goals of being big players in the future don't start zeroing in on Fox. Disney could be outbid if they are not careful.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

While Fox can make the claim all it wants publicly that it has the scale the compete, the market quietly disagrees.

Hearing these lines from Fox is starting to remind me of people at Fox telling us Fant4stic was a good film.

 

[NHawk19]

As of today 11 of the MCU movies have flown under the Disney flag for a gross total of near $10 billion dollars and rising on just box office.

It just makes sense for them to invest more in the success of this franchise. Long term success can be assured by more and appealing characters. Most of those event type villains Fox has. Fox knows that. Disney may not know the specifics but Marvel Studios I'm sure knows that. This is the perfect time to get them.

Neither side wants to be on the loosing end of the deal. Disney doesn't want to overpay. And Fox doesn't want to be seen as inept when Disney inevitably makes just stacks of money.

 

[Big Bang]

Hearing these lines from Fox is starting to remind me of people at Fox telling us Fant4stic was a good film.

t:

 

[Big Bang]

I'd be surprised other companies, or even companies that have goals of being big players in the future don't start zeroing in on Fox. Disney could be outbid if they are not careful.

I'd say keep an eye on Verizon.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

t:

 

[InCali]

I'd be surprised other companies, or even companies that have goals of being big players in the future don't start zeroing in on Fox. Disney could be outbid if they are not careful.

But WHO could really compete in this market? The film industry in general is having a difficult time. I think I read that the Fox library is a big selling point, but who can leverage this and actually make money on it? I'm sure these companies are out there, but there can't be many of them. To be sure, what's important to me (getting some cool Marvel movies), isn't necessarily what's important to Disney. They've got bigger fish to fry.

 

[InCali]

I'd say keep an eye on Verizon.

That makes sense.

 

[Big Bang]

As of today 11 of the MCU movies have flown under the Disney flag for a gross total of near $10 billion dollars and rising on just box office.

It just makes sense for them to invest more in the success of this franchise. Long term success can be assured by more and appealing characters. Most of those event type villains Fox has. Fox knows that. Disney may not know the specifics but Marvel Studios I'm sure knows that. This is the perfect time to get them.

Neither side wants to be on the loosing end of the deal. Disney doesn't want to overpay. And Fox doesn't want to be seen as inept when Disney inevitably makes just stacks of money.

Compound that with merchandise, home video revenue, theme park rights (Avatar is a huge one), and so on.

The implications go way, way beyond just the Marvel or even Star Wars film rights.

Also consider that some of the properties under Fox pull in revenue from Universal Studios theme parks.

 

[InCali]

I'd say keep an eye on Verizon.

OK. I was just thinking. Say Verizon does come in and gets these Fox properties. Are they really that interested in making movies about FF, Dr. Doom, X-Men, etc. or might they be more inclined to allow Marvel access to these characters? What I'm getting at is that maybe it's a win for us (those who are just looking at the little picture) to have these properties just about ANYWHERE but Fox.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Compound that with merchandise, home video revenue, theme park rights (Avatar is a huge one), and so on.

The implications go way, way beyond just the Marvel or even Star Wars film rights.

Also consider that some of the properties under Fox pull in revenue from Universal Studios theme parks.

Avatar is a big, mostly ignored piece of all this. As it stands now, Disney is pumping up interest in a new Avatar film with their new land at Animal Kingdom. I'm sure they'd like the fruits of that to go in their pockets rather than Fox's and having the theme park and film feeding off one another under Disney's umbrella will increase the potential of each.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

OK. I was just thinking. Say Verizon does come in and gets these Fox properties. Are they really that interested in making movies about FF, Dr. Doom, X-Men, etc. or might they be more inclined to allow Marvel access to these characters? What I'm getting at is that maybe it's a win for us (those who are just looking at the little picture) to have these properties just about ANYWHERE but Fox.

I think this is very good for us no matter how things specifically shake out.

Even if nothing really changes, we're seeing Fox's cold-feet regarding their film business, and I think the last thing they want to do in this climate is risk more money on an FF film. So it's becoming less and less likely that Fox will make a film before the deadline.

And if someone other than Disney buys the studio, I think they will recognize - as all of us do - that the real value Fox holds is X-men. Nobody else is going to want to screw around with FF.

