The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - Part 12

[2kt09]

Hawley Hype

 

[eon001]

Ok I'm grasping at straws with this but what if the next Fantastic Four was like a part Mockumentry, part film like District 9?

The Fantastic 4: Attack of the Mole men.
The "documentary" takes you on a detailed look on what really happened when the Molemen attacked New York.
We also get a detailed look at the 4 heroes that fought the subterranean threat on that fateful day.

Footage from Cell phones, CCTV, news camera's etc. So it's found footage-ish, but it cuts to actual move shots like District 9 did in it's 3rd act.

It's set like 5-6 years after the the F4 become the team, We get in depth interviews with each member so that acts as a pseudo origin to them as team. The describe the cosmic incident that changed them.

Valeria And Franklin exist so the movie can have that kid element the studio feels so desperate to include.

I was just thinking outside of the box. This idea skips the origin, hit's the ground running, has story telling elements we haven't seen in a big budget comic book movie yet. They've tried conventional, they've gone dark and gritty body horror. Why not found footage/documentary/movie?

District 9 is my main source of inspiration, but I also need to give credit to "What we do in the shadows" and Stephen Dorff's "American Hero".



And for anyone that's forgotten, Distrct 9.

 

[NealKenneth]

This is a cool idea for how to do the origin again. Wouldn't want the whole movie in that fashion though

 

[ADollarADay]

Talking about XMen and how it is harder to get control back got me doing some back of the paper analysis on which known Lucasfilm and Marvel legacy contracts would be easier for Disney to regain full control. As you can see IMO, FF is in the middle of the pack, and other stuff would be easier, cheaper to get.

1) Indiana Jones 1-4 distribution rights: Paramount has full control of Indy 1-4 distribution rights on all formats. Paramount is struggling now and can't get a hit, great timing to get those legacy distribution rights from them.
2) Paramount Pictures participation rights in future Indiana Jones movies: As part of the deal with Disney on future movies' distribution rights, Paramount will receive financial participation in future Indiana Jones movies. Just like #1, given Paramount's current situation, it's a good time to get those rights
3) Hulk distribution rights from Universal: Again, getting distribution rights should be easier than production rights. Plus Marvel can do everything they want with Hulk, as they are doing a 3 story arc with him now. I'm assuming a similar situation with Namor, so he'd be in this position as well.
4) ANH distribution rights: Given the significance of this movie, it may be down a couple of spots on this list, but given they can only distribute it, the financial benefits and upsides are not all there like the ones below
5) FF production and distribution rights: While they lost money on this franchise, they see potential and can hold it hostage while writing off the expenses associated with it as tax deductible. Fox also gets a percentage of the movie merchandise.
6a) XMen production and distribution rights: Mixed bag of successful and bombs. Fox gets a percentage of movie merchandise and can hold the license hostage as long as possible
6b) Deadpool production and distribution rights: A major hit, both on the screen and in the merchandise department. Fox made major bank with Deadpool and if the sequel is as successful, then Fox will keep Deadpool for a s long as possible
6c) Spiderman production and distribution rights: Spidey is literally the only character and franchise worth half a cent that Sony has. They are a lot more stable now than they were in 2015, so a deal with them for their only decent movie franchise seems unlikely
9) Marvel east of the Mississippi theme park rights and other theme park rights: Just like FF's contract, Comcast is going to keep this hostage for as long as they can

 

[eon001]

This is a cool idea for how to do the origin again. Wouldn't want the whole movie in that fashion though

It wouldn't. If you've seen District 9, the first act is in a mockumetry style, then is switches to a straight up movie half way through.

The "found footage" and "real life witness accounts" is a good way for you to invest in the world before the sci fi adventure starts.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

5) FF production and distribution rights: While they lost money on this franchise, they see potential and can hold it hostage while writing off the expenses associated with it as tax deductible. Fox also gets a percentage of the movie merchandise.