And with the legal proceedings, government oversight of a sale etc. that both Fox and the new hypothetical buyer will be dealing with, nobody is going to want to also be dealing with the tricky issue of getting an FF film made under the gun. When deals like that happen, those involved want to simplify things as much as possible and avoid conflicts and the FF situation isn't simple and isn't something anybody is going to want to be dealing with if those other things are going on.

There are an increasing number of scenarios in which Marvel gets the rights back and a dwindling number of scenarios in which they don't.

 

[NHawk19]

But WHO could really compete in this market? The film industry in general is having a difficult time. I think I read that the Fox library is a big selling point, but who can leverage this and actually make money on it? I'm sure these companies are out there, but there can't be many of them. To be sure, what's important to me (getting some cool Marvel movies), isn't necessarily what's important to Disney. They've got bigger fish to fry.

I'd watch Netflix, Or the Triple A. (Apple, Alphabet, Amazon).

They'll need content and Netflix already stands to loose with Disney starting their own streaming service.

 

[Tymminator]

Keeping hope alive!

Definelty. You wont see the Starjammers or even the X-Men in space and done correctly in those contexts unless the MCU is involved.

 

[Dark Raven]

I wonder if Marvel would even cast Wolverine more accurate to the source material with a much shorter guy. Fox have remade Wolverine in Jackman's image, and that is how the general public probably now accept him and see him. Even if Marvel came up with a completely accurate version of Wolverine, he'd still be compared to Jackman and the taller version of the character.

So do Marvel go for a similar look and vibe, or do they just go for complete accuracy now and risk being thought of as inferior in the public's minds?

 

[InCali]

I'd watch Netflix, Or the Triple A. (Apple, Alphabet, Amazon).

They'll need content and Netflix already stands to loose with Disney starting their own streaming service.

Right, but none of them are going to create big budget movies as far as I can tell. I could actually care less about Disney's plans for streaming services. If they do, great. If not, BFD (to me). I understand it's billions for them so I get why they are mainly interested.

I'm mainly looking at this from my own selfish perspective. t:

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I wonder if Marvel would even cast Wolverine more accurate to the source material with a much shorter guy. Fox have remade Wolverine in Jackman's image, and that is how the general public probably now accept him and see him. Even if Marvel came up with a completely accurate version of Wolverine, he'd still be compared to Jackman and the taller version of the character.

So do Marvel go for a similar look and vibe, or do they just go for complete accuracy now and risk being thought of as inferior in the public's minds?

I think they'll do it right. They'll get a bad-ass who makes Jackman look like a Teddy Bear and have everyone saying: "Ohhhhh, that's how cool this character can really be."

Wolverine vs. Hulk will be EPIC and the kind of thing Jackman and Fox never could have come close to.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

How about James Caan's son for Wolverine?

 

[NHawk19]

Right, but none of them are going to create big budget movies as far as I can tell. I could actually care less about Disney's plans for streaming services. If they do, great. If not, BFD (to me). I understand it's billions for them so I get why they are mainly interested.

I'm mainly looking at this from my own selfish perspective. t:

Thing is Disney might just be leading the way. Warners could decide to create a service that only streams Warners, etc. This could be a way to start to protect against it. That way they have a way to release legitimate content beyond just a streaming service but also have exclusive rights to the content they create or franchises they build.

 

[The Infernal]

Hearing these lines from Fox is starting to remind me of people at Fox telling us Fant4stic was a good film.

Burn. lol

 

[ADollarADay]

I think this is very good for us no matter how things specifically shake out.

Even if nothing really changes, we're seeing Fox's cold-feet regarding their film business, and I think the last thing they want to do in this climate is risk more money on an FF film. So it's becoming less and less likely that Fox will make a film before the deadline.

And if someone other than Disney buys the studio, I think they will recognize - as all of us do - that the real value Fox holds is X-men. Nobody else is going to want to screw around with FF.

And with the legal proceedings, government oversight of a sale etc. that both Fox and the new hypothetical buyer will be dealing with, nobody is going to want to also be dealing with the tricky issue of getting an FF film made under the gun. When deals like that happen, those involved want to simplify things as much as possible and avoid conflicts and the FF situation isn't simple and isn't something anybody is going to want to be dealing with if those other things are going on.

There are an increasing number of scenarios in which Marvel gets the rights back and a dwindling number of scenarios in which they don't.

Careful with the optimism. A new, non Disney buyer can easily say, "new management, new leadership, new refresh on the movies".

Netflix/CBS, for example, would certainly want to keep all the licenses and produce everything in house.