Are you saying you think they'll actually make another movie or they'll just ride it out until 2021 and continue paying the maintenance fees before dropping it?

I can't imagine shareholders saying: "Another $70 million dollar loss and huge drop in stock value? Cool! That means less taxes!"

I mean, I could donate $30,000 to charity and reduce my total tax bill by maybe $5000, but I'm still writing a big check. It's not free money.

As for movie merchandise, that doesn't provide much incentive, because X% of zero is still zero.

 

[UltimatePyro9]

Speaking of, Fant4stic was a reason cited that FOX had a 28% decline in revenue at the end of 2015:

https://www.newsarama.com/26632-fantastic-four-blamed-for-declining-fox-revenue.html

That also will be remembered.

 

[ADollarADay]

Thanks for the info!

I found a newer document and I might have been wrong. I will let you know once I read it.

Are you saying you think they'll actually make another movie or they'll just ride it out until 2021 and continue paying the maintenance fees before dropping it?

I can't imagine shareholders saying: "Another $70 million dollar loss and huge drop in stock value? Cool! That means less taxes!"

I mean, I could donate $30,000 to charity and reduce my total tax bill by maybe $5000, but I'm still writing a big check. It's not free money.

As for movie merchandise, that doesn't provide much incentive, because X% of zero is still zero.

You think it'd be easier, or cheaper, to get production and distribution rights to the FF where creative and financial potential is huge as opposed to some of those other distribution rights where creative and financial gains are limited? Because that's highly unlikely.

Furthermore, the extension period for FF is probably 11 months from the release of the previous film (based on release and production schedule of Fan4stic compared to FF: ROTSS which we all know was coming down the wire to be reverted to Marvel). Fox DEFINITELY paid the fee to Marvel by July 2016 otherwise Feige would have confirmed the rights reverted when he was asked about it in June 2017 and again in July 2017. Gunn would have also confirmed when asked about it.

FYI, the extension fee Sony had to pay Marvel prior to the 2011 deal was 5MM after 9 months from the previous movie release. It is a one time fee per movie and not a monthly or yearly fee. They then had to pay Marvel 10MM (going up for every movie going forward up to a limit) an upfront fee to start shooting the next movie. All that money, though, would be taken out of the royalty fee Marvel received from the BO gross, which was 5%. So, the extension fee and advanced fee are simply "down payments" to make the movie. Ghost Rider returned so fast to Marvel because Sony didn't pay the extension fee.

Even if Fox didn't pay that much, and only paid 30% of that value, that is still a significant chunk of change for someone not planning to keep the rights. I truly believe they plan to reboot it again, unfortunately.

FF contract is probably written as filming/photography must start 6 years after the previous film and released 8 years after the previous film, with an option from Fox to pay to extend the license within 11 months of release from the previous film, making the extension period 6y11m and 8y11m. If that is true, then Fox has until 07/2021 to start production on the next FF movie.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I found a newer document and I might have been wrong. I will let you know once I read it.



You think it'd be easier, or cheaper, to get production and distribution rights to the FF where creative and financial potential is huge as opposed to some of those other distribution rights where creative and financial gains are limited? Because that's highly unlikely.

Furthermore, the extension period for FF is probably 11 months from the release of the previous film (based on release and production schedule of Fan4stic compared to FF: ROTSS which we all know was coming down the wire to be reverted to Marvel). Fox DEFINITELY paid the fee to Marvel by July 2016 otherwise Feige would have confirmed the rights reverted when he was asked about it in June 2017 and again in July 2017. Gunn would have also confirmed when asked about it.

FYI, the extension fee Sony had to pay Marvel prior to the 2011 deal was 5MM after 9 months from the previous movie release. It is a one time fee per movie and not a monthly or yearly fee. They then had to pay Marvel 10MM (going up for every movie going forward up to a limit) an upfront fee to start shooting the next movie. All that money, though, would be taken out of the royalty fee Marvel received from the BO gross, which was 5%. So, the extension fee and advanced fee are simply "down payments" to make the movie. Ghost Rider returned so fast to Marvel because Sony didn't pay the extension fee.

Even if Fox didn't pay that much, and only paid 30% of that value, that is still a significant chunk of change for someone not planning to keep the rights. I truly believe they plan to reboot it again, unfortunately.

FF contract is probably written as filming/photography must start 6 years after the previous film and released 8 years after the previous film, with an option from Fox to pay to extend the license within 11 months of release from the previous film, making the extension period 6y11m and 8y11m. If that is true, then Fox has until 07/2021 to start production on the next FF movie.

If I were Fox, I'd pay the relatively small fee to try to get something out of Marvel. If Fox offered to completely turn over the rights to Marvel right now for $10 million, Marvel would jump at the deal. Fox is almost certainly hoping for and holding out for more, but they know they can get more than their money back at any time over the next several years. So it would be a no-brainer to pay the fee.

 

[Dasher10]

It's not a simple matter of this character could be used in Story X and that character can be used in story Y. From that point of view, Marvel doesn't need any of the missing characters. They have thousands of characters they could use to tell an infinite number of stories.

But Doom and Galactus are iconic characters that define the Marvel universe. Without them, the MCU will never feel right.

I don't know about that. I'd rather have Kang and Annihilus back since Kang Dynasty is the greatest Avengers story of all time. Ever. Period. Better than Korvac Saga. Better than Galactic Storm. Better than Civil War. Better than Celestial Madonna. Better than Lost In Space and Time. I'd argue that Infinity Gauntlet and Ultron Unlimited give it competition but Kurt Busiek's final Avengers arc is still THE Avengers story.

Annihilus is the villain who kickstarted the modern incarnation of the Guardians of the Galaxy. Annihilation is still a classic. It's also still sold out in both hardcover and paperback so nobody can read it but it's a very, very good story and it's why the Guardians won't feel right until Annihilus and everything that comes with him (Blastaar, Nega Bands, etc).

 

[ADollarADay]

If I were Fox, I'd pay the relatively small fee to try to get something out of Marvel. If Fox offered to completely turn over the rights to Marvel right now for $10 million, Marvel would jump at the deal. Fox is almost certainly hoping for and holding out for more, but they know they can get more than their money back at any time over the next several years. So it would be a no-brainer to pay the fee.

Using your rationale, Sony should have done the same for Ghost Rider.

 

[UltimatePyro9]

TBF, both Ghost Rider movies weren’t well received, so I don’t know if it would’ve been worth it.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Using your rationale, Sony should have done the same for Ghost Rider.

TBF, both Ghost Rider movies weren’t well received, so I don’t know if it would’ve been worth it.

Yep. Marvel wouldn't have paid anything for Ghost Rider. Ghost rider doesn't have Doom, Galactus etc. and Marvel wasn't anxious to make another Ghost rider film, so there's no real comparison.

 

[Dasher10]

Yep. Marvel wouldn't have paid anything for Ghost Rider. Ghost rider doesn't have Doom, Galactus etc. and Marvel wasn't anxious to make another Ghost rider film, so there's no real comparison.

There's also the fact that Fox may own Mephisto since when Sony let the Ghost Rider rights go, Mephisto may have become part of the Silver Surfer rights.

 

[Zarex]

From a Collider Interview with Laurence (Bill Foster) Fishburne. Sounds like he wanted to do a Surfer solo flick with Marvel studios:

I went to Marvel and pitched them something that really couldn’t work out—there was a lot of legal red tape that just [was] something they couldn’t work out.​

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[First Avenger]

The full excerpt:

"I’m developing something else for Marvel that I can’t talk about. It’s gonna be really cool. It’s gonna change the world, we hope (laughs). I went to Marvel and pitched them something that really couldn’t work out—there was a lot of legal red tape that just [was] something they couldn’t work out. But then they came back with the offer for Ant-Man and the Wasp and then they said, ‘Hey, what do you think of this?’ and I went ‘Oh yeah that, yes!’ so…”

Interesting.

Then again:

With the success of Spider-Man: Homecoming and the collaboration with Sony, has that moved the needle at all on the possibility of doing the same kind of situation with Fox for the Fantastic Four?

No, there have been no discussions since Spider-Man or before Spider-Man. But we do have Spider-Man in the MCU, which is pretty exciting!

http://www.denofgeek.com/us/movies/...d-the-future-of-the-marvel-cinematic-universe

 

[ADollarADay]

TBF, both Ghost Rider movies weren’t well received, so I don’t know if it would’ve been worth it.

That's kind of my point. Fox paid the extension fee, so they obviously see value there to try again. Of course, Marvel can pay up or Fox could fumble again and miss the deadline like they did with Daredevil.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

That's kind of my point. Fox paid the extension fee, so they obviously see value there to try again. Of course, Marvel can pay up or Fox could fumble again and miss the deadline like they did with Daredevil.

The FF rights have value. I would be willing to bet Marvel would write a check right now for upwards of $50 million for them (and they wouldn't have done anything like that for Ghost Rider).

But Fox wants to maximize any value they can get and since the primary value is tied to what Marvel is willing to pay, and since the amount Marvel is willing to pay would drop sharply if Fox made it known they won't be making another film, there's a large monetary incentive for Fox to at least go through the motions of planning for another film.

That's why the talk of potential films and small extension fees are so meaningless. Even if Fox has zero intention of making another film, they need to make the world and Marvel believe they're just that crazy.

And even within Fox management, it's probably not widely known what the real plans are, and real people are likely putting real time and effort into planning potential films. The few hundreds of thousands Fox is paying for that is peanuts compared to the tens of millions that ride on Marvel's belief that Fox will make another film.

But when it comes time to actually put real money behind those projects, I find it hard to believe Fox management really is that crazy/stupid.

And if, at that point, they look back and say: "Gee, we blew a few million bucks trying to make Marvel think we'd make a movie and that didn't work.", no big deal. Risking a few million with a reasonable likelihood of making tens of millions (and/or getting valuable concessions on X-Men rights) is a wise move. I would do the same thing if I were Fox management . . . though I might have blinked by now. But maybe that just means I don't have the balls it takes to play this kind of high-stakes poker.

 

[Random490]

One thing you gotta remember when thinking "we why they keep trying" is that some point in the chain of command there's an executive who has to make the decision whether to continue with FF or let it expire. And you know the moment Marvel gets it, they'll turn it into a hit. Then the investors and chairmen of Fox Studios will look at that executive and say "why could you have made a hit with the same material?" and likely be very pissed off at loosing a property. It might be safer for that executive to make another film and blame another department, director, actor, analytics, etc. to keep their job.

It's all about money and corporate politics.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

One thing you gotta remember when thinking "we why they keep trying" is that some point in the chain of command there's an executive who has to make the decision whether to continue with FF or let it expire. And you know the moment Marvel gets it, they'll turn it into a hit. Then the investors and chairmen of Fox Studios will look at that executive and say "why could you have made a hit with the same material?" and likely be very pissed off at loosing a property. It might be safer for that executive to make another film and blame another department, director, actor, analytics, etc. to keep their job.

It's all about money and corporate politics.

Yes, but but with that same concept in mind, you have to remember the decision won't be one person. Many will have a say. And we know that prior to Fant4stic some people wanted to do it and others didn't.

Those who wanted to do it ended up costing the company a lot of money and some may have even been fired. Those who didn't want to do it would have been able to say: "I told you so." And they would have been more likely to keep their jobs.

So the next time around, those "nays" will have a larger say than the "yays". They're likely to be as skeptical or more than they were before. And the "yays" who are still around will have learned their lesson and likely won't stick their head out again.

 

[ADollarADay]

The FF rights have value. I would be willing to bet Marvel would write a check right now for upwards of $50 million for them (and they wouldn't have done anything like that for Ghost Rider).

But Fox wants to maximize any value they can get and since the primary value is tied to what Marvel is willing to pay, and since the amount Marvel is willing to pay would drop sharply if Fox made it known they won't be making another film, there's a large monetary incentive for Fox to at least go through the motions of planning for another film.

That's why the talk of potential films and small extension fees are so meaningless. Even if Fox has zero intention of making another film, they need to make the world and Marvel believe they're just that crazy.

And even within Fox management, it's probably not widely known what the real plans are, and real people are likely putting real time and effort into planning potential films. The few hundreds of thousands Fox is paying for that is peanuts compared to the tens of millions that ride on Marvel's belief that Fox will make another film.

But when it comes time to actually put real money behind those projects, I find it hard to believe Fox management really is that crazy/stupid.

And if, at that point, they look back and say: "Gee, we blew a few million bucks trying to make Marvel think we'd make a movie and that didn't work.", no big deal. Risking a few million with a reasonable likelihood of making tens of millions (and/or getting valuable concessions on X-Men rights) is a wise move. I would do the same thing if I were Fox management . . . though I might have blinked by now. But maybe that just means I don't have the balls it takes to play this kind of high-stakes poker.

You have a theory and I have mine. I think your theory is heavily flawed. You probably think the same of mine.

I'll just add this, Disney doesn't need any currently licensed Marvel property. I don't think they want to pay a dime for a property they don't currently need or have plans for. Put it this way, Disney is going to be the number 1 studio in NA BO gross this year. They will have released only 8 movies compared to everybody else in double digits, and number 2, WB, will have released 18 movies by the end of the year.

They don't need to purchase any of the licenses currently out. And, if they wanted to purchase or cut a deal for FF, they would have done so already, like they did with Ironman, Thor, Cap, Avengers, and Indiana Jones.

 

[Dasher10]

You have a theory and I have mine. I think your theory is heavily flawed. You probably think the same of mine.

I'll just add this, Disney doesn't need any currently licensed Marvel property. I don't think they want to pay a dime for a property they don't currently need or have plans for. Put it this way, Disney is going to be the number 1 studio in NA BO gross this year. They will have released only 8 movies compared to everybody else in double digits, and number 2, WB, will have released 18 movies by the end of the year.

They don't need to purchase any of the licenses currently out. And, if they wanted to purchase or cut a deal for FF, they would have done so already, like they did with Ironman, Thor, Cap, Avengers, and Indiana Jones.

I'd argue that Marvel still have properties to mine. Namely, they can still put out Black Widow, War Machine and Thunderbolts on the big screen. (And with Zemo, Shocker, Ghost, Blizzard and Hyde in the MCU, T-Bolts are likely to happen.)

On the TV side, there's room for Moon Knight and Elektra on Netflix and Disney's new streaming service can accommodate Marvel Horror perfectly with Blade, Ghost Rider, Man-Thing and Werewolf By Night. Shang Chi should appear somewhere, I'm not particularly sure yet but I'd like to see something done with him.

Marvel's partnership with Sony is already producing Ultimate Spider-Man, Venom and Silver and Black.

I really feel like Marvel need to work with Universal on getting Hulk squared away, particularly since the Universal Monsters films keep failing after The Wolfman, Dracula Untold and The Mummy all bombed. Universal are sitting on a goldmine if they'd just work with Marvel and pay them to produce Hulk 2 and spin-offs for She-Hulk, Red Hulk and Totally Awesome Hulk. Marvel would have total creative control over Hulk which that lack with their partnership with Sony. Marvel would even have more control over Hulk than they do with the Netflix series. Universal need to stop being difficult and understand that Universal Monsters is a sinking ship but Hulk might actually turn a profit.

Fantastic Four don't need to return just yet considering how much the MCU can grow with current properties. X-Men would cause us to get half the Avengers material and half of what we're getting from the X-Men at this point in time. I don't want the X-Men reverting just yet. I'd rather see Marvel milk villains from the FF, particularly Kang and Annihilus in the same way that they did with Ego.

 

[guitarsingerguy]

Yep. Marvel wouldn't have paid anything for Ghost Rider. Ghost rider doesn't have Doom, Galactus etc. and Marvel wasn't anxious to make another Ghost rider film, so there's no real comparison.

And GR is a much harder sell these days. This isn't the 90's where that type of character is going to excel. He obviously has his fans, but nobody is clamoring for another GR film. Plus, like the other posters have stated, he doesn't have anyone all that appealing attached to him. If they were smart, they would have pulled a Midnight Son's type film when Blade was at it's peak. Had they gone with that instead of Trinity or perhaps even squeezed it in somewhere else, they more than likely would have had some success, but the 90's are over. And with them, the "extreme" hero has pretty much faded out with them. Although, if they make a movie based on that X-Men character X-treme, I will so be there.

 

[guitarsingerguy]

I'd argue that Marvel still have properties to mine. Namely, they can still put out Black Widow, War Machine and Thunderbolts on the big screen. (And with Zemo, Shocker, Ghost, Blizzard and Hyde in the MCU, T-Bolts are likely to happen.)

On the TV side, there's room for Moon Knight and Elektra on Netflix and Disney's new streaming service can accommodate Marvel Horror perfectly with Blade, Ghost Rider, Man-Thing and Werewolf By Night. Shang Chi should appear somewhere, I'm not particularly sure yet but I'd like to see something done with him.

Marvel's partnership with Sony is already producing Ultimate Spider-Man, Venom and Silver and Black.

I really feel like Marvel need to work with Universal on getting Hulk squared away, particularly since the Universal Monsters films keep failing after The Wolfman, Dracula Untold and The Mummy all bombed. Universal are sitting on a goldmine if they'd just work with Marvel and pay them to produce Hulk 2 and spin-offs for She-Hulk, Red Hulk and Totally Awesome Hulk. Marvel would have total creative control over Hulk which that lack with their partnership with Sony. Marvel would even have more control over Hulk than they do with the Netflix series. Universal need to stop being difficult and understand that Universal Monsters is a sinking ship but Hulk might actually turn a profit.

Fantastic Four don't need to return just yet considering how much the MCU can grow with current properties. X-Men would cause us to get half the Avengers material and half of what we're getting from the X-Men at this point in time. I don't want the X-Men reverting just yet. I'd rather see Marvel milk villains from the FF, particularly Kang and Annihilus in the same way that they did with Ego.

They're basically making Hulk movies now; they're just telling the stories in other people's movies. Feige even stated the next 3 movies he shows up in are essentially a Hulk trilogy. They can just keep using that as a workout and tell Universal to go blow.

 

[guitarsingerguy]

You have a theory and I have mine. I think your theory is heavily flawed. You probably think the same of mine.

I'll just add this, Disney doesn't need any currently licensed Marvel property. I don't think they want to pay a dime for a property they don't currently need or have plans for. Put it this way, Disney is going to be the number 1 studio in NA BO gross this year. They will have released only 8 movies compared to everybody else in double digits, and number 2, WB, will have released 18 movies by the end of the year.

They don't need to purchase any of the licenses currently out. And, if they wanted to purchase or cut a deal for FF, they would have done so already, like they did with Ironman, Thor, Cap, Avengers, and Indiana Jones.

I think you're dead wrong about the FF. I think Marvel wants them back so bad they can taste it, but if Marvel has proven one thing, it's that they're a shrewd businessman. They're gonna get what they want their way. It's only a matter of time before Fox realizes they just don't know what to do with the property, and they let it go. Marvel is just gonna sit on their hands until they can get them back their way.